2Wk·

My Rewind 2024 - Getquin wrapped

Preface:

In the following, I would like to present how my portfolio has developed over the course of 2024.

This includes

1) my strategic orientation

2)Return on the portfolio.


The main topics are:

  • Moving away from individual stocks
  • Entry into gold and bitcoin
  • Factor investing



Finally, I will give my own thoughts on how to proceed.


The main changes to my portfolio that have led

to my current strategy are presented below using a short timeline.

timeline:


My timeline


Beginning of 2024

At the beginning of the year, I pursued a 70/30 core satellite

strategy. The 70% ETF core again consisted of STOXX Europe.

MSCI World, Emerging Markets.


The 30% consisted of stocks such as: $CSIQ (-1.74%) , $O (+0.03%) ,$TSM (+1.19%)
$ADM (-0.66%)
$UMI (-1.36%)
$D05 (-1.11%)
$BMW (+1.17%)
$UKW (+0.35%)
$8031 (-1.2%)
$MUV2 (+3.66%)


February

Addition of gold to my portfolio. Target size 10%. Build-up in batches.

The remaining 70/30 strategy therefore only relates to the remaining

90%.


April-June:


Entry into Bitcoin via Trade Republic in several batches

at prices between 50k and 63k.


After exchange with @Epi to the fee schedule at Trade Republic

I sold them there in order to sell Bitcoin on a dedicated crypto exchange.

exchange.


June:


Thanks to @PowerWordChill I got to grips with factor investing. A Gerd Kommer book later, and after some internet research, I decided to

decided to transform my ETF strategy into a factor ETF strategy.


July-August 2024:


Sale of my shares. Concentration on the factor portfolio.


August - September 24:


Renewed build-up of Bitcoin with the aim of making Bitcoin a

a fixed component of the portfolio. Consideration is 5%-10%

of my portfolio.


The idea. Build up an initial position, then make regular

investments of €50 per week with the aim of growing to the target size

to grow to the target size. The rapid rise in October/November led me to

led me to leave it at €50 per week. And individual purchases in

larger tranches at an early stage with a portfolio size of 2.x%.


End of December 2024:


Position size of Bitcoin almost 5%.

I am not yet including Bitcoin in my gold/ETF quota. I'm still running it on the side.


I re-evaluated my factor weighting at the end of the year

and would like to fine-tune it a little. I will briefly present the result in the

following section.


In addition, I have decided to include a small

include a small proportion of real estate stocks. However, this will probably never

part of my strategy worth mentioning and contains - as of today - only

about 3% of my portfolio and only $O (+0.03%) ).


Overall breakdown of my portfolio:


As described above, I do not yet include Bitcoin in my overall strategy

part of my overall strategy so that rebalancing remains easier. This will

change when Bitcoin reaches its target size.


The rest is made up as follows:

ETFs:

$XDEM (+0.56%) 30.3% (MSCI World Momentum)

$XDEB (-0.5%) 10.1% (MSCI World Minimum Volatility)

$XDEV (-0.1%) 10.1% (MSCI World Value)

$ZPRV (-0.28%) 15% (MSCI USA Small Cap Value Weighted)

$ZPRX (+0.02%) 6.5% (MSCI Europe Small Cap Value Weighted)

$PEH (-0.64%) 4.5% (as a quality factor on emerging markets)

$5MVL (-0.01%) 4.5% (Edge MSCI EM Value)

$SPYX (-0.45%) 9% (MSCI EM Small Cap)


Gold

$EWG2 (+0.41%) 10% Gold ETC


Getquin Rewind and own data:


At the end of the post you will find my Getquin Rewind, as I was not able to embed the image in the text:


However, according to my own calculations, this cannot be correct.


My portfolio volume at the start of the year was around €103,500 with a return of €16,693. This would correspond to a total return of 19.2%. However, we are not yet talking about a time-weighted return, as my invested capital has roughly doubled over the course of the year. I therefore estimate my TTWROR to be higher.


My own thoughts and outlook:


I do not expect any major changes in strategy over the next few years. At some point, a strategy will have to be established. If necessary, I will make some adjustments to this strategy.


This includes the fact that I am dissatisfied with the costs of the emerging markets factor ETFs. So far, however, I intend to live with it. Should I

stumble across better products, I will consider switching. Especially as long as I stay within the tax allowance when switching.


I'll also have to decide how big my Bitcoin holding should ultimately be.


If you've been reading carefully, you'll notice that a lot of money has accumulated in the last year. Big profits, big investments. Due to personal circumstances, I will not maintain these rates in the same style, but will reduce them somewhat. I expect to be able to continue investing around 1.5-2k per month. This means that my financial goals are

with an expected return of 5% adjusted for inflation over many years.


I am half hoping for major setbacks in the near future and the associated favorable entries. However, in view of the impact that minor price jolts have had on society as a whole (thanks to populism), I don't really wish for them.


Do you have any suggestions, questions or comments? Is there anything that particularly interests you?


I am also happy to receive suggestions for improvement for future posts.


Best regards,

Your Smurf


PS: @DonkeyInvestor and me, that's love ❤. And now send me your coins! (So I can reward your next post appropriately).


