Maximilian · 2024-08-24T09:09:34.250588Z

Kleine langfristige Beimischung ins Depot geholt. Buy&Hold 🚀 Größer soll die Position allerdings nicht werden.Ist für mich eher eine Spekulation in die Zukunft.

@Max095

4Mon·

Small long-term addition to the portfolio. Buy&Hold 🚀 However, I don't want the position to get any bigger - it's more of a speculation for the future.

23.08

Amundi ETF Leveraged MSCI USA Dly ETF EURC/D

Bought x126.83 at €19.72

€2,500.75

22 Comments

PowerWordChill@PowerWordChill

4Mon

I hope you know what path dependency is.
There are reasons why you don't want to have leverage >1.5 in the long term. 😘

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Maximilian@Max095

4Mon

@PowerWordChill That's why I say a small speculative admixture in my portfolio. Of course, I don't want such an ETF as a core.

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PowerWordChill@PowerWordChill

4Mon

@Max095 I don't think I got my point across.
The expected value at 2x leverage is slightly negative.
You could just as easily go to the roulette table for 1x the money.
It's probably even more fun and you might even get a free drink. 😅

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Maximilian@Max095

4Mon

@PowerWordChill Okay, so where does the annual return of over 30% per year come from, and that for 20 years?

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PowerWordChill@PowerWordChill

4Mon

@Max095 Survivorship bias!
You look at the USA and see 2x would have worked well.

And now look at the same thing twice with other countries. In most cases, it didn't go so well.

You do realize that you can lose money with such products due to volatility even though the market is rising, right?

There are quite good studies on the subject:

https://www.slcg.com/files/research-papers/Leveraged%20ETFs,%20Holding%20Periods%20and%20Investment%20Shortfalls.pdf

Just as an example, try to find one that comes to the conclusion that it is a good idea to keep such a product for longer than a few months.

Just because there have been a few markets where it has worked in the past does not mean that it is likely to work in the future.

I'm not trying to talk you out of it, you can do what you want with your money, I just wanted to point out that there is a consensus that it's not a good idea.

There is actually an optimal leverage that is somewhere between 1.25 and 1.5 but 2 or more is too much. 😘

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Piet24@Piet24

4Mon

@PowerWordChill Les mal leveraged for the long run

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Maximilian@Max095

4Mon

@PowerWordChill MSCI World etc. are all over 80% USA. Then, according to your statement, one should not invest in these ETFs either.

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PowerWordChill@PowerWordChill

4Mon

@Max095
1. i think we're talking past each other.

2. i'm afraid you don't know how the product works.

Can you answer the following question:

If the MSCI USA Index makes +10% in one year, how much % does the Amundi ETF 2x Leveraged MSCI USA Daily UCITS ETF make ?

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mein_depot@seppl6431

4Mon

@PowerWordChill Anything can happen? Depending on the performance during the year, even a total loss?

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PowerWordChill@PowerWordChill

4Mon

@seppl6431 Correct, you can't predict it.
The path dependency can work for or against you; it has worked well over the last 15 years. But if you had held the ETF between 1990 and 2008, it would have been disastrous. The dotcom bubble + financial crisis would have totally destroyed the performance.

Total loss would only occur if the underlying index also went to 0. 😅

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Maximilian@Max095

4Mon

@PowerWordChill well, a normal ETF would also have had a "disastrous" result in this period ;)That's why you don't just hold securities for 18 years, but longer.

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View all 3 further answers

tims92@tims92

4Mon

I was also thinking about investing 2.5k, but I already have 6 ETFs that I'm saving and I'll put the 2.5k back into Bitcoin at the next DIP 😅

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Maximilian@Max095

4Mon

@tims92 also a good decision 🔥

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Cyanide B.@CyanideBee2

4Mon

@tims92 that’s a better decision considering the risk/reward ratio.

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Maximilian@Max095

4Mon

@CyanideBee2 i hope so. I think the global Economy will continue to grow as it always has :)

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Ruben Schoff@Sand

4Mon

I also plan to get in, but only in the event of a setback, but that's just my way of acting - I'm also positive about the future! Good luck!

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Maximilian@Max095

1Mon

@Sand Why not run it as a savings plan? That would also be a good option. In times of crisis, you can increase the savings plan.

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Vanessa@Nessava

4Mon

I also have my eye on this one. My idea would be to use a trailing stop loss to get out quickly in the event of major losses. Let's see when it makes sense to get in.

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Maximilian@Max095

3Mon

@Nessava Why not buy & hold? Should be worthwhile if you look at the performance of the last few years.

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