$SLV (+2.22%) , $SIL (+1.44%) , and $SILJ
The 'easy money' from the March 2024, and then the 2nd condolidation from June-24 to Jan-25 = Base/Accumulation is long gone - see the chart below.
The real signal for us was a textbook Phase 1 entry at the $18-$22 range. Now, we're in a consolidation aftermath of a rise/markup - with classic institutional footprint:
The Problem: The top-side regime indicator has broken down. Price action is weakening.
The Signal: The Volume Trend (VTM) is still holding strong. This divergence means the institutional selling is not confirmed yet.
The Anchor: Heavy volume shelf and dual AVWAP confluence (YTD AVWA{ and C1) near $32 is our key support. This is where "smart money" built the last leg.
What Now? Probabilities, Not Certainties. 2 Options:
1. If a Sell Signal: Wait for a confirmed Volume Trend Breakdown. That tells us the cycle has truly turned. but we think it is more the 2nd option
2. If the Next Leg up: Look for the stock to settle, build a new, tight Base Formation above the $32-$35 anchor, and then breakout on momentum / regime. This is the time arbitrage play.
Tip: don't confuse popular opinion with institutional opportunity. $SLV and $GLD feel overhyped - our focus remains on high-conviction setups in PGM and REE metals - but we will dip our toes into Junior Silver miners if we get the signal - momentum reversal above $32-$35 zone.
