14H·

Unilever - Strong brand giant under pressure?

$ULVR (-0.27%)

I am also happy to share my analysis from my blog with you here:

Portfolio position (as at July 2025):

⤷ 83.84 shares | Average purchase price: € 47.18 | Current price: € 52.11 | Performance: +10.46 %

⤷ Dividend yield at cost: ~3.7% gross

🧼 What does Unilever actually do?

Unilever is a real long-distance runner in the global consumer goods business. Over 400 brands in more than 190 countries - many of which are familiar from everyday life: Dove, Knorr, Ben & Jerry's, Domestos, Rexona, Magnum, Lipton, Hellmann's and many more. Unilever is represented almost everywhere on supermarket shelves around the world.

The Group is currently divided into five divisions:

  • Beauty & Wellbeing (hair care, wellness, nutritional supplements)
  • Personal Care (deodorants, soaps, body care)
  • Home Care (detergents, cleaners)
  • Nutrition (soups, sauces, ready meals)
  • Ice Cream (Magnum, Langnese, Ben & Jerry's)

About 60% of sales come from emerging marketswhich makes Unilever particularly globally positioned compared to its competitors. At the same time, however, this is also a double-edged sword - more on this later.

📊 Figures: no growth, but a solid basis

Key figure2023Assessment

Turnover

59.6 billion €

+7% organic, slight decline in real terms

EBIT margin

16,7 %

Need for improvement remains

Free cash flow

7.1 billion €

Strong

Dividend

1.73 €/share

Stable, slightly increasing

Payout ratio

approx. 70-75 %

High, but covered by cash

Net debt

~€23.7 billion

Leverage at ~2.1× EBITDA

Equity ratio

~30 %

Low, but acceptable

The cash flow is the rock in the surf. The operating margin has stabilized recently - this is important because the cost explosion due to raw materials and logistics in 2021/22 has taken its toll on profitability. Unilever is losing a little in terms of volume, but can compensate for this through prices. You can't do that forever - but it still worked in 2023.

🧮 Valuation: fair, but not a bargain

The P/E ratio is approx. 19the EV/EBITDA is around 13-14and the dividend yield is 3,3 %. Unilever is therefore not cheap, but not overpriced either. For a stable, high-margin company with a global presence and a good dividend history, this is fine.

A conservative DCF model (3 % growth, 7.5 % WACC) results in a fair value of around 40 per share. We currently stand at around 52 € - therefore not a value playbut not a bubble either.

🤼 Competitor analysis: Who is fighting Unilever for the bathroom shelf?

This is where it gets exciting. Because space on the shelf is limited, especially for consumer goods. And consumers often make impulsive decisions. Unilever's biggest rivals are old acquaintances - with their very own strengths:

🥇 Procter & Gamble (P&G) - The focused efficiency giant

  • Brands: Ariel, Pampers, Head & Shoulders, Gillette, Always
  • Focus: USA & industrialized countries, high brand loyalty, excellent marketing
  • EBIT margin: ~22-23 % - significantly higher than Unilever
  • Valuation: P/E ratio ~23 - premium for premium

Classification:

P&G has significantly streamlined its portfolio and is focusing on high-margin brands. P&G is clearly more dominant in detergents, diapers, hair care - Unilever looks broader in comparison, but also somewhat more arbitrary. What P&G lacks in EM growth, it makes up for in operational excellence. For those looking for benchmarking: This is where the bar is set for Unilever.

🍫 Nestlé - The food giant

  • Brands: Nescafé, KitKat, Maggi, Purina, Mövenpick
  • Focus: Nutrition, pet food, coffee - hardly any cosmetics
  • EBIT margin: ~17-18 %
  • Valuation: P/E ratio ~24

Classification:

In the Food division, Nestlé is is vastly superior. More focus, higher margins, greater innovative strength (e.g. health science, pet food). Unilever has good brands with Knorr and Hellmann's - but not the breadth and depth of Nestlé. Nestlé also remains a relevant competitor in ice cream despite partial disposals.

