Summary
A balanced view: Almonty’s tungsten business is stronger than ever from an operational standpoint, but the stock price doesn’t reflect that. The stock is trading at approximately $13.60, about 44% below its 52-week high of $24.41, even though revenue in the second quarter surged 498% to 43.0 million CAD, and the company holds CAD 1.23 billion in cash following a convertible bond issuance of over USD 800 million. Since September 9, the stock has lost about a quarter of its value, and the 200-day moving average was crossed downward on September 14. The net income of CAD 181.8 million stems almost entirely from non-cash valuation effects (CAD 173.1 million); on an operational basis, adjusted EBITDA stood at CAD 17.6 million. At the same time, the Sangdong mine in South Korea has been ramping up since June; the off-take agreement with GTP (Plansee) was expanded by 40% in volume; a take-or-pay agreement was added with Sandvik; and a share buyback program of up to $300 million is underway. Analysts are almost unanimously positive: 10 out of 11 recommend buying the stock, with an average price target of 24.33 USD; only Goldman Sachs maintains a neutral rating. On October 5, Almonty also announced a change in auditors to PwC and a legal settlement regarding the correction of previous disclosures about its management history.
Key Points
Stock price: approx. $13.60 (Nasdaq), 52-week high $24.41, gap of approx. 44% Q2 2026: Revenue +498% to CAD 43.0 million, gross margin 60.7%, adjusted EBITDA CAD 17.6 million; net income CAD 181.8 million, of which CAD 173.1 million were valuation effects with no cash impactCash on hand: CAD 1.23 billion (June 30) following a convertible bond issuance of USD 800 millionSangdong: Processing has been underway since June; Phase I capacity is 640,000 metric tons of ore per year; GTP off-take agreement: extended by six years, 40% higher volume, 6.3% better price; Take-or-pay agreement with Sandvik (Sept. 17)Stock buyback of up to $300 million over 36 months, starting Aug. 24, 2026Analysts: 10 out of 11 recommend “Buy,” average price target of $24.33 (range $12.95 to $32.50), Goldman Sachs: Neutral; 200-day moving average crossed downward on September 14, 2026; now listed only on Nasdaq and Frankfurt; no dividend; next quarterly earnings expected in early November 2026
What are the current key metrics for Almonty Industries stock? (As of October 7, 2026)
Almonty Industries stock is trading at approximately $13.60 with a market capitalization of about $3.8 billion, second-quarter revenue of CAD 43.0 million, and no dividend.
Key FigureValueDate
Price (XETRA: A414Q8)
approx. 13.34 EUR / approx. 16.62 USD
July 15, 2026
52-week high (ATH)
CAD 33.35 (approx. EUR 22.50)
April 17, 2026
52-Week Low
CAD 4.70 (approx. EUR 3.20)
July 2025
Distance from 52-week high
approx. −35%
July 15, 2026
Year-to-date performance 2026
+85–92% (depending on the reference point)
July 15, 2026
12-month performance
+200–245%
July 15, 2026
Market Capitalization
approx. 3.64 billion EUR
July 2026
Annualized Volatility
approx. 97% — extremely high
July 2026
Revenue Q1 2026
$25.4 million (+221% YoY)
Q1 2026
Cash Position (March 31, 2026)
$259.9 million
Q1 2026
Working Capital
$169.5 million
Q1 2026
Sangdong Production Start
July 1, 2026 — officially operational
July 1, 2026
Ore in Stock (Sangdong)
139,700 metric tons (approx. USD 68 million gross value)
July 2026
WKN / ISIN / Ticker
A414Q8 / CA0203987072 / ALM
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Stock Exchange Listing
Toronto (TSX) · Frankfurt (XETRA) · NASDAQ
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Index Inclusion
Russell 1000 + Russell 3000 (effective June 29, 2026)
June 29, 2026
DA Davidson: Price Target
$33.00 (raised from $25.00)
July 10, 2026
Oppenheimer: Price Target
$25.00 — Buy recommendation
June 2026
Pentagon Deadline
January 1, 2027 — Ban on Chinese tungsten in U.S. defense equipment
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Dividend
None
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Next Quarterly Results (Q2)
approx. August 2026
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What news is currently driving Almonty Industries stock?
