$ATVI
Why the current situation around the Activision Blizzard acquisition could offer a good opportunity
If you look at the criticisms of the antitrust authorities and Sony, it always comes down to one topic: Call of Duty!
It is feared that Microsoft's power in the gaming industry could become too great, they want to disadvantage gamers and put the competition under pressure. It is mostly ignored that Microsoft has made a clear and binding statement in this regard, ruling out the possibility of CoD becoming Xbox exclusive in the next 10 years. Since the biggest point of criticism has already been refuted by Microsoft itself, the other side might have problems finding arguments in court. In addition, there is the fact that Activision Blizzard really wants the takeover. Or rather, Kotick wants it, because he would rather receive billions in severance pay than continue to run a heavily criticized company in whose mismanagement he is not insignificantly involved. The takeover by Microsoft could also have a positive influence on the industry in this aspect (sexism and aggressive personnel policies are not an issue at MS, as far as I know). If MS is smart they could also present this argument in court.
I personally estimate the probability of a successful takeover at over 90%! (Only my personal opinion, there are voices that are much more pessimistic).
Now we come to the alternative scenario, the takeover fails:
Although this would negatively impact the price in the first moment, which for me would be another good buying opportunity, but would recover mMn quite quickly and priced to the new circumstances. You have to keep in mind that the announced takeover was already a year ago. A fantastic year for AB with good results whereby especially CoD exceeded all expectations. The share price has stagnated since then because only the planned takeover is relevant, but the value of the company should have increased since then. A year in a strong growing industry in which they are among the largest would have had an impact on the share price under normal circumstances.
Therefore, I believe that even in the case of a failed takeover, you can currently get a good company at an attractive price. Should it fall after the burst of the takeover stronger than expected will be bought again and with a little patience, the investment should still be worthwhile.
In my opinion, we are currently in an extremely lucrative situation where you can either make a decent return over a short period of time or get a top company at a relatively low price. Win Win! For me, this is one of the best opportunities on the stock market where one is annoyed in retrospect why one did not see it. I will therefore, should the circumstances not change, strike again shortly.
No investment advice
