Disclaimer: This is not an investment recommendation, nor is this article intended to motivate you to consider Pokemon cards as an investment. Although graphs and historical growth of certain products are highlighted, future profit growth is by no means guaranteed. I am merely sharing personal research based on data sources, my own experience and insights from my personal Pokemon card collection.
Yes, I think we've all seen them before - whether at the newsstand, through relatives and acquaintances, on TV, through our own children or back then in the schoolyard: of course we're talking about Pokemon cards (formerly known as "Pocket Monsters"). These were first published in Japan in October 1996 as a classic trading card game. I would like to point out at this point that I will not go into the rules of the game or the process in this article, as this would go beyond the scope and would not fit the topic.
Parallel to the release of the cards, Nintendo games were also launched on the market, which gave Pokemon a huge boost in terms of awareness and popularity. The cards were officially released in the USA in December 1998. There was no end to the hype - the release in Europe finally followed in 1999.
The first major Pokemon set was the "First Edition Base Set", produced by "Wizards of the Coast". I will only go into this set to a limited extent, as 1st edition products always achieve a special value due to the collector's passion. However, many cards were played with at the time and not regarded as investment items. For comparison: A complete box (display) cost around 110 USD back then. Today, in 2025, such a display is traded at between USD 350,000 and USD 500,000.
However, since hardly anyone owns a time machine and only very few have kept such a display, the comparison with an ETF such as the MSCI World would not really be fair or realistic. So on with the story:
Pokemon hit like a rocket. In the first year alone, sales in the USA - and mind you, only with trading cards - amounted to over USD 300 million. The franchise even overtook the established "Magic: The Gathering" and became the leading trading card game. This was followed by numerous new sets such as Jungle, Fossil, Base Set 2, Team Rocket and many more.
I was there myself as a child - and like many in the school playground, I was completely fascinated: Cards were idolized, stuffed into jeans, traded and discussed. I wanted to become a Pokemon trainer - it didn't quite work out. Or did it?
Pokemon developed into an absolute giant over the years. Not only on the trading card market, but also through video games, merchandise, licenses, etc. Today, the Pokemon Company is the most successful media franchise in the world with estimated lifetime revenues of around USD 150 billion - just crazy.
Back to the topic: Pokemon as an investment?
About five years ago, at the beginning of the Covid crisis, the hype surrounding Pokemon cards had died down considerably. The children had grown up and many collectors had other priorities. Cards had become more of a nerd hobby - not for the mainstream. Many believed that the hype was finally over.
But then Logan Paul (quite a clown in my opinion) came along and opened a First Edition Base Set display live in front of an audience of millions. The packs sold for 30,000 to 40,000 USD - a single pack of 11 cards! This was the turning point: Pokemon was back, and with a vengeance.
Every influencer jumped on the bandwagon, booster packs were opened worldwide, videos were produced, prices were compared - the market was on fire. The pandemic gave many people time, money and nostalgia - and they saw old cards turn into small fortunes. That aroused desire. I myself was also back in the game.
The secondary market was extremely fueled. Cards that were available for a few dollars before the pandemic were suddenly going for three or four-figure sums over the counter. And there was no end in sight.
My ETB theory - Why an elite trainer box outperforms the MSCI World
ETB stands for "Elite Trainer Box". These are released with every new set and contain 8-10 booster packs, dice, sleeves, instructions, energy cards and sometimes a special card. Originally intended for gaming, they have become a coveted collector's item.
My theory: If you buy an ETB on release and leave it unopened, it will beat any World ETF in the long term - statistically speaking.
Example: The first ETB came out in 2013 in the "Plasma Storm" set - price: 34.99 USD. Today it is worth around USD 5,000. This corresponds to an annual gain of over 51% - and rising.
Of course, this is an extreme case. But newer sets are also performing strongly. The "151" set, for example, which I bought around 1.5 years ago for USD 60, is now at USD 170 - an increase in value of 183 % or around 86 % per year.
Or the brand new set "Destined Rivals", released on May 29, 2025 for USD 50 - now, a few weeks later, already at USD 90-95. That's around 80% growth in a very short space of time.
I have compiled a list of all ETBs - around 38 boxes so far - with issue price and current market value. On average, the profit per box is around USD 526 or around 38.65 % return per year.
Of course there are outliers. Not every box brings fat profits, some "only" 10%. But the trend is clear - those who regularly buy on release generally make a profit.
And yes - it is also a game of chance somewhere
You have to be honest: opening packs is pure luck. The chance of drawing a 1,000-dollar card from a set like "Prismatic Evolution" is perhaps 1:1000. Sure, it's like the lottery. But it's not just about individual cards, but about the products as a whole.
And yet: the hype continues. The Pokemon Company brings out nostalgic sets, new artwork, rare cards - they keep the market hot. Unfortunately, children often fall by the wayside because many adults, investors or scalpers buy everything and then sell it on at an overpriced price.
A few critical thoughts
Of course there are risks:
- No intrinsic value
- Low liquidity
- Fees on eBay & Co
- Storage costs, effort, time
- If you want to sell, you need a buyer
And in an emergency - inflation, war, recession - Pokemon cards are no longer a priority.
Nevertheless: I love my collection. I look at them, exchange them, sell them from time to time - and sometimes I treat myself to a pack. Not because it pays off. But because it's fun.
Conclusion
Pokemon cards - especially ETBs - have generated returns in recent years that can hardly compete with traditional investments. But they are no substitute for retirement provision or financial strategy.
The real winner? The Pokemon Company. It produces cheaply, sells expensively, targets shortages, uses FOMO, decides on reprints - and earns billions with brutal margins. That's brilliant marketing - not my few displays in the cupboard.
I've made a YTD profit of around 70% this year. Of course, that's no guarantee - but it's a hell of a lot of fun.
What do you think of Pokemon cards? Are you a collector or an "investor"? Do your children perhaps even open the packs? Or do you think: What's the point of it all?
Please note: This is first and foremost about fun. I do not recommend viewing Pokemon cards as a serious investment or comparing them to traditional financial products that are supposed to generate solid returns over decades.
PS: Thought until now that I could insert an Excel spreadsheet... unfortunately no....
$IWDA (-0.26%)
$VWRL (-0.86%)
$VWCE (-0.26%)
$HMWO (-0.26%)
#etfs
#etf
#pokemon
#rendite