The most important news regarding Almonty Industries stock from the past few weeks at a glance:
Date | News | Details | Assessment
October 5, 2026
Change of Auditor to PwC
Almonty announces the change of its auditor from Zeifmans to PwC, as well as a legal settlement to correct previous public disclosures regarding its management history. According to Simply Wall St, details of the settlement have not yet been specified, and the stock has shown little reaction.
Watch
September 28, 2026
Sphene Capital Confirms “Buy” Rating
The price target is revised from 38.90 CAD to 26.40 USD, with a 36-month investment horizon. Reasons include, among others, the long-term off-take agreement for tailings from the Los Santos mine in Spain.
Bullish
September 23, 2026
First Tungsten Production Since 1993 in Sangdong
Almonty marks the first tungsten production in South Korea since 1993, a milestone on the path to commercial operation. Nevertheless, the stock falls 5.09% to 13.62 USD on this day.
Mixed
September 17, 2026
Take-or-pay agreement with Sandvik
A multi-year agreement with a Sandvik subsidiary for the recovery of tungsten from the tailings piles at Los Santos in Spain. Purchase volumes are thus contractually guaranteed.
Bullish
September 14, 2026
200-day moving average crossed downward
The stock falls below the 200-day moving average, a technically negative signal following the pullback from around $19 in early September.
Bearish
September 8–9, 2026
Rally; Jefferies initiates coverage with a “Buy” rating
On September 8, the stock jumps 8.82% to $19.12 and falls 4.13% to $18.33 the following day. Jefferies initiates coverage of Almonty with a “Buy” rating and a price target of $26.25.
Bullish
Late Aug. 2026
Goldman Sachs initiates coverage with a “Neutral” rating
Goldman Sachs initiates coverage on the stock with a “Neutral” rating. According to reports, the rationale is that the current price already reflects the company’s potential.
Neutral
August 24, 2026
Share buyback program launched
Up to $300 million, or 14.4 million shares, over 36 months. Management sees a gap between the stock price and the value of the tungsten assets.
Bullish
September 1, 2026
Delisting from the ASX
Almonty is focusing trading on the Nasdaq (ALM) and Frankfurt (ALI1). The majority of trading volume was already taking place on the Nasdaq anyway.
Neutral
August 11, 2026
Q2: Revenue +498%
Revenue: CAD 43.0 million; adjusted EBITDA: CAD 17.6 million; net income: CAD 181.8 million (of which CAD 173.1 million was due to valuation effects). Cash of CAD 1.23 billion following the conversion of the USD 800 million convertible bond.
Very bullish
July 14, 2026
GTP off-take agreement extended
The agreement with Global Tungsten & Powders (Plansee Group) is extended by six years; volume increases by 40%, and the price improves by approximately 6.3%.
Bullish
July 1, 2026
Sangdong processes first ore
Since June, ore from a stockpile of approximately 139,700 metric tons has been processed through the new processing plant; the calculated gross value is approximately $68 million.
Very bullish
What Does Almonty Industries Do? — How Does the Tungsten Specialist Make Its Money?
Company Description
Almonty Industries Inc. makes its money by selling tungsten concentrate to the cemented carbide, steel, and defense industries. Almonty Industries Inc. (ISIN: CA0203987072, WKN: A414Q8) is headquartered in Dillon, Montana, and is led by Lewis Black. The company’s roots date back to the acquisition of the Portuguese Panasqueira mine in 2005; its stock has been listed on the Nasdaq since August 14, 2025. Tungsten is used in tools, electronics, and semiconductors, as well as in armor and ammunition, and the global market is dominated by China. This is precisely where Almonty’s story lies: tungsten from the West.