😁 Colgate-Palmolive - The specialist for dental care

  • Brands: Colgate, Palmolive, Ajax, Sanex, Hill's Pet
  • Focus: Oral care, hygiene, animal nutrition
  • EBIT margin: ~22 %

Classification:

Colgate dominates the toothpaste world - with a market share of almost 40%. Unilever can compete here with Signal and Pepsodent, but mostly only in emerging markets. There are overlaps in personal care - but overall Colgate is more sharply positioned and more profitable.

💄 L'Oréal - The beauty power

  • Brands: L'Oréal Paris, Garnier, Kiehl's, Lancôme, Maybelline
  • Focus: Cosmetics, skin care, hair color
  • EBIT margin: ~20-21 %

Classification:

L'Oréal plays in a different league - premium, luxury, huge innovation apparatus. Unilever is trying to compete with acquisitions such as Paula's Choice or Nutrafol, but remains stuck in the mass market. This works in India and Africa - but L'Oréal has little competition to fear in the high-end segment.

🧼 Henkel & Reckitt - The regional challengers

  • Brands: Persil, Pril, Schwarzkopf, Finish, Sagrotan, Durex
  • Focus: Household & hygiene
  • Both with challenges: Henkel undergoing restructuring, Reckitt with partly shrinking margins

Classification:

In Europe, these brands are better known than Dove, for example - Persil versus Omo in particular is a classic. Unilever scores here with its global reach, while Henkel & Co. are particularly strong in Germany and Western Europe.

👨‍👩‍👧‍👦 The biggest threat? Own brands

The fiercest competition is now sitting directly on the supermarket shelfNo-name products, private labels, cheap alternatives. Lidl, Aldi, Carrefour, Tesco - they are massively expanding their own brands. And the quality is often "good enough".

Unilever lost market share in 2023, especially in Europe, where consumers switched to private labels as prices rose. This shows: The pricing power of brands is not limitless. The competition has fundamentally changed.

📬 Conclusion - What to do with Unilever?

Unilever is not a rocket candidate. But it is a company with strong brands, a robust balance sheet and a global setup reliably pays dividends - even in a tough environment.

Pros:

✅ Broad brand portfolio with global presence

✅ Focus on cash flow, dividends & efficiency

✅ Strong position in emerging markets

✅ Sustainability profile & transformation potential

Contra:

❌ Weak growth story

Margins under pressure due to price sensitivity & private labels

❌ No clear focus - many things, but nothing dominant

💡 Recommendation for action

DecisionAssessment

Hold

Yes - for dividend strategy & stability

Savings plan

Possible, but rather in case of price weakness (< €50)

Buy more

Only selectively - not a bargain

Sell

No - as long as cash & dividends are running

📊 SteFinanz-Ampel

CriterionValuation

Growth

🟡 Mediocre

Balance sheet quality

🟢 Solid

Dividend

🟢 Reliable

Valuation

🟡 Fair to neutral

Competitive advantages

🟢 Brands

Risk exposure

🟡 Emerging markets, inflation

✍️ My personal conclusion

I see Unilever as a stabilizer in the portfolio. Not a growth miracle, but a reliable dividend payer with a defensive profile .. The competition is strong - P&G, Nestlé, Colgate - all with their strengths. But Unilever, with its global diversification, its presence in emerging markets and its brand mix a good foundation.

I remain invested - and am considering a small savings plan in the event of setbacks below €50 to benefit from EM growth and the focus on efficiency in the long term. But there is still a lot to be done in terms of the margin for real share price fantasy.

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4 Comments

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Exciting perspective. Unilever has always been one of the candidates in my portfolio because it has always been there. I need to reconsider all these candidates 😄
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I am actually torn about Unilever $ULVR.

Normally I would say: consumer goods are always needed - it's a business that 'always runs'. On the other hand, many consumers no longer have as much money as they used to and that's where the discounters with their private labels come in.
I can definitely see a danger for manufacturers like Unilever here, as the no-nonsense products often don't do too badly in tests and often only cost half as much as branded products on the shelf. Competition from private labels is more likely to increase than disappear and it is difficult to increase margins when competition is high.
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@NichtRelevant Yes, I feel the same way. On the other hand, it's currently still a good cash cow if you like dividends.
I think anyone who buys brands once will always do so. But I support your point that own brands are strong.
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Not a dividend booster, but a rock for the portfolio. Looks now at a bottom in the market, so I started a position last week. Thx for the effort of analyzing this.
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