1Yr·

I started investing in the beginning of 2023.

The goal is create a robust portfolio that can beat SP&500.

In bull market I invest in ETFs like
$VWCE (+1.03%)
or
$SUSW (-0.91%)
and in bear market in high volatility ETFs $IUIT (-0.49%) .

I invest monthly 300€ in bull market and 500€ in bear market.

Thoughts on my strategy?

6Positions

15.63%

11 Comments

Mihai@mihaipr

1Yr

Not bad, but to me it looks like you are duplicating a lot of very similar ETFs. With that amount of money you can't buy all monthly or on a more frequently basis. So I would stick with just one global ETF and one of the SP500. Some of them have even quite high TER. I was doing a lot of over diversification and lost a lost of profit in the last 3 years. It is true that while the whole market fell 10-20% I was at a merely -5%

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Diogo M.@Diogo241

1Yr

@mihaipr yes, there are some etfs that duplicate itself and with an high TER. I 'm gonna switch $SUSW for $VHVG, wich has a lower TER.

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Mihai@mihaipr

1Yr

You should check the correlation between them, cross compare the companies inside

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Ruud@Rsoeters

1Yr

In general not a bad strategy. An all world etf and / or a S&P500 etf is a solid base but i dont think you'll outperform the S&P (as you buy into exactly that). You will go up and down with all the 500 companies that are in the ETF. If you want to outperform, I believe that you will have to make some individual stock investments that indeed outperform the market. Start with 10 % allocation of your portfolio and build it up when you feel more confident.

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Diogo M.@Diogo241

1Yr

@Rsoeters tks. Buying some individual stocks seems a good idea to outperform the market. Do you think that buying in bear market etfs like $IUIT , $SEMI or $XAIX could make me outperform SP500?

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Ruud@Rsoeters

1Yr

@Diogo241 . That would also be an idea. Of course it is good to buy when stocks are low. The danger is with this, that you indicate 3 etfs that are at the moment complete booming and is a lot in the news. So when do you know it is a bear market? So let me say to do the research and read a lot on the different aspects of investing ( i know that can be overwelming with so many sectors and even more companies). But what you say is that you want to invest cyclically (is that your desired strategy?); when a sector is down you go in for the kill. When that will happen is anyones guess, but have a look at the following website to give you an idea where we are in the cycle: https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?[SECT]

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Diogo M.@Diogo241

1Yr

@Rsoeters to know the bear market, i' m gonna use the SMMA. When the SP500 is below SMMA, i'm gonna invest in risky ETFs. Using stocks seems to me a good strategy, but i have to learn more about technical and fundamental analysis

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Waldo@Waldo

1Yr

Not sure you can time the market better than the Market times itself, certainly as it comes to etfs. So I'd keep your monthly etf contributions equal month on month.

Personally, I save a fixed amount for etfs, but try to move a symmetrically on shares (though not sure I'm successful)

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Diogo M.@Diogo241

1Yr

@Waldo to time the market, i' m gonna use the SMMA. When the SP500 is below SMMA, i'm gonna invest in risky ETFs.

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Mihai@mihaipr

1Yr

@Diogo241 on which period? 200 days? 14 days? 365 days?
the results will be everytime different. If this is long term, it won't matter, and I think it will just make you waste time in the market. There was somewhere a study with somebody doing backtest monte carlo simulations on lump sum vs all kinds of different strategies (buy only if there is a fall for more than x days, buy just a little and then only if there is a fall, etc) on the SP500. The results were almost always the same: the sooner you put a big sum of money to work, the better, if we talk about 30+ years. Market timing is achieved only by insiders or lucky traders.

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Mihai@mihaipr

1Yr

outperforming the SP500 means you take in considerable risks. Standard deviations of 50% or more are not uncommon when going for individual high performing stocks. Some opt for NASDAQ100, for a bit more risk. Or you could go straight and do DCA on the magnificent 7, assuming none of them goes bust. Just the price of the individual stocks could be a setback. If you put a max of 10% on the risky side of the portfolio, that looks like a good strategy to me. Good luck!

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