Hi everyone,
I wanted to introduce you to a stock from my portfolio that often flies under the radar, but delivers just the right fundamental performance: $TRYG (+1.08%)
I live in Denmark myself and see every day how dominant they are here (market leader in Scandinavia). For all those who focus on quality, high margins and dividends, here is the current status (based on Q3 2025 figures):
đ° The business model
Tryg is the largest non-life insurer in Scandinavia. Boring? Yes. But extremely profitable.
They collect premiums, manage claims more efficiently than almost anyone else and invest the "float".
đ The quality (the "core quality" check)
In the insurance world, the combined ratio is everything.
The rule: anything below 90-95% is good.
The reality at Tryg: In the last quarter (Q3 2025), the combined ratio was an extremely high 78.6%.
If you convert that into a margin, we end up with an operating margin of over 21%.
For my valuation scale, this means that it's not just "solid", it's in the "high quality" range. In other words, they are technically earning money before they even collect the interest from the fixed assets.
đ° The bare figures (as of Q3 2025)
Turnover (insurance revenue): We are talking about approx. DKK 10 billion per quarter (approx. DKK 40 billion annualized). The most recent currency-adjusted growth was 3.4 %. Not hyper-growth, but steady.
Dividend: Most recently there was DKK 2.05 per share for the quarter (+5% year-on-year increase). Extrapolated to the year as a whole, we have a relaxed dividend yield of ~5%.
Cash flow coverage: The distribution is covered by the operating profit, the solvency ratio is a very healthy 204%.
đ Why right now?
Synergies are taking effect: The acquisition of RSA (Trygg-Hansa/Codan) has been digested, the economies of scale in Sweden and Norway are pushing the expense ratio down to a very low ~13%.
Timing: The annual report for 2025 will be published on January 22. If they confirm the Q3 trend, the year should end extremely strong.
â ď¸ Risks:
Weather: storms in Scandinavia can mess up individual quarters (Q3 was very merciful here though).
Currency: Purchases are made in Danish kroner (DKK), which is effectively pegged to the euro (Peg).
đŻ Conclusion:
Anyone looking for "story stocks" is in the wrong place. Anyone looking for a cash flow machine that operates with margins >20% and pays quarterly should take a look at Tryg before the next figures on January 22.
For me, this is a clear "anchor" stock in the portfolio.
Any thoughts on this? Is it still on anyone's radar?
Addendum: Important: This is almost exclusively about property and casualty insurance (P&C), not complex life insurance.
The business model is simple: people pay their premiums, Tryg invests the money (float) and manages the claims extremely efficiently.
90-95% = solid average (Allianz is often around 93-95%).
Tryg regularly delivers values around 82-84%.
That is world class.
This means that for every euro of premiums collected (before investment income), around 16-18 cents are retained as technical profit. Only very few companies in the world manage this (such as Progressive in the USA).