The sources of revenue—and exactly how Almonty makes money:
-Panasqueira (Portugal): Tungsten and tin concentrate from an established mine, currently the group’s most reliable source of revenue
-Sangdong (South Korea): The largest growth project, one of the world’s largest and highest-grade tungsten deposits. Ore has been flowing through the plant since June; Phase I is designed for 640,000 metric tons per year, and Phase II has been approved for up to 1.2 million metric tons. Production from Phase I has been pre-sold under a contract with GTP (Plansee)
-Los Santos (Spain): A mine with a take-or-pay contract with Sandvik for tungsten recovery from tailings
-Development projects: Valtreixal (Spain, tin and tungsten), Gentung (Montana), and the molybdenum project near Sangdong are expected to generate additional revenue in the future
Revenue is directly tied to the price of tungsten, which has fluctuated dramatically: The European APT price averaged $3,075 per MTU in the second quarter, up from $453 a year earlier. Tungsten is used in ammunition and armor, and it is precisely this defense boom—which you’re Rheinmetall Aktie is driving demand for raw materials from allied countries. However, Rheinmetall’s stock price is under pressure despite record figures, and the same is currently true for Almonty.
Almonty Industries Mines 2026 - Source: Almonty Industries
Why 2026 is exactly the right time for Almonty: The Pentagon embargo takes effect on January 1, 2027. Western defense contractors such as Lockheed Martin, RTX, and Rheinmetall must completely switch their supply chains from Chinese tungsten to Western sources by then. Almonty, with its Sangdong mine, is the only Western producer that can already deliver on short notice.
Fundamental Analysis: How Much of the Record Earnings Are Real?
Fundamental Analysis (as of October 7, 2026)
Less than the headlines suggest: Of the CAD 181.8 million net profit in the second quarter, CAD 173.1 million consists of non-cash valuation effects; the operating picture is significantly narrower, but still strong.
Valuation: With a market capitalization of approximately $3.8 billion and Q2 revenue extrapolated to the full year of approximately CAD 172 million, the price-to-sales ratio is well above 20. There is no price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio because earnings for the last twelve months are negative. The market price assumes that Sangdong will successfully ramp up production and that the tungsten price will remain high; otherwise, the valuation appears ambitious.
Earnings Quality: Operating results include mining earnings of CAD 26.1 million, adjusted EBITDA of CAD 17.6 million, and a gross margin of 60.7%; in the same quarter of the previous year, EBITDA was still negative at CAD 4.8 million. The 498% increase in revenue is largely due to the price: The APT price averaged about seven times higher than a year ago, and Sangdong made its first contribution. A decline in the tungsten price would significantly weigh on earnings.
Balance Sheet and Capital: Almonty has CAD 1.23 billion in cash, up from CAD 268.4 million at the end of 2025, and has fully repaid the KfW loan after the end of the quarter. This is offset by the $800 million convertible bond, which incurs interest costs and could result in the issuance of new shares upon conversion. The funds are being channeled simultaneously into Phase II of Sangdong, a tungsten oxide plant in South Korea, the Gentung project in Montana, and the expansion of Panasqueira. At the same time, the share buyback program for up to 300 million USD is underway. You’re probably aware from the Bloom Energy Aktie: There, dependence on China for scandium even triggered a class-action lawsuit. Almonty is promoting a counter-narrative to this.
Offtake Agreements and Ramp-Up: The extended GTP contract (six years longer, 40% more volume, approximately 6.3% better price) and the take-or-pay contract with Sandvik secure a portion of sales. The ore deposit in Sangdong, totaling approximately 139,700 metric tons, is sufficient for about 2.6 months of Phase I throughput. It remains to be seen how quickly the plant will reach full capacity.
Governance: On October 5, Almonty announced a change in auditors from Zeifmans to PwC and a legal settlement to correct previous disclosures regarding its management history. Details have not yet been provided. The switch to a major auditing firm may be a sign of maturity, but the settlement raises questions that management should address in its next earnings report.
Conclusion of the Fundamental Analysis:Operations are growing rapidly and are clearly profitable for the first time; the balance sheet is very well capitalized thanks to the proceeds from the convertible bond. The valuation leaves little room for growth, and net income is an unsuitable metric. More important factors are adjusted EBITDA, the Sangdong ramp-up, and the tungsten price.
