2Wk·

Made & Controlled in the USA: Europe's F-35 fleets as an expensive security dilemma

First countries reconsider their orders, Portugal has now canceled, Turkey now wants Eurofighters. Eurofighter, Gripen and Rafale as alternatives.

In Europe, and particularly among the USA's NATO partners, uncertainty about political and military relations between the USA under Donald Trump and Europe has been growing steadily since his inauguration in January 2025. Trump's statements and especially his actions in recent weeks have shown unmistakably that the USA is no longer a reliable partner for Europe (and presumably also NATO) and does not want to be.

Especially those European countries that, in response to Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine F-35 fighter jets from Lockheed Martin $LMT (-2.06%) worth well over 250 billion euros are now faced with a critical dilemma:

Technically, Europe's F-35 fleets can be deactivated by the US at any time, as each aircraft relies on US-controlled launch codes and proprietary US communication and navigation systems (see also the deactivation of Ukrainian HIMARS systems (from Lockheed Martin $LMT (-2.06%) ) in the last few days. Source: Tagesspiegel, March 2025). In the event of a crisis, the USA could practically paralyze the European air forces or at least prohibit missions. The USA had already done this with Egyptian F-16 fighter jets in 2014. (Source: T-Online, February 2025)

Since 2022, 12 European countries have ordered around 550 F-35 fighter jets (in different variants and versions):

Germany: 35
Romania: 32 (additionally planned: 16)
Czech Republic: 24
Finland: 64
Switzerland: 36
Netherlands: 52 (including additional orders)
Poland: 32
Belgium: 34
Italy: 90 (60 F-35A and 30 F-35B)
Norway: 52
United Kingdom: 48 (planned: 138)
Denmark: 27

The first countries are already taking action: Portugal recently announced that it was halting the planned procurement of F-35 fighter jets and looking at European alternatives instead.

"The Portuguese Defense Minister Nuno Melo has announced that the country will not purchase F-35 fighter jets from the United States in view of the current geopolitical situation and the unpredictability of US policy. Instead, alternatives from European production will also be considered." (Source: Poder Aéreo, March 2025)

Turkey also recently received a concrete offer for 40 Eurofighter jets from Airbus $AIR (-2.2%) BAE Systems $BA. (+2.48%) and Leonardo $LDO (+2.04%) - a clear sign of distancing itself from the USA.

"Turkey plans to procure a total of 40 Eurofighter Typhoon Tranche 4 fighter jets in the form of 20+20. All Tranche 4 jets, which represent the most advanced Typhoon configuration for air-to-air combat, will be newly produced.

However, Ankara can also procure a number of used Typhoons for training purposes. This possibility is also currently under discussion." (Source: Al-Monitor, March 2025).

If other European countries follow these examples, European fighter aircraft manufacturers could benefit considerably. Now, fighter aircraft are not of-the-shelf products that are mass-produced (with the exception of the F-35, unfortunately). Germany primarily opted for the F-35 because only the F-35 can be equipped with the nuclear weapons stationed in Germany (the use of nuclear weapons stationed in Germany - even just transportation from A to B - requires joint technical approval by Germany and the USA).

In my opinion, Gripen (Saab $SAAB B (+3.13%) ) and Eurofighter (Airbus $AIR (-2.2%) BAE Systems $BA. (+2.48%) Leonardo $LDO (+2.04%) MTU Aero Engines $MTX (-0.86%) etc) would be the most attractive alternatives in the short term. The Saab Gripen has an almost unbeatable price-performance ratio (especially thanks to the low service and maintenance costs) and the infrastructure for Eurofighter is already solidly developed. Dassault Aviation $AM (-0.67%) (Rafale) should of course not be underestimated either, but I see it in 3rd place.

I can well imagine that this costly security dilemma is currently being hotly debated in Europe's defense ministries and that exit strategies are already being evaluated. I can also imagine that European buyers of the F-35 are holding on to their canceled orders as leverage in case Trump imposes even more dramatic punitive tariffs or even escalates to a whole new level. In addition to the orders for F-35s, the Europeans are also likely to be reviewing their orders for HIMARS and the like.

