Soprano · 2024-11-15T15:57:07.974065Z

Lagen meine Vorhersagen falsch? - Q3 Report $11B Als einziger Analyst, der hier auf der Plattform über 11 Bit berichtet, freue ich mich euch die Quartalszahlen des Unternehmens vorstellen zu können. Wie bereits von mir angenommen, berichtet 11 Bit einen Rekordumsatz und Rekordgewinn für die ersten 9 Monate des Jahres 2024. Hier habe man mit 106.6 mio. PLN sogar mehr Umsatz erzielt als im besten Jahr der Firmengeschichte. Aus der Vertriebspartnerschaft mit Microsoft $MSFT wurden dabei rund die Hälfte der Umsätze erzielt. Im Q3 wurden davon insgesamt etwa 76 mio. PLN was ungefähr der siebenfache Wert des Vorjahresquartals darstellt. 11B arbeitete dabei hochprofitabel und erzielte einen Nettogewinn von 47.5 mio. PLN was einer Nettogewinnmarge von 63% entspricht. Wie bereits in vorherigen Analysen erwähnt, liegt dies an einem Einmaleffekt - und zwar dem Release ihres Blockbusters Frostpunk 2 der rund 75% zum Gesamtumsatz beigetragen hat. Dieses Spiel verkaufte sich im September rund 441.000 mal und blieb damit unter den Erwartungen der Markteilnehmer. Die Spiele wurden dabei hauptsächlich nach China, USA und Deutschland verkauft. Mittlerweile befinden wir uns nach 2 Monaten bei 511.000 verkauften Einheiten des Spiels. Dies könnte in etwa gleichauf sein mit dem originalen Frostpunk, welches im Frühjahr 2018 erschienen ist und innerhalb eines Jahres rund 1,4 mio. Einheiten verkaufen konnte. Demnach müsste Frostpunk jetzt jeden Monat rund 90.000 Einheiten verkaufen um dieses Ziel ebenfalls zu erreichen. Spannend wird sein, wie sich das Weihnachtsgeschäft und der Konsolenrelease auf die Verkäufe auswirken wird. Zudem ist bemerkenswert, dass rund die Hälfte der Kunden sich zum Kauf der etwa doppelt so teuren Deluxe Edition des Spiels hinreißen ließen, was ein Hinweis auf ein starkes Vertrauen und Bindung der Kundschaft liefert. Dies ist vor allem für die zukünftigen Umsätze im Franchise und für den Release der neuen IP "The Alters" im Frühjahr 2025 relevant Alles in allem bin ich sehr überrascht über die ausbleibende positive Reaktion des Markets. Das Unternehmen hat derzeit wie bereits erwähnt das beste Quartal der Unternehmensgeschichte abgeschlossen und gleichzeitig den tiefsten Aktienkurs in der Unternehmensgeschichte. Irgendwas passt hier nicht zusammen. Daher bekräftige ich mein Kursziel von 93€

@Soprano

2Mon·

Were my predictions wrong? - Q3 Report $11B (+0%)

As the only analyst reporting on 11 Bit here on the platform, I am pleased to be able to present the company's quarterly figures to you.

As I had already assumed, 11 Bit reported record sales and record profits for the first 9 months of 2024. At PLN 106.6 million, sales were even higher than in the best year in the company's history.

The sales partnership with Microsoft $MSFT (+3.69%) generated around half of the revenue.

In Q3, a total of around PLN 76 million was generated, which is around seven times the figure for the same quarter of the previous year. 11B was highly profitable and achieved a net profit of PLN 47.5 million, which corresponds to a net profit margin of 63%.

As already mentioned in previous analyses, this is due to a one-off effect - namely the release of its blockbuster Frostpunk 2, which contributed around 75% to total sales. This game sold around 441,000 copies in September, falling short of market participants' expectations. The games were mainly sold to China, the USA and Germany.

After 2 months, we are now at 511,000 units of the game sold. This could be roughly on a par with the original Frostpunk, which was released in spring 2018 and sold around 1.4 million units within a year. This means that Frostpunk would now have to sell around 90,000 units every month to reach this target as well. It will be exciting to see how Christmas sales and the console release will affect sales.

It is also worth noting that around half of customers were persuaded to buy the Deluxe Edition of the game, which is around twice as expensive, which is an indication of strong customer confidence and loyalty. This is particularly relevant for future sales in the franchise and for the release of the new IP "The Alters" in spring 2025

All in all, I am very surprised by the lack of a positive reaction from the market. As already mentioned, the company has just closed the best quarter in its history and at the same time the lowest share price in the company's history. Something does not add up here. I am therefore reiterating my price target of €93

7 Comments

ThemenmitKopf@topicswithhead

2Mon

Ytd nevertheless in the red and on a monthly basis too. Why is that?

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Soprano@Soprano

2Mon

@topicswithhead It was hoped that Frostpunk 2 would significantly exceed the sales figures of the extremely successful first part. At the moment, it looks more like the sales figures will be slightly undercut. Hence the disappointment.

On the other hand, we are currently close to the 5-year low - although we are making more turnover and profit than 5 years ago and growth has also accelerated significantly. For the first time, 11 Bit has been able to publish several titles as a publisher within one year and was also able to develop two of its own titles in parallel for the first time.

This improvement in operational growth is completely forgotten, alongside the disappointment of an FP2 that was only "good" instead of exceeding all expectations. However, the entire media industry is suffering from negative market sentiment. Most film and gaming studios are now lower on a 5-year view, with many of them such as Disney, Embracer Group, Ubisoft etc. also having operational problems, which cannot be said for 11 Bit - which is debt-free and financially solid.

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ThemenmitKopf@topicswithhead

2Mon

@Soprano sounds okay, but the share is at the 2019 level. The stock market doesn't seem to support your buy theory here and in the media sector, only the shares that have sustainable problems are doing badly. Disney, Ubisoft, CNBC and others. Netflix, YouTube, CD Projekt, EA have good times behind them without really having it in mind.

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Soprano@Soprano

2Mon

@topicswithhead So the media sector as a whole looks bleak in terms of share performance, even for those that are doing quite well operationally. CD Projekt still -60% below ATH and still negative even over 6 years. So it's as if they haven't made any money since 2018. Paradox Interactive is also at about the same price as 5 years ago, except that sales have almost tripled. The FCF yield for next year is now over 6% and the PEG is 0.5.
PlayWay has been paying a dividend of over 7% for years and has a profit margin of 40%, and yet the share price has not budged.

Netflix is really the exception and the only entertainment stock that is really rewarded by the share price.

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ThemenmitKopf@topicswithhead

2Mon

@Soprano I'm just seeing that they're all not doing so well, but CD is still up for the year. Yes, youtube and Netflix seem to have gained in value now

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Le@Vuu

1Mon

Annoying development. What now?

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Soprano@Soprano

1Mon

@Vuu Another hefty penalty: 11 Bit is considering scrapping 1 project worth PLN 50 million. That is about 8% of the market capitalization. The share then drops -35% and destroys a market cap of PLN 250 million.

But for me this is irrelevant. I believe that the next quarterly figures will exceed expectations and will stick with the stock until the summer, regardless of what the share price does until then. I may buy again in December and increase the position by +33%. As I said, you have to wait for the figures and can deduce relatively little from the "news" until then.

In the summer I will then re-evaluate on the basis of the Q2 figures whether I should close the position or whether I was right about the undervaluation and let the share compounden in the long term.

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