Almonty Industries Net Income 2026 (as of Oct. 7, 2026) – Source: Aktienfinder / Christian Lill
Almonty Industries Stock Price Targets and Forecast for 2026
How is the Almonty Industries stock price performing (as of October 7, 2026)?
According to 11 analysts, the average price targets for Almonty Industries stock are equivalent to approximately 21.70 EUR (range: approx. 11.60 to 29.00 EUR), which is about 80% above the price of 12.00 EUR in Frankfurt, and 10 out of 11 recommend buying. The forecast for 2026 hinges on two factors: the ramp-up at Sangdong and the tungsten price. Jefferies (Buy, approx. 23.40 EUR) and Sphene Capital (Buy, approx. 23.60 EUR) are optimistic, while Goldman Sachs remains neutral. The next test will be the third-quarter results, expected in early November.
The stock’s price movement reflects the market’s nervous reaction: From a low of 4.62 EUR in November 2025, the stock rose to a high of 20.61 EUR in April but has since fallen by about 42%. In early September, it jumped by nearly 9% to around EUR 16.50 within a single day, but by early October it had fallen to EUR 12.00. On September 14, the stock crossed below the 200-day moving average at 12.83 EUR and has traded below it ever since. You know how a stock price can plummet despite strong numbers from the D-Wave Quantum Aktie: Bookings up 2,000%, 13 out of 13 analysts recommend “Buy,” and yet the stock price was at times more than 60% below its high.
Key price levels:
52-week high: 20.61 EUR (April 17, 2026)52-week low: 4.62 EUR (November 21, 2025)Current price: approx. 11.00 EUR (October 6, 2026, Frankfurt) First resistance level: approx. 13 EUR (200-day moving average, crossed downward at 12.83 EUR on September 14) Second resistance level: approx. 16.50 EUR (rally high in early September)Analyst price targets: Average approx. 21.70 EUR, Jefferies approx. 23.40 EUR, Sphene Capital approx. 23.60 EURCritical downside level: A drop below approx. 10 EUR (September low) would confirm the weakness
Technical Analysis:
Almonty remains in the midst of a sharp price correction. Since early September, the stock has fallen by more than 50% and is once again approaching an interesting price range around 11 EUR. However, there are no signs of sustained buying interest at this time. The next interesting zone is already back at 9 EUR. Almonty is certainly a highly volatile stock whose signals absolutely require confirmation. The picture will only become sustainably bullish if the price rises above 16.50 EUR. In the short term, the stock should be rated as neutral from a technical perspective. However, in combination with the company’s operational performance, I would be more inclined to look for long opportunities.
Important note for German investors: Almonty is primarily traded in CAD (Toronto) and USD (NASDAQ). The EUR price on XETRA (WKN: A414Q8) reflects these quotes adjusted for exchange rate effects—daily fluctuations of 10–15% are not uncommon for this stock. When viewing the chart, I recommend the XETRA chart (A414Q8) on TradingView or Stock3 directly in EUR.
Conclusion: Buy Almonty Industries now or wait?
My assessment: Buy
Should you buy into the tungsten play now? From an operational standpoint, there’s a strong case for it: Revenue is growing by 498%, the Sangdong project is up and running, off-take agreements and over 1.2 billion CAD in cash provide tailwinds, and 10 out of 11 analysts recommend buying. At the same time, net income consists almost entirely of valuation effects, and the stock price is directly tied to the price of tungsten, meaning the stock drops sharply at the first sign of a dip, as the losses since September show. Just how quickly a commodity or sector shock can weigh down even a fundamentally strong stock is demonstrated by the Infineon Aktie: Even there, rising earnings estimates contrast with a weak share price.
Those who believe in the tungsten turnaround in the West and can tolerate high volatility will find a price of 11 EUR—about 44% below the high—and an analyst target of 21.70 EUR. Those who want to play it safe should wait for the quarterly results in early November and see how the Sangdong ramp-up progresses, while monitoring whether the stock can break back above the 200-day moving average.