However, one thing is already clear to the Europeans: Europe must become sovereign as quickly as possible - in terms of security policy, economy and technology - and can no longer rely on the USA. After Portugal and probably also Turkey, I expect more F-35 dominoes to fall in the near future.

Sources:

https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/internationale-politik/id_100609126/general-alarmiert-usa-koennten-europaeische-f-35-jets-abschalten.html

https://www.aereo.jor.br/2025/03/13/portugal-descarta-compra-de-cacas-f-35-e-avalia-alternativas-europeias/

https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2025/03/turkey-receives-price-offer-40-eurofighter-jets-amid-trump-eu-rift

https://www.tagesspiegel.de/internationales/usa-deaktivieren-zielerfassung-bei-den-himars-verliert-die-ukraine-jetzt-eine-ihrer-effektivsten-waffen-13327513.html

www.t-online.deUS-Kontrolle: Kann Trump die EU-Jets abschalten?

9 Comments

NichtRelevant@NichtRelevant

2Wk

As mentioned, the situation is different for Germany than for many other NATO allies. Nuclear sharing virtually forces Germany to buy the F35 jets, as the existing Eurofighters are not authorized to carry nuclear bombs. A USA under Trump could thus deny 'us' both - the use of nuclear weapons and the effective use of aircraft. This would be all the more bitter as not only our own air-based defense would largely fail, but also that of our European neighbors, who have also relied on these jets and (in contrast to the German Air Force) will in some cases rely exclusively on this type of aircraft in the future.

Realistically, in my opinion, Germany will go through with the order for the F35, as the USA can be expected to be more reliable again after Trump. Also, the F35 is only coming on stream slowly and pilot training is still ongoing - so they won't be operational for a few years anyway.

The Europeans would be well advised not to rely on one type of aircraft. Germany has the Eurofighter and is also modernizing it and it is coming (lucky that the American Growler has not prevailed here) as an ELOKA variant for electronic warfare and radar jamming.
Other European countries could buy a very good and comparatively inexpensive aircraft in the form of the (Super) Grippen (for us it is the slightly better, but significantly more expensive Eurofighter due to industrial policy), but you have to be careful there too, as US engines are installed there. They probably can't be switched off, but if there are no spare parts available at the crucial moment, it's bad of course.

In the medium term, the British and some other Europeans are developing an aircraft similar to the F35 - Turkey too. That would be a good replacement or supplement for the F35 - but in my opinion it's still too far away to be used in the European armed forces in the near future.

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Silas@Bein-Godik

2Wk

@NichtRelevant Thank you for this information. Why can't the Eurofighter actually carry nuclear weapons? Is this due to the technology or has the USA not approved this? The Tornado has also been equipped for this?

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NichtRelevant@NichtRelevant

2Wk

@Bein-Godik At the moment, the Tornado is the only aircraft in the air force that can carry nuclear bombs. The aircraft was an awesome piece of equipment in its day, but is now obsolete and has long since been decommissioned by other user nations. The supply of spare parts is extremely difficult and expensive. It is difficult to pit the Tornados against a modern enemy air force. In any case, you would have to send enough flying electronic jamming capability to saturate the enemy's air defense with (fake) targets so that the Tornado can get through.
The Eurofighter is much more modern, but does not have the stealth capability of an F35 (nor does the Tornado, of course). All aircraft carrying US bombs have to be certified by the US for this capability, the Eurofighter does not have this certification. Certification would theoretically be possible, but in practice the USA would take an extra long time (we're talking years) to avoid messing up the sale of the F35. In addition, the Europeans would in principle have to 'drop their pants' and hand over the technology and specifications of the Eurofighter completely to the Americans. Of course, they don't want that either.
The purchase of F16s or F18s - an older and cheaper American aircraft type that would only have to be 'recertified' - was also briefly discussed. However, these aircraft would not have had stealth characteristics and so the decision was probably made against them. Even with the F16, the USA seems to have the means to intervene, as can now be seen in Ukraine.

