Scam Circus

Sell $CA1 (-9.45%) :

🧨 Why Circus SE Is a Fragile Investment Case (Bear Take)

Let’s cut through the hype.

Circus is being marketed as a high-growth, AI-driven food automation company. But if you strip away the narrative and look at the financials, what you’re left with is a capital-dependent, pre-commercial business with a valuation that still assumes everything goes right.

1) There is no real operating track record yet

In 2024, Circus generated zero revenue from its core technology and reported roughly -€12m EBITDA.

This is not a scaling business. This is still an R&D story.

2) The valuation is based on projections, not reality

Management guides to low single-digit millions of revenue in 2025, with deliveries only starting late in the year and recurring SaaS kicking in Q4.

Yet bullish models are projecting:

• €28m revenue in 2025
• €146m in 2026
• €463m in 2027

That’s not forecasting. That’s optimism stacked on top of optimism.

3) This is fundamentally a dilution story

Over 2025 alone, Circus:

• Raised capital via rights issue (~€21m)
• Then did another capital increase (~€30m)
• Issued millions of new shares

Translation: the business is not funding itself.

It is being funded by investors.

If execution slips, expect more dilution. Simple as that.

4) “Clients” ≠ revenue

You’ll hear about REWE, Tamoil, Mangal, etc.

But:

• Framework agreements ≠ signed revenue
• Announced partnerships ≠ deployed units
• Potential contracts ≠ cash in the bank

The company itself confirmed: no core-tech revenue in 2024.

That tells you everything about where they actually are.

5) The valuation models are basically guessing

Bullish research shows valuation ranges from:

• Near zero
• To €100+ per share
• To €200+ depending on assumptions

When your valuation changes by 10x–100x based on inputs, it means one thing:

👉 The business is too immature to value properly.

6) Even after the crash, it’s not “cheap”

Yes, the stock is down massively.

But today you’re still looking at:

• ~€200m market cap
• Loss-making business
• Early-stage commercialization
• Revenue largely in the future

“Down a lot” ≠ undervalued.

7) The real risk: execution + financing

To justify the current story, Circus needs to:

• Successfully manufacture and deploy units at scale
• Convert pilots into real revenue
• Build recurring SaaS revenue
• Control costs during expansion

If even one of these breaks:

👉 They raise more capital

👉 You get diluted

🎯 Bottom line

Circus is not a proven growth company.

It is a high-risk commercialization bet funded by equity markets, where:

• Revenue is mostly future
• Economics are unproven
• Dilution is ongoing
• Valuation assumes success

That doesn’t mean it’s a fraud.

But it absolutely means:

👉 The downside is very real if execution doesn’t match the story.