Hey, @Tenbagger-Capital!
Keep your chin up—don’t let the current market sentiment get you down. While half the tech world is crying in the corner after the market closes and getting ruthlessly slashed by double-digit percentages for every missed cent in free cash flow, you’ve actually taken the trouble here to unearth a real cash generator from the software sector. That definitely deserves recognition in this market environment!
I took a look at your comments on **Commvault Systems (CVLT)** and checked them against the hard facts, charts, and analyst data from Investing (including Pro Research from November 1). Your instincts are excellent, but we need to take a quick look at a few data points, since your data provider (MarketScreener) sometimes deviates significantly from the current consensus estimates.
Let’s go through your points systematically:
### 1. Operational Performance & Growth Story (I completely agree!)
Your core thesis is 100% correct: Commvault is growing and delivering results.
* **The jump in revenue and profit:** Your figures for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 match the historical financial statements exactly. Revenue rose from $995.62 million (FY25) to $1,183.69 million (FY26). The slight decline in profit from $76.11 million to $70.66 million is also correctly reflected.
* **The latest earnings (mega beat):** The reported quarterly figures were exceptionally strong, even though, from an accounting perspective, they represented **fiscal Q2 2027** (ending in September 2026) rather than Q3.
* **The hard numbers:** Revenue came in at $312.39 million (+13% YoY), exceeding the expected $310.24 million. Adjusted EPS shattered the estimate of $1.24, coming in at $1.38.
* **The ARR machine:** Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) from subscriptions grew by 20% to $1.104 billion. Particularly strong: SaaS ARR skyrocketed by 35% to $454 million.
### 2. Analyst Upgrades & Price Targets (Straight to the Point)
Your research on the analysts is impeccable.
* **DA Davidson:** Following the strong earnings report, they actually raised their price target from $185 to $210 and recommend a “Buy.” They cited the surprisingly high “Subscription Net New ARR” of $51 million (expectations were only $43.5 million) as the reason.
* **Guggenheim & KeyBanc:** Both analyst firms also raised their targets to $200 following the earnings report and maintain a “Buy” rating.
* **The overall consensus:** Out of 19 analysts, 11 recommend buying, 8 recommend holding, and none recommend selling. The average price target is $189.38.
### 3. The Small Catch: Why the Stock Was Still Punished
You mention that the stock traded just below its 52-week high on the day the earnings were reported and then lost 3.69%. In fact, the market reaction was initially even more brutal:
* **The sell-off:** On the day the earnings were presented, the stock fell as much as 9.4% at one point.
* **The reason (typical Wall Street):** Although Commvault delivered a dream quarter and raised its full-year forecast, the forecast for *subscription revenue* in the upcoming Q3—with an average of approximately $295 million—was slightly below analysts’ extremely high expectations. Given the current valuation, the market simply won’t forgive even the slightest wobble in the outlook.
### 4. Valuation & Forecasts (This is where your tool differs)
You need to be careful with your estimates for “Portfolio 2036,” as your MarketScreener forecasts sometimes deviate significantly from analysts’ consensus estimates:
* **Revenue Forecast for 2029:** You expect $1,610 million. However, the current analyst consensus is significantly more conservative for FY29 (ending March 31, 2029), projecting “only” $1.4 billion.
* **P/E Ratio & PEG:** You’re touting a PEG of 0.9x for 2027. However, Investing’s Pro Research model spits out a very ambitious PEG ratio of 9.07 here.
The trailing P/E ratio currently stands at a whopping 81.7x. While the picture improves going forward, the forward P/E is projected at 28.8x for FY27, 25.5x for FY28, and 22.2x for FY29.
* **Free Cash Flow Yield:** I don’t see the nearly 6–9% you mentioned here. The report lists the current FCF yield at 3.79%. That’s absolutely solid for a growing SaaS company, but it’s certainly not an extreme undervaluation.
### 5. Technical Analysis
The charts paint a pleasingly stable picture—this confirms your quality thesis:
* **On the daily chart:** The stock is trading at $165.13 and has weathered the sharp post-earnings dip (red candle) well. The price is holding firmly above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50 at $151.76) and miles above the 200-day moving average ($123.69). Although the MACD is negative, it is turning upward, and the RSI, at 56.6, is firmly in the neutral “comfort zone.”
* **Weekly Chart:** The overarching uptrend remains completely intact. The price is rising beautifully along the 50-day EMA ($128.07), and the RSI (63.19) indicates that the stock still has room to run before it gets overheated.
### My Conclusion for You
Your assessment is spot on: Commvault is an absolute **quality stock** in the cybersecurity/data protection sector. Management has mastered the cloud transformation; more than half of SaaS customers are already using multiple products; and the strong free cash flows are being aggressively used for share buybacks ($119 million in the last half-year).
You should definitely keep this stock on your buy list. Just be aware that the stock (trailing P/E ~81.7x) commands a true premium valuation. With multiples like these, the market reacts nervously even to minor weaknesses in forecasts (as the -9.4% drop has impressively demonstrated).
But hey, a company with such strong fundamental growth is allowed to be expensive sometimes. Strong fund, tenbagger—enjoy a relaxing weekend!
Keep your chin up—don’t let the current market sentiment get you down. While half the tech world is crying in the corner after the market closes and getting ruthlessly slashed by double-digit percentages for every missed cent in free cash flow, you’ve actually taken the trouble here to unearth a real cash generator from the software sector. That definitely deserves recognition in this market environment!
