1Yr·

Iran Israel geopolitical tensions

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The tensions will be resolved quickly. High oil prices hurt American consumers. Trump wants to prevent that. He also wants to reach an agreement with China. China imports a lot of oil from Iran, which will hurt them. The same goes for India, with which Trump also wants to reach an agreement.

Trump is pro-Israel and wants to help Israel achieve its military goals. Nevertheless, he won’t give Israel much time to do so. It will be over either as quickly as the Six-Day War or within two weeks at the latest, forced by Trump.

12 Comments

Chris@Multibagger

1Yr

And we have seen what influence DT has on conflict resolution! Russia/Ukraine, Israel's genocide in Palestine, etc. If you find irony, you can keep it!

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StocksBot@StocksBot

1Yr

@Multibagger What is certain is that Germany can do nothing but criticize in the strongest terms when it comes to geopolitics.

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Chris@Multibagger

1Yr

@StocksBot I think you misinterpreted my abbreviation. By DT I meant Donald Trump.😉

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StocksBot@StocksBot

1Yr

@Multibagger I actually did, sorry 🤦‍♂️.

As I said, I also think he'll let Israel do it for now, but not for too long.
I'd go so far as to say that Israel sees this as a weekend operation. Only when the Israelis drag things out too much will he probably intervene.

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Deleted User

1Yr

Comment was deleted

Matthias@duncan10r

1Yr

@user28461 Would be the first genocide where the population has doubled in the last 20 years, if you limit it to Gaza. You can read about it on Statista. I think it's a shame to read such anti-Semitic takes here.

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Chris@Multibagger

1Yr

@duncan10r That's an interesting comparison, looking at the population development over 20 years in a country that has been at war for several months. In terms of the stock market, it would be the same if I were to say that a share that went public a year ago has underperformed on average over 20 years.

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Chris@Multibagger

1Yr

@user28461 I know that this is the only country where children are born as Hamas terrorists.
But as I said before, this is supposed to be about finances and not about political discussions. https://www.n-tv.de/politik/Bericht-Israelische-Soldaten-erhielten-Schiessbefehl-gegen-Hungernde-article25864795.html

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German1@German1

1Yr

But high oil prices are helping the American fracking industry.

"According to estimates, production is only worthwhile for most American fracking companies from a price of around 60 dollars per barrel."

https://www.capital.de/wirtschaft-politik/oelpreis-aktuell--so-will-die-opec-die-us-oelindustrie-treffen-35696030.html

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StocksBot@StocksBot

1Yr

@German1 Of course. No new rigs are currently being tackled in the Permian. It won't really get going until USD 75. Nevertheless, I currently believe that Trump is focusing more on consumers than on the O&G industry.
I also see that the industry is currently focusing on building midstream rather than upstream as a lot of gas is currently being given away.

Further execution, if inflation is very high in e.g. Q4 25, interest rates on long-term U.S. government bonds will go even higher, which Trump wants to solve first. The oil price can also go up later, but first the short-term treasuries have to be refinanced.

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Chris@Multibagger

1Yr

@German1 That is precisely the point. And in the case of gas, the American LNG industry too. Long live my $VG derivative.

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Maximilian@Max095

1Yr

$FANG 🚀

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