Eli Lilly Q225 Earnings Highlights

Revenue: $15.56B (Est. $14.67B) ✅; UP +38% YoY
Adjusted EPS: $6.31 (Est. $5.59) ✅; UP +61% YoY

Product Revenue:

Zepbound: $3.38B (Est. $3.07B) ✅; UP +172% YoY
Mounjaro: $5.20B; UP +68% YoY
Verzenio: $1.49B; UP +12% YoY

FY25 Guidance (Updated):

Revenue: $60.0B–$62.0B (Est. $60.09B) ✅
Adj. EPS: $21.75–$23.00 (Est. $21.98) ✅
GAAP EPS: $20.85–$22.10
Performance Margin (Non-GAAP): 43.0%–44.5%
Tax Rate (Reported): 19% | (Non-GAAP): ~17%

CEO Commentary:

🟡 “Lilly delivered another quarter of strong performance, achieving 38% YoY revenue growth driven by robust sales of Zepbound and Mounjaro.”

🟡 “Our pipeline continued to advance, with positive data in oncology and cardiometabolic health.”

🟡 “We expanded manufacturing capacity and continued to invest in R&D to support long-term growth.”

Strategic & Pipeline Highlights:

Mounjaro showed cardiovascular protection in landmark CVOT trial
Orforglipron (oral GLP-1) showed weight loss up to 27.3 lbs in pivotal trials
Jaypirca beat Imbruvica in CLL/SLL Phase 3 H2H trial
Zepbound showed superior weight loss over Wegovy in SURMOUNT-5
Kisunla (Alzheimer’s) approved in Australia & received CHMP positive opinion
Acquisitions: SiteOne Therapeutics, Verve Therapeutics
Expanded Purdue collaboration with up to $250M investment

$LLY (-2.51%)
$NOVO B (+4.84%)
$NVO (+4.53%)

Das pillenbasierte Abnehmmittel von $LLY (-2.51%) zeigt deutlich schlechtere Ergebnisse als das pillenbasierte Abnehmmittel von $NOVO B (+4.84%) (beide in Studien) – siehe Vergleich unten:

Novo führt als erste Abnehmpille:

Eli Lilly's Results Fell Slightly Below Expectations

While orforglipron helped patients lose around 12% of their body weight, analysts were expecting closer to 15%. That means:

The pill is promising, but not clearly superior to Novo’s Wegovy, which offers comparable or better results.

This could ease investor concerns that Eli Lilly would quickly dominate or disrupt the market.

2. Side Effects & Discontinuation Rates Raised Concerns

The discontinuation rate on the highest dose of orforglipron was 10.3%, and overall dropout was close to 25%, which is higher than for injectable GLP-1s like Wegovy (around 7%).

This makes Novo’s products look more tolerable and clinically more stable in comparison.

3. Time Advantage for Novo Nordisk

Eli Lilly doesn’t plan to launch the pill until 2026, so there is no immediate competitive threat to Wegovy.

Novo Nordisk already has market dominance with Wegovy and Rybelsus (an oral GLP-1 for diabetes), giving it a strong head start.

4. Market Expansion Narrative

Investors often interpret positive data from a rival as a sign that the entire GLP-1 category is strong and expanding.

If Lilly’s pill works and gets approved, it validates the GLP-1 space further.

This strengthens the long-term outlook for Novo Nordisk as a major player in that market.

5. Speculation About Novo’s Own Oral GLP-1 Development

Investors may believe Novo has room to improve or accelerate its own oral GLP-1 pipeline.

The race for oral treatments is far from over, and Novo is still a top contender with deep experience in the GLP-1 space.

Summary

Novo Nordisk stock is likely up because:

Eli Lilly’s results were strong but not better than expected.

There were tolerability concerns with Lilly’s pill.

Novo still has the lead in market and product availability.

The data boosts confidence in the entire GLP-1 market.

Eli Lilly Q2'25 Earnings Highlights

Breaking: Das nächste Opfer 😁