1Wk·

Iris: First installment

-> $IREN (+7.35%) pure

-> $MSFT (+0.01%) liquidated and 1/3 of the sum in Irish

See the company at $100+

Have a solid core and am young student who can take the risk!

20.08

IRE

Iris Energy

Bought x80 at €15.99

€1,279.20

17 Comments

F@Cai-pirinha

1Wk

could I imagine that a march through to ~€13 is on the cards?

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Aktienfox@Aktienfox

1Wk

@Derspekulant1 you are looking at a current PE ratio, doesn't make sense with Irish. P/S of 9.5 with current 100% growth would be 3.3 in the future with a conservative 50%. In addition, EPS of $1.2 is forecast for next year and they are currently investing every penny

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Der Spekulant@Derspekulant1

1Wk

@Aktienfox
You're looking at the future, makes no sense at the current valuation. Your arguments are the same ones you hear in every hype stock just before reality hits.

- Rule of 40 is not a free ride: Sure, the Rule of 40 is being pulverized at over 128%. But that's only because sales growth has exploded from a tiny base. If the profit margin is zero or negative, this is not a sign of strength, but of "growth at any cost". That can work, but it's a bet, not an investment case.

- Your "conservative" growth is a joke: dropping from over 100% to a "conservative" 50% is a massive drop, not a solid base. What happens if growth falls to a normal 20-30%? Then your forward CUV of 3.3 is suddenly no longer so cheap.

- The €100 illusion: Let's do the math. At €100 per share (~$108), we're talking about a market capitalization of over $22 billion - that's five times what it is now. And for what? For projected earnings per share (EPS) of $1.20? That gives a forward P/E ratio of 90. Are you seriously suggesting that a P/E ratio of 90 for a Bitcoin miner with a fresh AI fantasy is a fair price?

- "They're investing every penny": that's not a strength, that's a necessity. Competition is brutal in the Bitcoin mining and AI cloud business. If you don't invest every penny in the latest hardware, you'll be out of business tomorrow. That's not called investing, it's called fighting for survival.

The €100 is pure speculation based on the assumption that the extreme growth of the last 12 months will continue forever. That has never worked.

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Chris@Multibagger

1Wk

I think it's good that you occasionally put the brakes on and warn people who are not invested. But you know yourself that your last sentence is nonsense, don't you? It has worked before, even if the companies are not comparable. But it worked for $NVDA, $PLTR or even $AMZN and nobody believed it when they were at 15$. I am generally very skeptical about miners. But with $IREN I am convinced that the main revenue will not come from mining in the not too distant future.

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BamBamInvest@BamBamInvest

1Wk

@Aktienfox none of this will matter if they land a colocation deal, similar with $CIFR. Let's hope that $BTC holds up, perhaps reaches a new all-time high and then a colocation deal with a hyperscaler is announced, then the current price can still be described as very favorable ☺️

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Aktienfox@Aktienfox

1Wk

@Derspekulant1 you are comparing apples with oranges, have you already looked at the company.
They currently have 100% growth and I have simply taken 50% as an example for you as a conservative approach. Why should the current turnover fall to this level?
If Bitcoin falls, will it be accumulated and sold later?
Take a look at the margins, in the BTC business a coin costs 40K and they mine 700 a month. In addition, they are at horizon 1 this year and horizon 2 in the future, these data centers alone produce a revneue per share of projected 5$ EPS growth over the next year... you also have to take the growth into account .... must stop writing here for the time being

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Der Spekulant@Derspekulant1

1Wk

@Aktienfox
I'm not comparing apples with oranges. I'm comparing your wishful thinking with the reality of the market. I've been with IREN since my EK was €9, so don't tell me anything about the company just because you're now jumping on the bandwagon at €15.
To your points:

* Growth: it's not about sales falling. The point is that the growth rate of over 100% is not sustainable forever. That's a mathematical reality, not an opinion. When the rate returns to a normal level, the valuation will look different.

* Bitcoin strategy: hodling BTC when the price falls is a double-edged sword. This is also called "leverage on a volatile underlying". Can go well, but can also tear up the balance sheet when the bear market strikes.

* Margins: The margin of 40k per coin is only impressive as long as the BTC price plays along and the mining difficulty does not explode after the next halving. That's the basics of the mining business.

* The $5 EPS fantasy: And now to your forecast. Jumping from the current barely profitable business to an EPS of 5$ is not analysis, it's wishful thinking from the bull market handbook. The current, serious forecasts are $1.20. Your $5 is pure fantasy to somehow justify the €100 price.

You see the current momentum. I'm sitting on my 9-euro EK and have learned that such hype cycles rarely end the way the new fans hope.

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Aktienfox@Aktienfox

1Wk

@Derspekulant1 I have the 5 usd related to revenue... the rest is hardly relevant bätenmakrt under 40,000 is then totaled then sold I do not expect 100% growth and co... I can possibly make a post about what my thesis is but I'm very busy right now so such a short post only

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Der Spekulant@Derspekulant1

1Wk

@Aktienfox all good, I can also recommend the podcasts by Jan Beckers and his crypto fund manager Han at Beckers Bets.

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Chris@Multibagger

1Wk

@Derspekulant1 At least our buy-in is the same. I have time and can wait for the Tenbagger. 😉 And if it only quintuples in the end, that's good too.

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Der Spekulant@Derspekulant1

1Wk

@Multibagger I also have the time, but I think it's a bit exaggerated to talk about €100 as a forecast 😬

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Chris@Multibagger

1Wk

@Derspekulant1 Thank goodness the stock market leaves everyone a little room for dreams, whether realistic or not. 😉 Others dream of a $BTC price of several million. Not within reach for me either.

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Der Spekulant@Derspekulant1

1Wk

@Multibagger then we are already 2, then rather iren to 100 😂

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Der Spekulant@Derspekulant1

1Wk

Of course why not, it would only be a P/E ratio of 417. 😅

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Michey777@Michey777

1Wk

I see the following. July (attribution to 2026) there was a hardware profit of $66mio. With a 50 EH/s and the assumptions bitcoin on average $115k and amortized costs for energy and sales, this makes an annualized profit of approx. $830mio. That's a pretty respectable P/E ratio for 2026 (without AI) hype

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Bastibroschi@Bastibroschi

1Wk

It's a good company, currently still one of my top 3 positions. It was 40% of my portfolio in April, but I have now sold 3/4 of my position. If it goes down again, I'll buy more, but it's possible that the next month will be a bit more volatile.

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Bastibroschi@Bastibroschi

1Wk

@Aktienfox by the way, I also wrote a post about it if you want to take a look :))

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