On July 7, 2025, Shell released its Q2 2025 financial outlook, highlighting a mixed performance across its segments. The Integrated Gas division expects significantly weaker trading and optimization results compared to Q1, with LNG liquefaction volumes projected at 6.4–6.8 million tonnes, stable from 6.6 million tonnes in Q1. Production in this segment is forecasted at 900,000–940,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), slightly down from 927,000 boe/d in Q1. The Upstream division anticipates lower production at 1,660,000–1,760,000 boe/d, compared to 1.85 million boe/d in Q1, due to scheduled maintenance and the divestment of SPDC in Nigeria.
The Chemicals and Products segment faces challenges, with adjusted earnings expected to fall below break-even despite improved refining margins of $8.9 per barrel (up from $6.2 in Q1) and chemicals margins of $166 per tonne (up from $126). This is largely due to unplanned maintenance at the Monaca plant, reducing chemical utilization to 68–72% from 81% in Q1. However, refining utilization is set to improve to 92–96% from 85%. Marketing adjusted earnings are expected to rise, supported by sales volumes of 2.6–3 million barrels per day.
Investor sentiment turned bearish, with Shell’s stock dropping 3.14% in pre-market trading, reflecting concerns over weaker trading results and chemical losses. Posts on X noted the negative impact on the AEX index, driven by Shell’s frequent use of “significantly lower” in its outlook, signaling broader market and operational challenges. Despite this, refining margins align with strong sector trends for gasoline and diesel demand. Shell’s Renewables and Energy Solutions division projects results between a $0.4 billion loss and a $0.2 billion gain.
