1Wk·

Arbitrage idea: Coinbase vs. Robinhood + Polymarket

The idea is to buy Coinbase (shares or calls) and then short Robinhood. In other words, a bet that Coinbase will perform better relative to Robinhood. The whole thing is then hedged with the Polymarkettrade. If everything is bought at the right price, an arbitrage opportunity should arise.


Polymarkettrade (hedge): https://polymarket.com/event/will-coin-surpass-100b-market-capitalization-by-q4-2025?tid=1753213019065

Robinhood will ever overtake Coinbase in market capitalization by the end of 2025.


Yes is currently tradable for around 20 cents


For this to happen $HOOD (+3.25%) rise sharply or $COIN (+1.96%) which is unlikely as both have the same target group, so either both rise or both fall.


The idea can also be complete garbage, work in progress !

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"as both have the same target group, so both rise or both fall"

The idea can't just be complete garbage, it is.
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@Ph1l1pp Then put the charts on top of each other Meister, I see a big correlation, Coinbase is just always a bit behind
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