Conclusion: I think the F35 will come to the Luftwaffe. However, it might be a good idea to increase the number of Eurofighters at the same time. If you want to secure the nuclear option without the USA being able to intervene, you would have to join forces with the French or the British. However, it should be borne in mind that the nuclear weapons stationed in Germany are tactical ('small' - originally intended for use against an overpowering conventional attack by the Soviets) nuclear weapons, whereas the French and British, as far as I know, have primarily or exclusively strategic nuclear weapons (the really big warheads - if they fly, it will be really tight for humanity).

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Enrique@Dividenden_Monteur

2Wk

@NichtRelevant A short addendum to your penultimate paragraph:
The Americans would have the same problem if we turned off the spare parts tap.
Especially systems from $LMT that use any kind of optics are 100% dependent on German machines and suppliers.

I think that the raw glass even comes from Schott, but I'm only 50% sure, as my access at the Lockheed plant was strictly limited.
Otherwise I agree with you.

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NichtRelevant@NichtRelevant

2Wk

@Dividenden_Monteur Thanks for the addition. Actually, the industries of the western countries are linked to each other and that makes perfect sense. In the past, it was never thought that they would get in each other's way.
The whole thing has only come up now because under Trump it is no longer clear whether the USA is still part of our defense, or whether the current American government is not selling off Central and Western Europe to Russia or the highest bidder for a few natural resources.

It's sad that decades of security policy are being flushed down the toilet. I think 'forward defense', 'flexible response' and 'total retailiation' are concepts that Trump has never heard of. I also don't think he realizes that in a hopefully never occurring major conflict between the USA and Russia, Europe would be extremely important to run several theaters of operation in parallel. It's cruel, but unfortunately we in Europe will probably have to equip ourselves to the extent that we can manage without the USA.

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Enrique@Dividenden_Monteur

2Wk

@NichtRelevant I see this as an opportunity for Europe.
Especially here on getquin, you can see how your own continent is constantly underestimated.

And Trump's quote on the Huthi rebels just ran over the ticker: "We will use overwhelming lethal force until we achieve our goal".
In the same breath, his Secretary of Defense wrote a threat to Iran.

Before the election, he claimed that he would not open up any new sources of conflict, but Trump is just Trump.
Perhaps it is a good thing that Europe is now moving closer together and becoming more independent.

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Dussel D.@DusselDuck

2Wk

According to my information, the F35 does not have a "kill switch". This was also the result of investigations in the user countries Switzerland and Belgium.
Nevertheless, continuous operation is not possible without the USA (spare parts, updates)

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boz@boz

2Wk

With the exception of the Israeli F-35, all F-35s use the American operating system (so to speak). Part of this US software package, which is fundamental to the superior functionality of the F-35 (and for many European countries the main reason for purchasing the F-35), is the associated software updates. These updates can be applied via a continuous data link in quasi-real time and can also be uploaded to the network from an F-35 and contain radar signatures and corresponding countermeasures for enemy radar systems. Without this data link via US satellites, an F-35 is only half as good and not worth its price. This means that the USA at least has the option of threatening F-35 users with the temporary or permanent interruption of this data link if they want to use the F-35 against US interests. Apart from that, the US has taken precautions to make it impossible for a non-US user of the F-35 to attack US targets. And the "interests of the US" are now Trump's interests.

To better understand the frequency with which these software updates are rolled out and are necessary: Russia changes the (very simplified) radar identifiers of its systems in its war of aggression against Ukraine, sometimes several times a week, depending on necessity.

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Dussel D.@DusselDuck

2Wk

Allow me to ask what source you have for your statement "That being said, the US has taken precautions that make it impossible for a non-US user of the F-35 to attack US targets"? Thank you.

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