Some of you know me on this platform as a Tesla Bull (3 years now). But it's important to remain objective and not embellish everything this company reveals.
Unlike many other investors in Tesla, I still attach importance to the core car business and the figures in this area were really bad. Also, the forecast that over the next four quarters the numbers will continue to be bad is even scarier to me. I have no understanding of why there can be so little talk about the poor production numbers of the Cyber Truck and Model S & X. However, I do see a reason why their core business, i.e. the production of the Model 3 & Y, is stagnating. This reason would be the high interest rates, because Americans only rush into car loans on a massive scale when interest rates are low and a higher production figure could mean that supply massively exceeds demand, which is likely to rise again in periods of low interest rates. I don't really care about Tesla's profitability as they are investing heavily in innovation in all areas and I am very much in favor of that. Tesla's average production costs continue to fall, so I am anything but worried. It is also important to look not only at Tesla, but also at the numbers of the competition over the same period to see if there are macroeconomic reasons for the performance in the last few quarters, such as the key interest rate mentioned earlier.
Tesla will soon be launching a new, more affordable model that will allow them to reach a different price bracket, namely that of households that would currently like to buy a Tesla but don't have the money to do so. In my opinion, this buying interest is independent of the current interest rate, as some of these households can most likely afford a car for $25,000, but not for $50,000, no matter what the interest rate is. I have never been an investor who has sold my entire position because of short-term prospects. I continue to see the potential for Tesla to double its market value in 3-5 years by pursuing its current goals. By the end of the year, for example, we will see Robotaxis in almost a dozen cities with a population of 50% of the US.
If that goal is narrowly missed, I'm fine with it as long as it wasn't a technical obstacle that kept Tesla from reaching that goal. We'll probably all be waiting for Optimus until we have gray hair, but the robotaxi business is happening now and Tesla is generating revenue. So now it's all about scaling and improving the technology to the point where it can scale faster and faster.
I am still invested in Tesla with around 50% of my portfolio. That's a very high weighting, which I've been aware of since I built it up. My mentality that Tesla has a lot of potential to achieve a large market capitalization with some of its business models in the future, especially since I am still young, has given me the support to maintain this position for years. My love for this brand is great. If I had the money, I would only drive a Tesla for a considerable time. The M4 on your lock screen on my phone is an Ultra Red Model 3 Performance and I'm proud of it. I've already test driven the car and love it. Especially since the Tesla salesman offered it to me even though he knew I wouldn't be able to buy it afterwards, no matter how great I think it is. I've talked a lot with Tesla employees, sat in Tesla vehicles and driven them temporarily. I can say that I want to continue to support this brand and I will be even more excited if this brand actually gets back on a path where exponential growth in an innovative field is the case in the here and now. I see this happening in the near future in the Robotaxi sector.