PPS: I hope someone is interested.

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21 Comments

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Thank you for the detailed introduction :)
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There are a few extra coins for your detailed and well-founded presentation in the comments 😍
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Well done 👍🏻 What age group are you in, if you don't mind me asking? LG Tom
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Strong. Then keep it up
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Here's your salary for now. I'll read later 😘
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Great idea.
Does factor investing mean investing in the corresponding fund for you?
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@Tenbagger2024 Correct. I invest in funds. I actually wanted to list them in a table. I have just realized that this is probably not possible and has been lost.
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@Tenbagger2024 I have added the ETFs under "Overall breakdown of my portfolio".
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@SchlaubiSchlumpf
However, the performance of the Factor Investing ETF is not very impressive.
Why is that?
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@Tenbagger2024 depends on which one you mean. Momentum should have performed exceptionally well in relation to the benchmark index. It is different with value. In recent years, large (tech) companies have generated above-average returns. So it makes sense to me that a size-weighted MSCI World might perform better than a differently weighted one.
Value on the World has now underperformed.
But it wasn't always the case that value performed worse. Unfortunately, you don't know beforehand. It is the risk of a factor. With every mix, it depends on the composition.

I don't know the weighting of many multi-factor ETFs (such as $GERD). That's why I make my own.
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How is the rest made up? Something crucial is missing. 🔍
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@Epi Oha, I realized that the table got lost during copying. I have now added it manually. Thanks :)
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Cool idea, thanks. Why $XDEB? What do you expect from $ZPRV $ZPRX $PEH and $5MVL? I would rather throw out the 5 I mentioned. Possibly also $SPYX
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@DonkeyInvestor Interesting question(s).
With the XDEB, I used the MSCI World Value, Momentum, Min Volatility and Quality ( $XDEQ ) in a backtest. For the last 26 years, the combination I mentioned has had an interesting profile.
According to Curvo, the Sharpe ratio at 60/20/20 was 0.6; the average annual growth rate was 9.29%;
If I take out the minimum volatility and replace it 1:1 with value, i.e. 60/40 momentum value, I only get slightly different results. Share ratio 0.58; return 9.51%. An interesting alternative indeed. It has to be said that 26 years is certainly not too long as far as factor investing is concerned, but at least not as short as with other ETFs.

As far as small cap value ETFs are concerned, the basic idea is that the value effect is historically particularly strong in small caps. In the backtest via Curvo in the 70/30 mix, the two together have had a return of 11.5% since 1994 with a Sharpe ratio of 0.6% The volatility is higher.

Let's move on to the last three mentioned. These are just factors on the emerging markets. The $PEH actually looks lousy in terms of historical performance, as far as I can see here at Getquin. The value and smallcap don't seem to be doing quite as badly. The more interesting question, however, would be whether they perform worse than the emerging markets. Curvo unfortunately can't find $PEH at all. According to Curvo, the other two have outperformed Emerging Markets 50/50 since 2019. However, this is not really a reliable time period.

In this sense, the low volatility and the factors on the emerging markets would be the first ones I would part with. Even with the latter, because of the high costs. Tendentially, I try to have several factors in the portfolio so as not to underperform in a downturn like the recent one in value. At the same time, I try not to chase the best factor at the moment. As far as I know, this can change. I haven't looked for any specific sources yet. However, I think you will find something about this on the internet. It's more what I've remembered from reading various sources.

What are your thoughts? And last but not least: What are your reasons for scrapping the ETFs mentioned?

Thanks for the feedback and I hope my explanation at 22:30 on the computer wasn't too cryptic as I tried to make sense of everything.
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@SchlaubiSchlumpf mega good, thank you. I'll send you a few extra coins right away. You've invested a lot of time, built up a portfolio that's right for you and checked everything cleanly and rationally. You rarely see that. Your contribution would have been even more valuable if the information had been shared directly there.

Personally, I'm not interested in volatility at all. I also like to keep things simple, which is why the ETFs I mentioned would not make it into my portfolio.
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@DonkeyInvestor Mega sweet and thank you very much. In fact, volatility is not my number one priority either. So throwing out the XDEB would be one of the first things I would do if I had to slim down. I think the 0.3% difference in returns is so marginal that I think it could be the other way around for the next 20 years. A better argument against volatility for me would be Ben Felix's statement in one of his videos that volatility is not a real factor, as it also has a high overlap with value. However, I haven't really found any good sources for this yet. But I can well imagine it.
The others on the EM bother me mainly because of the high costs. You really have to be convinced of factor investing to go for it.

Many thanks for the kind words :)
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@SchlaubiSchlumpf What do you think of multi-factor ETFs?
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@DonkeyInvestor In itself, there are good arguments in favor of a multi-factor etf. Essentially, saving time, being able to set your own weighting and tax savings. My argument against it is that I can't really get a good look at how these ETFs work. I can imagine, for example, that they would not use 30% momentum and 30% small caps, as I have. They are also more expensive than average. Even if there are good arguments for the price, I think $GERD, for example, is very expensive.
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How do you buy gold?
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@Folger $EWG2 via scalable Capital
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