Hello, everyone,
Why did I invest in Almonthy?
And why am I invested in copper, antimony, titanium, tungsten, zinc, and even gold?
Is a supercycle currently forming in the commodities market? At the very least, a look at the price trends of numerous commodities and the fact that the globally planned energy transition will create an enormous demand for a wide variety of raw materials suggests this is the case.
The planned energy transition has the potential to trigger a sustained positive price cycle for commodities. Replacing fossil fuels with alternative energy sources requires additional infrastructure, transportation, power generation, and much more. Demand for copper, for example, is likely to continue rising, while supply is already struggling to keep up.
Digitalization, the energy transition, and geopolitical arms races are sustainably multiplying demand for raw materials.
We like to tell ourselves that we live in an age of weightlessness: data instead of steel, software instead of mines, platforms instead of pipelines. That sounds like progress and is an intellectual shortcut, because every digital business model ultimately boils down to something very tangible: transformers, copper for power lines, silver contacts, uranium fuel rods, rare earth elements—and the demand for these physical materials is currently multiplying.
Artificial intelligence requires data centers, and those require energy. Energy requires raw materials. The new commodities supercycle is not a nostalgic comeback of the industrial economy or a short-term investment trend. It is the material foundation of a world that is simultaneously digitizing and rearming. Those who ignore this are investing in narratives. Those who understand it are investing in the material reality of power.
Raw material demand and military spending are rising in parallel
At the same time, global military spending has risen to over two trillion dollars per year. It is no coincidence that these two developments are occurring simultaneously.
Modern weaponry is resource-intensive; fighter jets contain tons of aluminum, titanium, and special alloys. Precision weapons and radar systems require rare earth elements, high-performance electronics rely on silver contacts, and military communications are based on complex semiconductor technology.
- Anyone who wants to possess the best and most weapons needs raw materials.
- Anyone who doesn’t want to fall behind in AI needs raw materials.
- Anyone who wants to build the best humanoid robots—and thus have the best army in the future—needs raw materials.
- Anyone who wants to achieve the highest productivity through automation needs raw materials.
When countries ramp up their military capabilities, it’s not just the budget that increases. The demand for strategic materials also rises. This is precisely where the political implications become concrete. Under the Orange Man administration, critical minerals were officially classified as strategically important resources. An executive order defined a list of “critical minerals,” which includes not only rare earth elements but also silver, uranium, and numerous other materials.
Government-Anchored Raw Materials Policy
The goal was to reduce dependence on China and to strengthen domestic production and strategic reserves. This is not a footnote, but a government-anchored raw materials policy. When a government officially classifies certain metals as security-relevant, they are no longer merely commodities but become part of the national security architecture.
China dominates large parts of the rare earth processing industry. These materials are essential for high-tech industries and military systems. Those who think strategically think in terms of supply chains. The question of whether geopolitical interests also revolve around raw materials is not speculation. It is a sober analysis of power.
How Rising Demand for Raw Materials Drives Up Costs Across the Entire System
The key factor is not just rising demand; it is the nonlinearity. Demand can grow rapidly, but supply cannot, because mining takes years. Permits take time. Political risks delay projects. At the same time, nations, tech companies, and the military are competing for the same materials.