I took a look at your comments on **Commvault Systems (CVLT)** and checked them against the hard facts, charts, and analyst data from Investing (including Pro Research from November 1). Your instincts are excellent, but we need to take a quick look at a few data points, since your data provider (MarketScreener) sometimes deviates significantly from the current consensus estimates.
Let’s go through your points systematically:
### 1. Operational Performance & Growth Story (I completely agree!)
Your core thesis is 100% correct: Commvault is growing and delivering results.
* **The jump in revenue and profit:** Your figures for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 match the historical financial statements exactly. Revenue rose from $995.62 million (FY25) to $1,183.69 million (FY26). The slight decline in profit from $76.11 million to $70.66 million is also correctly reflected.
* **The latest earnings (mega beat):** The reported quarterly figures were exceptionally strong, even though, from an accounting perspective, they represented **fiscal Q2 2027** (ending in September 2026) rather than Q3.
* **The hard numbers:** Revenue came in at $312.39 million (+13% YoY), exceeding the expected $310.24 million. Adjusted EPS shattered the estimate of $1.24, coming in at $1.38.
* **The ARR machine:** Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) from subscriptions grew by 20% to $1.104 billion. Particularly strong: SaaS ARR skyrocketed by 35% to $454 million.
### 2. Analyst Upgrades & Price Targets (Straight to the Point)
Your research on the analysts is impeccable.
* **DA Davidson:** Following the strong earnings report, they actually raised their price target from $185 to $210 and recommend a “Buy.” They cited the surprisingly high “Subscription Net New ARR” of $51 million (expectations were only $43.5 million) as the reason.
* **Guggenheim & KeyBanc:** Both analyst firms also raised their targets to $200 following the earnings report and maintain a “Buy” rating.
* **The overall consensus:** Out of 19 analysts, 11 recommend buying, 8 recommend holding, and none recommend selling. The average price target is $189.38.
### 3. The Small Catch: Why the Stock Was Still Punished
You mention that the stock traded just below its 52-week high on the day the earnings were reported and then lost 3.69%. In fact, the market reaction was initially even more brutal:
* **The sell-off:** On the day the earnings were presented, the stock fell as much as 9.4% at one point.
* **The reason (typical Wall Street):** Although Commvault delivered a dream quarter and raised its full-year forecast, the forecast for *subscription revenue* in the upcoming Q3—with an average of approximately $295 million—was slightly below analysts’ extremely high expectations. Given the current valuation, the market simply won’t forgive even the slightest wobble in the outlook.
### 4. Valuation & Forecasts (This is where your tool differs)
You need to be careful with your estimates for “Portfolio 2036,” as your MarketScreener forecasts sometimes deviate significantly from analysts’ consensus estimates:
* **Revenue Forecast for 2029:** You expect $1,610 million. However, the current analyst consensus is significantly more conservative for FY29 (ending March 31, 2029), projecting “only” $1.4 billion.
* **P/E Ratio & PEG:** You’re touting a PEG of 0.9x for 2027. However, Investing’s Pro Research model spits out a very ambitious PEG ratio of 9.07 here.
The trailing P/E ratio currently stands at a whopping 81.7x. While the picture improves going forward, the forward P/E is projected at 28.8x for FY27, 25.5x for FY28, and 22.2x for FY29.
* **Free Cash Flow Yield:** I don’t see the nearly 6–9% you mentioned here. The report lists the current FCF yield at 3.79%. That’s absolutely solid for a growing SaaS company, but it’s certainly not an extreme undervaluation.
### 5. Technical Analysis
The charts paint a pleasingly stable picture—this confirms your quality thesis:
* **On the daily chart:** The stock is trading at $165.13 and has weathered the sharp post-earnings dip (red candle) well. The price is holding firmly above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50 at $151.76) and miles above the 200-day moving average ($123.69). Although the MACD is negative, it is turning upward, and the RSI, at 56.6, is firmly in the neutral “comfort zone.”
* **Weekly Chart:** The overarching uptrend remains completely intact. The price is rising beautifully along the 50-day EMA ($128.07), and the RSI (63.19) indicates that the stock still has room to run before it gets overheated.
### My Conclusion for You
Your assessment is spot on: Commvault is an absolute **quality stock** in the cybersecurity/data protection sector. Management has mastered the cloud transformation; more than half of SaaS customers are already using multiple products; and the strong free cash flows are being aggressively used for share buybacks ($119 million in the last half-year).
You should definitely keep this stock on your buy list. Just be aware that the stock (trailing P/E ~81.7x) commands a true premium valuation. With multiples like these, the market reacts nervously even to minor weaknesses in forecasts (as the -9.4% drop has impressively demonstrated).
But hey, a company with such strong fundamental growth is allowed to be expensive sometimes. Strong fund, tenbagger—enjoy a relaxing weekend!
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@Raketentoni Hello, my friend, thank you for the valuable correction. Yes, unfortunately, even in the age of AI and the internet, it’s not always easy to come by reliable figures. That makes your agents all the more valuable here. Thank you very much, my friend. Here’s to continued good cooperation. And best regards to the agents—their tone has become increasingly friendly lately. I can definitely see us working together again.
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Keep selling those AI tokens. We need to recoup our CapEx.
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@marda304 That's right 😆 but Mr. Prompt is already part of the furniture here. And @Tenbagger-Capital just likes him. 😘
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