Epi · 2023-09-18T06:57:02.084785Z

Liebe Freunde des Markettimings, ein Hinweis auf einen Umstand, der bisher nach wenig beachtet wurde, aber signifikante Auswirkungen insbes. auf die europäischen Aktienmärkte haben könnte. Die langlaufenden europäischen Staatsanleihen (25+y Euro Gov Bonds) sind dabei, aus ihrer einjährigen Konsolidierung (Dreieck) nach unten auszubrechen. Sollte sich der Ausbruch bestätigen, dann ist das technische Abwärtspotential beträchtlich. Da die Anleihemärkte größer als die Aktienmärkte sind und v. a. von institutionellen Anlegern bearbeitet wird, ist hier typischerweise das informierte Geld. Kursveränderungen hier haben sehr oft prognostische Kraft für die Aktienmärkte. Fallende Anleihenkurse bedeuten steigende Zinsen bedeuten steigende Opportunitätskosten für Aktien bedeuten fallende Aktienkurse. Also: behaltet diese langlaufenden Anleihen im Blick! Sollte sich der Ausbruch bestätigen, dann stehen uns ungemütliche Zeiten an der Börse bevor. Und nicht nur dort... Eine ertragreiche Woche euch! $DBXG

@Epi

1Yr·

Dear friends of marketing,

I would like to point out a circumstance that has received little attention so far, but which could have a significant impact on the European stock markets in particular.

The long-dated European government bonds (25+y Euro Gov Bonds) are about to break out of their one-year consolidation (triangle) to the downside. If the breakout is confirmed, the technical downside potential is considerable.

Since the bond markets are larger than the equity markets and are primarily handled by institutional investors, this is typically where the informed money is. Price changes here very often have predictive power for the equity markets.

Falling bond prices mean rising interest rates mean rising opportunity costs for stocks mean falling stock prices.

So: keep an eye on these long-dated bonds! If the breakout is confirmed, we are in for some uncomfortable times on the stock market. And not only there...

A profitable week to you!

$DBXG (-0.15%)

13 Comments

Barsten@Barsten

1Yr

Okidoki

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Moritz@leveragegrinding

1Yr

hui, how about the weekly chart if you can't see anything in the daily?😂 :)

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Epi@Epi

1Yr

@leveragegrinding I can still see everything in the daily chart. Next time as weekly, just for you!

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Waldemar@Wowa83

1Yr

Until now, everything was a little different! Bond yields rise, share prices rise! The question is when it then develops according to textbook! 😅

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Epi@Epi

1Yr

@Wowa83 Depends on what you mean by "so far," "all," and "different." Bond yields picked up in late 2021, then the stock market started to tip. In As of late 2022, bonds stabilized and the stock market rose. So it's all textbook. What are you referring to?

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Waldemar@Wowa83

1Yr

@Epi the last approx. 2 years compared to the long-term period. When I look at bonds, yields go from top left to bottom right until around 2020. From 2020 on, they make a turn up again. When I look at the stock indices, I don't see such a big drop. For me, I conclude that one of the two is currently overvalued and needs to correct. Also, the risk returns don't fit mMn currently. Either the companies pay out more or the prices adjust. So my thought...

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six@six

1Yr

If I've heard correctly, the ECB's last interest rate hike for the time being should have been recently, which means that the long-dated bonds should slowly start to rise again. At the latest when then perhaps in the middle of next year or so the interest rates may fall again. Is only the question for me: When to get into bonds ETF with all maturities 🤷🏻‍♂️

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Deleted User

1Yr

Comment was deleted

Epi@Epi

1Yr

@Torro66 That's what it says. 👍

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Moritz@leveragegrinding

1Yr

@Torro66 you'd be surprised how wrong that ends up being, unless you invest in small caps.

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Deleted User

1Yr

Comment was deleted

Moritz@leveragegrinding

1Yr

@Torro66 😂 I actually only meant that an overall correction is also accompanied by falling individual shares, but that apparently had to get out. and yes, a -20% -30% correction I expect btw also, but I do not force anyone's opinion.

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Epi@Epi

1Yr

@Torro66 Is it possible that you have not understood something fundamental about market forecasts? They are always statements of probability. If you have the impression that "everyone is usually wrong" and only explain things afterwards, then perhaps you simply have the wrong expectations? You don't always have to be right. If you are right in the majority of cases, that's enough. And even that you don't have to if you have the right strategy. My contribution was just an info that you can use as a building block of a strategy. There have already been questions here about going allin with grandma's inheritance now. There I would say at the moment, no. But because I can be wrong, I would say 50% can be invested now and the rest later. The point of the stock market is always to process the information correctly, not to simply ignore it because you may not feel like understanding the context.

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