What I also noticed is that the 40-30-30 strategy compared to the All World ETF but not so well performant has, could not one then theoretically everything in the etf hauen, if this eh better performant. A disadvantage would certainly be that one could then make no own weighting of the regions
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1Yr
@willemkly Well seen! Try to find out why the AllWorld performed better. And when, because 2000-2010 things looked quite different.
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@Epi what just falls away is the manual division. You can just throw out nothing so moderate
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11
•1Yr
@willemkly That can also be an advantage. You don't make things worse. 😂
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@Epi right. But now I have to ask you something about the Gtaa strategy. When do you decide whether you sell an etf again and have cash? Because you do not wait until the etf slips below the 200 day line again, so you would not make a profit.
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1Yr
@willemkly The rules for selling at the turn of the month are clear: 1. when an ETF no longer has the strongest momentum. 2. when an ETF falls below SMA200. this is the model, if you want to deviate from it, you can do it, but it will be difficult to be more successful. the model comes from the observation of the last 200 years of stock market, that above SMA200 the probability of rising prices is higher than below. but in your intuition I agree, it is strange to invest in an ETF that has moved 20% away from its SMA200. Here I had also considered investing a shorter SMA above a certain difference, so as not to lose the gains. But I'm afraid that would be an illusion. I must backtest.
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@Epi Understand so I look then at the ETFs at the end of the month when it zb nen long kink have or simply no longer nen hochpumpt has possibly to sell or if he falls below the 200 day left. At the same time I look if another etf I do not have in the depot, has risen above the 200 day line
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1Yr
@willemkly Not quite. It is best to look again in the article, there are the rules exactly in it. You can also drive the 40-30-30 approach defensively with the SMA200, i.e. halved risk with hardly less return: You have these 3 shares in the depot. Check every month whether an ETF is below SMA200 and if so, you go with this share in cash or in bonds. You can apply this variant flexibly to any portfolio allocation and all ETFs. I.e. you can also take more aggressive ETFs, e.g. Nasdaq100 and take out the downside risk with the SMA200. Might not be a bad solution for your skill level.
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@Epi Super yes I also thought of that, you can transfer the really good. Whereas if the etf in which one is invested falls below the 200 left then it would be almost too late, because then you would have no profit. Because if you had been invested in the from the moment he has broken through the 200 line
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1Yr
@willemkly This is not true in general! As long as the SMA200 rises and the ETF quotes above it, you make a profit. The SMA strategy has a few pitfalls, you should know (keyword: Wipsaw effect). But all in all it is successful because most of the price rises take place above and most of the crashes below. It is a rather boring, defensive strategy, but it smooths the yield curve.
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•@Epi @Epi yes good but if a kink comes in the trend, you have to look early enough possibly sold again before it falls back below the SMA200 or? @Epi yes I like that. Am now slowly quite good in it. Yes you just have to estimate when approximately a price change takes place again to go out early enough to take profit. thank you. Just pay attention to the EM, as a trend change now took place. Although still well below the 200 day line but I'm watching it.
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