A few thoughts and arguments, since you are asking for contra arguments:
1. we have a target inflation of 2% in all states. Why: Price stability, avoid deflation (potential downward spiral because Downward spiral because everyone keeps their money in the hope of lower prices), empirical values (balance between economic growth, price stability, employment)
2. a cryptocurrency in which everyone invests because it will hopefully, but not certainly, be worth more in the future will never be able to hold its value and is only a bubble because people act emotionally.
3. why shouldn't Solana, where over 1 million transactions are processed every day, replace BTC? The same game with ETH & consorts. What speaks against it, hope?
4. how do I know that it will still be worth mining BTC in 8 years? You are dependent on graphics cards, which basically only Nvidia produces. Nvidia already has an average margin of 70% on their products. Who's to say they won't get even more expensive?
5. the exchanges also limit cryptocurrencies because they are not public exchanges like the Frankfurt Stock Exchange or the New York Stock Exchange, but private, mostly dubious companies that are completely non-transparent.
6 What happens if the exchanges are damaged to the extent that trading is no longer possible? Then I can still transfer something privately to PP, but that's it. If the technology is damaged, I also lose access. If I then need an extremely long password for access, it doesn't get any easier in a crisis scenario such as war, mass exodus etc.. Gold and cash are much more attractive.
7. although Michael Saylor is considered the crypto pope, he could currently sell the 200,000 BTC for a profit of 6 billion dollars. What is stopping him? That Bitcoin will rise to 1 million and the profit will be even higher? No, just the temporary price stability or price growth, until the first ones want to take the tasty profit and then the house of cards topples, as in the previous bull runs, where even the gold standard BTC lost up to 80% of its value and took 2.5 years to get back to the same value. Who tells me that it won't take even longer in the future to reach a new AZH and what do I do if I buy at the peak? Should I hold it for an uncertain time with hope? If there is one thing that destroys investments, it is hope. Either facts that something is undervalued and therefore buy it, but not because of a gut feeling or even hope. This kind of volatility and uncertainty scares off any investor who wants to build wealth - otherwise I can play the lottery every Wednesday and Saturday for 2.5 years and also play Eurojackpot every Tuesday and Friday, sign up for the TV lottery and Aktion Mensch and hopefully I'll be a rich man by then. Hope is loss when it comes to money.
In short, just because there has been a bull run in Halving three times in the past is no guarantee for the future, let alone for value stability. Such a volatile asset can quickly backfire, so caution is not the wisest course of action.
1. we have a target inflation of 2% in all states. Why: Price stability, avoid deflation (potential downward spiral because Downward spiral because everyone keeps their money in the hope of lower prices), empirical values (balance between economic growth, price stability, employment)
2. a cryptocurrency in which everyone invests because it will hopefully, but not certainly, be worth more in the future will never be able to hold its value and is only a bubble because people act emotionally.
3. why shouldn't Solana, where over 1 million transactions are processed every day, replace BTC? The same game with ETH & consorts. What speaks against it, hope?
4. how do I know that it will still be worth mining BTC in 8 years? You are dependent on graphics cards, which basically only Nvidia produces. Nvidia already has an average margin of 70% on their products. Who's to say they won't get even more expensive?
5. the exchanges also limit cryptocurrencies because they are not public exchanges like the Frankfurt Stock Exchange or the New York Stock Exchange, but private, mostly dubious companies that are completely non-transparent.
6 What happens if the exchanges are damaged to the extent that trading is no longer possible? Then I can still transfer something privately to PP, but that's it. If the technology is damaged, I also lose access. If I then need an extremely long password for access, it doesn't get any easier in a crisis scenario such as war, mass exodus etc.. Gold and cash are much more attractive.
7. although Michael Saylor is considered the crypto pope, he could currently sell the 200,000 BTC for a profit of 6 billion dollars. What is stopping him? That Bitcoin will rise to 1 million and the profit will be even higher? No, just the temporary price stability or price growth, until the first ones want to take the tasty profit and then the house of cards topples, as in the previous bull runs, where even the gold standard BTC lost up to 80% of its value and took 2.5 years to get back to the same value. Who tells me that it won't take even longer in the future to reach a new AZH and what do I do if I buy at the peak? Should I hold it for an uncertain time with hope? If there is one thing that destroys investments, it is hope. Either facts that something is undervalued and therefore buy it, but not because of a gut feeling or even hope. This kind of volatility and uncertainty scares off any investor who wants to build wealth - otherwise I can play the lottery every Wednesday and Saturday for 2.5 years and also play Eurojackpot every Tuesday and Friday, sign up for the TV lottery and Aktion Mensch and hopefully I'll be a rich man by then. Hope is loss when it comes to money.
In short, just because there has been a bull run in Halving three times in the past is no guarantee for the future, let alone for value stability. Such a volatile asset can quickly backfire, so caution is not the wisest course of action.
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@irritiertMax Thank you very much for these comments. I will come back to you when I am through with my exams. I am very glad that you have made such arguments. But of course I want to deal with them in a good and factual way. That's why it will take a while. I'll be in touch.
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@Pauljj Hi, how are things looking? Will I still get an answer?
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