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Deleted User
11Mon
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Soprano@Soprano
11Mon
@Madhatter5566 Is this simply a gross aversion to stock picking or is there a specific statement in it?

So do you see a concrete difference for stock picking in a bull market vs. a bear market?
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Deleted User
11Mon
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Soprano@Soprano
11Mon
@Madhatter5566 Well, but what is an index other than an arbitrary composition of shares? Why should the composition determined by Dow & Jones be better than that of uhh Dirk Müller?
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11Mon
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Soprano@Soprano
11Mon
@Madhatter5566 But what do you mean by that? All non-inflationary assets have a statistically positive expected return. Equities, gold, real estate, bonds ... this is not exclusive to the MSCI World.
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11Mon
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Soprano@Soprano
11Mon
@Madhatter5566 You can put it even more drastically. If I had bought the Dow Jones 150 years ago ... I don't even think there are any more shares in it today, apart from General Electric. But not necessarily because they all went bankrupt.

Most companies were simply taken over or merged at some point over the decades. Instead of US Rubber, you would have Michelin . Instead of US Tabacco, you would have British American Tabacco. Instead of Cotton Oil, you would have had Unilever.

So although there is nothing left of the shares from the original DJI, you would have automatically received new shares. But actually, no company has simply disappeared without a trace and dematerialized.

That would be an exciting topic for a doctoral thesis or for a quantum computer to work out whether it would have been better to buy the "current DJI" over 100 years or to hold the companies for decades and see which successor shares you get after the takeover.
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11Mon
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Soprano@Soprano
11Mon
@Madhatter5566 But none of them went bankrupt. You are overestimating how many listed companies supposedly go bust. Many companies do disappear from the stock exchange every year, but NOT because they are insolvent and unable to pay and are then wound up, that is an absolute rarity and exception.
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Deleted User
11Mon
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