@1Chrischi1 ASML looks the most interesting to me purely from a valuation perspective. I expected the lower end of the guidance for 2030 and conservative assumptions. Currently very fairly valued with decent upside. But of course, it can go even lower from the current level. Microsoft would be the "safer" option, e.g. more diversified revenue streams, no cyclicality, etc.

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Brian@Aktienhauptmeister

1Yr

$INTU & $SPGI opened the first positions
$NVDA topped up
$AMZN topped up
$MSFT waits...
$MSCI waits...
$AMD still undecided

And with you ?

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Yr

@Aktienhauptmeister Top companies! I buy the big tech names via ETF (LS FAANG+ ETP), as they have all corrected properly. I bought a small tranche of Hims & Hers and AMD. I also have a starter position in Trade Desk, which is falling ungodly. I am therefore remaining cautious here. I don't want to have too many positions (max. 10), so I want to remain selective.

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Brian@Aktienhauptmeister

1Yr

@thewolfofallstreetz I am also keeping a very close eye on $ISRG at the moment. It has also been on my watchlist for a long time, an absolute long-term runner. What do you think about $ISRG?

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Yr

@Aktienhauptmeister I also have them on my watchlist, basically super interesting. However, they haven't fallen enough for me yet - there are even more attractive entries with other companies at the moment.

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Brian@Aktienhauptmeister

1Yr

@thewolfofallstreetz I agree 💪 should still fall a good 15-20%, but is flying under the radar at the moment because the focus is more on falling tech stocks. Just wanted to mention it in passing 😬 and your contributions are great by the way ✌️

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Yr

@Aktienhauptmeister Absolutely, I would look very closely at 20% or more. In the last 5 years they have had a 50% drawdown. It's a top company, but in the end you can't pay too much, otherwise you won't get a good return despite being a top company.

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JCM@TheStoic

1Yr

How do you calculate your DCF models? Based on my DCF calculations, most of the stocks in the list are not fairly valued and are far from being undervalued.

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Patrick ₿ateman@fastlane

1Yr

@TheStoic Stands and falls with the selected perpetual growth rate

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Yr

@fastlane Of course, in the end it is a model and will never be right. Nevertheless, it's a good exercise to get a feel for the valuation level and a fair price.

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Yr

@TheStoic With MSCI, for example, I made the following assumptions for the next 10 years: 8% sales growth, 2.5% buybacks, 50% FCF margin, 2% terminal growth, 8% discount rate. This results in around 11% FCF per share growth per year, a fair value of USD 570 and 4% upside to the current share price. So a further setback would probably be a top opportunity. The long-standing CEO also made insider purchases at higher prices in December and February, which is a bonus point.

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JCM@TheStoic

1Yr

@thewolfofallstreetz Thank you for your answer

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Yr

@TheStoic What assumptions did you use?

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JCM@TheStoic

1Yr

@thewolfofallstreetz I use the DCF model from FocusGuru and adjust the values individually according to the companies

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Patschke6686@Patschke6686

1Yr

I am currently considering buying Intuit. FICO is currently also on my list to add here as well

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Yr

@Patschke6686 I look at them too, but they just don't come down.

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Jonathan@ProTox

1Yr

I have half of them in the depot 😅🚀

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Deleted User

1Yr

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Jonathan@ProTox

1Yr

@Memo0606 I haven't really looked at it yet, so I can't form an opinion yet

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GeldGenie@GeldGenie

1Yr

"Your" DCF models? I'm curious about that.

Please elaborate 😊

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Yr

@GeldGenie With MSCI, for example, I made the following assumptions for the next 10 years: 8% sales growth, 2.5% buybacks, 50% FCF margin, 2% terminal growth, 8% discount rate. This results in around 11% FCF per share growth per year, a fair value of USD 570 and 4% upside to the current share price. So a further setback would probably be a top opportunity. The long-standing CEO also made insider purchases at higher prices in December and February, which is a bonus point.

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༺Yuichi༻@Yuichi

1Yr

I'm also thinking about buying $NOVO B but I already have Elli $LLY inside 😅

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NicoHerrmann@NicoHerrmann

1Yr

I hold Novo, I have an avrage buy price of 611 so hoping for some better times soon

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Deleted User

1Yr

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Yr

@MoneyMonkey1978 This list may also help: https://getqu.in/1vJE6S/

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1Yr

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m0rten@m0rten

1Yr

@Memo0606 Are currently at a nice support zone, but could also go one level lower. Better to wait for the bottom to form first

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Deleted User

1Yr

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m0rten@m0rten

1Yr

@Memo0606 My buy-in is actually at 450€:) But I would like to add one more share

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Deleted User

1Yr

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Yr

@Memo0606 @m0rten is right, of course: it could go even lower. 450€ is a top buy-in. I made the following assumptions for the next 10 years: 8% sales growth, 2.5% buybacks, 50% FCF margin, 2% terminal growth, 8% discount rate. This results in around 11% FCF per share growth per year, a fair value of USD 570 and 4% upside to the current share price. So a further setback would probably be a top opportunity. The long-standing CEO also made insider purchases at higher prices in December and February, which is a bonus point.

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Deleted User

1Yr

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Yr

@Memo0606 I already have the first tranche in. When it approaches €450, I'll add more. I'm still keeping a third tranche open.

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Deleted User

1Yr

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The W.@thewolfofallstreetz

1Yr

@Memo0606 Hard to imagine, but anything is possible. The biggest drawdown in the last 5 years was 44%, currently we are at 19%. But it could just as well have been the bottom, so I'm going in with tranches.

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