✅ Opportunities
⚠️ Risks
- 10 out of 11 analysts recommend buying; average price target: $24.33 (approximately +79%)
- Q2 revenue +498%, gross margin 60.7%, adjusted EBITDA positive at CAD 17.6 million
- Cash reserves of CAD 1.23 billion; KfW loan fully repaid
- Offtake agreements with GTP (+40% volume) and Sandvik secure a portion of sales
- Share buyback of up to $300 million supports the stock price
- Tungsten is in strategic demand outside of China, including for defense and semiconductors
- Q2 net income almost entirely due to valuation effects (CAD 173.1 million out of CAD 181.8 million)
- Share price about 44% below its high; 200-day moving average crossed downward on September 14
- Strong dependence on the tungsten price (average of $3,075 per MTU in Q2, compared to $453 in the prior year)
- Ramp-up of the Sangdong mine not yet complete
- Convertible bond of over $800 million incurs interest costs and may lead to dilution
- Change in auditors and agreement on management history: Details still pending; Goldman Sachs maintains a Neutral rating
FAQ: Frequently Asked Questions About Almonty Industries Stock
Is Almonty Industries stock a buy in 2026?
10 out of 11 analysts recommend buying; the average price target is approximately 21.70 EUR (24.33 USD), which is about 80% above the current price of approximately 12.00 EUR. Goldman Sachs maintains a Neutral rating. Weighing against this are a price roughly 42% below the 52-week high, a Q2 net profit consisting almost entirely of non-cash valuation gains, and the company’s dependence on the tungsten price.
Why has the Almonty Industries stock fallen?
No single cause can be pinpointed. The fact is: The stock has been declining since its high of 20.61 EUR in April and has lost more than a quarter of its value since early September, falling to approximately 12.00 EUR. Previously, it had more than quadrupled from a low of 4.62 EUR to 20.61 EUR; the Q2 net profit of 181.8 million CAD included 173.1 million CAD in valuation effects, and on October 5, the announcement regarding the change in auditors and the agreement on the management’s history followed.
What is the price target for Almonty Industries stock?
The average price target is equivalent to approximately 21.70 EUR (24.33 USD; 11 analysts, range approx. 11.60 to 29.00 EUR). Jefferies cites approximately 23.40 EUR, and Sphene Capital cites approximately 23.60 EUR. Compared to the current price of approximately 12.00 EUR, the average represents upside potential of around 80%.
What is the forecast for Almonty Industries stock in 2026?
The outlook depends primarily on the ramp-up of the Sangdong mine (Phase I at 640,000 metric tons of ore per year) and on the tungsten price, which averaged $3,075 per metric ton in the second quarter. Analysts are clearly positive, with 10 out of 11 buy recommendations. A reliable earnings forecast remains difficult because the tungsten price fluctuates sharply and the Q2 results include valuation effects.
When will Almonty release its next earnings report?
Third-quarter results are expected to be released in early November 2026. Almonty last reported on August 11: revenue of CAD 43.0 million (+498%), adjusted EBITDA of CAD 17.6 million.
How much is Almonty’s dividend?
Almonty is not currently paying a dividend; the last dividend was paid in 2014 (CAD 0.04). Instead, a share buyback program has been in effect since August 24, 2026, covering up to 14.4 million shares, or approximately 270 million EUR (300 million USD), spread over 36 months.
How does Almonty make money?
Almonty generates revenue by selling tungsten concentrate from its mines in Panasqueira (Portugal), Los Santos (Spain), and Sangdong (South Korea, which has been ramping up since June). Its customers include the cemented carbide, steel, and defense industries. In the second quarter of 2026, the group generated CAD 43.0 million in revenue.
Where are Almonty Industries shares traded?
Following the stock exchange consolidation, the stock is now traded only on the Nasdaq (ticker ALM, ISIN CA0203987072) and in Frankfurt (ALI1, WKN A414Q8); in Frankfurt, it is quoted in euros. The delisting from the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) was completed on September 1, 2026.
I find $AII (+2.31%) it’s extremely exciting, even if the stock price performance doesn’t yet reflect the company’s operational performance—maybe with the next earnings report? What do you think?
