6D·

Is Tesla overvalued?

Of course $TSLA (-1%) massively overvalued! Does that make it a clear short position? Absolutely not! $TSLA (-1%) is not a normal commercial enterprise. $TSLA (-1%) is a religion, just like $AAPL (-0.72%) .

Every piece of bad news is bought, every hot air statement by the CEO, no matter how unrealistic, is bought. $TSLA (-1%) is for me one of the easiest stocks to manipulate with such a market volume.

No matter what is said, the disciples buy, buy and buy. So no, $TSLA (-1%) is like $PLTR (-1.22%) a stock that is extremely risky to trade against.

Let's take robotaxis as an example. The share price jumps because, after many promises, 10 cars have been put on the road as assisted driving with a passenger and an accompanying vehicle. But only in good weather and in bright light.

The profits to be generated from this are extrapolated as if there were no competition and it will be rolled out across the board from 2027. Just for comparison, it took Waymo 7 years to get permission to drive the vehicles without an attendant. Even if there is a very risk-averse government in the USA right now, but I believe that this will still be decided by the states and not by decree. That's why it started in Texas. It will take at least 10 years to roll it out across the whole of the USA. In Europe, I don't think it will be before 2050.

There is plenty of competition, just like with humanoid robots. The cars will only be bought by the religious community.

I think it will stay that way.

And even though I'm assuming a highly exaggerated valuation, I'm not going to bet against this religion.

I think the fair value is between 100-150 rather than 400-500, but I don't believe it will get that far.

22 Comments

Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

No one can say exactly how long the house of cards will last.

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Joost K.@Joostkroes

@Tenbagger2024 The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent

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stock_whiz_2254@stock_whiz_2254

If you have to ask the question you know the answer ... the question is to find someone who is stupid enough to buy the shares for more as long as this goes on well only at some point some burn their fingers!

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Luca@Lvca

Yes, Tesla is currently overvalued, but investors are betting on the future. There are enough companies that are also overvalued according to the P/E ratio. However, the share is not being driven up by some "disciples" because they don't have the purchasing power for it.

If you ignore all the AI hype, hardly anyone is looking at Tesla's energy business. Yet it is growing enormously (65% CAGR) and delivering good margins.

December 22: 3.9 bn $
December 23: 6.1 billion $
December 24: 10.1 bn $
Current: 11.2 bn $

I'm pretty sure that this will grow even more in the future, especially when you consider that AI is the future, which requires a lot of electricity.

100-150 is a bit exaggerated in my opinion if you look at Tesla's broad positioning. Especially now that Tesla is building its own LFP cells (batteries) in America and is increasingly separating itself from China to reduce costs and avoid geopolitical risks.

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Chris@Multibagger

@Lvca But they need the rare earths from China for this.

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Chris@Multibagger

@Lvca and what makes you think that the big investment companies are not disciples? They are in it with large sums of money and will never write anything negative and adjust their price targets downwards in line with reality. Do you have access to the 13F reports? If not, I will be happy to find out how much the big investment companies are invested in $TSLA. For almost all of them, $Tesla is among the top 5. The fact that Cathie Wood's ARK Invest has a crazy high target price for $TSLA is a very good contra-indicator. We will see where $TSLA is in 3, 5 and 10 years. Probably higher for the reasons mentioned, but there are still more interesting stocks for me.
But the main reason for my post was actually to raise awareness that it is better not to trade against the market in some stocks.

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Aktienfox@Aktienfox

I see it exactly as you do with Palantir and Tesla, and would go in with a maximum of 3x leverage (short), but I'd rather go for growth companies!

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Lupo201@Lupo201

@Aktienfox Palantir will deliver and Tesla will disappoint😅 that's my guess

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Kate🦋@Iwamoto

I like your long-term view. And you're probably right. I would just like to point out that evolution, growth and change do not take place in a linear fashion, but mostly exponentially.

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Chris@Multibagger

@Iwamoto You are quite right, dear @Iwamoto. I just wanted to point out that it makes no sense to trade against the market for certain stocks, no matter how convinced you are of your assessment.

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nassimcanim@nassimcanim

good text, except that i think the robotaxis will appear and be approved sooner than you think. Lots of advantages. As long as there's no scandal with surveillance or accidents, I think it's going to be a steep climb

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Chris@Multibagger

@nassimcanim That could also be the case, we'll see. The real problems will only come when they really are driving on their own. A lot is concealed in this way.

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CRB_Consulting@CRB_Consulting

Where is there competition for tesla robotaxis? The only ones would be waymo but a waymo vehicle costs about $150-$200,000 to produce

Waymo rides cost twice as much as uber rides with real cab drivers

Tesla will simply eat waymo's market share due to the price advantage and scaling possibilities

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Chris@Multibagger

@CRB_Consulting but only if the technology works promptly. I don't expect that to happen. Let's wait and see when they can make as many journeys without problems as Waymo can without guided driving, in any weather and around the clock. And what is approved in the USA does not necessarily have to be approved in other countries.

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Joost K.@Joostkroes

@CRB_Consulting The solution that tesla has chosen (computer vision) over waymo's lidar means that the per-unit cost is lower.

But for now computer vision is apparently limiting (good weather, daylight) and tesla is in the 'let's see how well this goes'-phase. I don't think they'll spend 7 years in test like waymo, but this will take longer than 1-2 years imho.

1-2 years where other competitors can grab marketshare.

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Gomerdoc@Gomerdoc

And: Waymo belongs to $GOOGL. It's a question of who eats whom.

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PikaPika0105@PikaPika0105

Thank you for saying it once. There still seem to be enough disciples.... Fair value is around 100-200 billion.

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Chris@Multibagger

@PikaPika0105 That won't change either.

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PikaPika0105@PikaPika0105

@Multibagger unless they fall so far behind technologically that the lie finally becomes clear to everyone.

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Charmin@Charmin

I think 100-150 is still grossly overvalued, that would be a P/E ratio of 70 or so.

Competitors are below 10.

Yes, I know, Tesla is not an automotive company ...

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Chris@Multibagger

@Charmin No, a religion! I already wrote that.

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Gomerdoc@Gomerdoc

Accurately and precisely described!

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