3D·

Spring cleaning

Edit: Since I was asked to explain my reasons. Then I will edit this bit by bit.

The following are leaving completely (in percentage points of the core portfolio)

$ADBE (+1.66%) (-4%): The AI implementation in their core business is not convincing. Even as a user, I strongly doubt their future competitiveness.

$NESTE (-1.61%) (-6%): A comparatively high level of debt, a more mindful customer base due to loss of wealth and the currency effects. I expect only very small leaps, if any at all.

$KMB (+2.09%) (-4%):

$UNH (-0.86%) (-6%, I would have cleaned up a week ago...): the market is currently too risky for me for political reasons. There has been no improvement in recent months. I am therefore taking the chips off the table.

But they have been expanded:

$AMZN (+0.15%) (+7%): The growth and the margin with the market power of AWS speak for themselves in my opinion.

$PG (+2.49%) (5%): This is a position I hold for emotional reasons. I love baby and toddler products and am regularly delighted that I get diapers, wet wipes, etc. virtually for free. The current course has simply invited.

New arrivals:

$V (+0.03%) (+4%): I currently have a very low weighting in the financial sector. And the profitability, especially the return on equity, speaks for itself. In addition, volatility is comparatively low, which is very flattering for my large tech allocation.

$CARR (+0.95%) (+4%, welcome back): I am convinced that we are still facing major upheavals in building air conditioning. The debate about sustainable heating systems is currently being conducted primarily in affluent societies, not to mention cooling systems.

12 Comments

jdb@Ultimate_Accumulator

Thanks! I just got in in $ADBE. Do you think the integration with their own AI + 3rd party tools will not convince the users. Which alternatives they have? Gemini? I am curious to hear a opinion from an user as I just got into the stock recently.

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DonaldTruck@DonaldTruck

@Ultimate_Accumulator Well, many people put the cloud service in the shade. The AI implementation in the reader manages to filter ChatGPT and I think that sooner or later this will become the standard tool on every operating system. Especially in the media segment for video and images, I think they will make a lot of adjustments. The professional wedding photographer will certainly not switch because he wants to get the last 10% that adobe offers. For the average person who just wants a bit of content, the cheaper competition is able to realize comparable end products much more efficiently in my opinion. As a result, I see a lot of market erosion and considerable competitive pressure.

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Al@agdolp

@DonaldTruck believe the ottonormalotto who does not earn money with it, has rarely really bought the license ...

In the area of professional post-production, I still see the suite as the standard solution (alongside tools that also successfully implement ai processes in their function, such as Resolve) - I can hardly imagine that control over the entire pipeline is being handed over to 'unsafe' and unestablished products - unless for isolated solutions for very specific tasks.

The question is probably whether broad content will be produced in a license-safe, cleanly implemented way, or whether the standards will soon be so low that an established and transparent software solution will become irrelevant. But I don't know the proportion of these customers in the overall customer base ... in any case, the content producers are clearly targeted by Adobe in terms of advertising, so they seem to be interesting.

I produce larger assets for agencies and clients and now occasionally use firefly etc. in the adobe universe for 'real' jobs - so I can confirm that it's fit for purpose.

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Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin

$ADBE will certainly go under at ~40% FCF margin.🤷🏼‍♂️

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DonaldTruck@DonaldTruck

@All-in-or-nothing I didn't say that. I just doubt that they can maintain the volume and/or the margin.

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Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin

@DonaldTruck As a first mover (including special file formats that are not readily compatible with other software), especially in the creative sector, I see a certain stickiness on the part of customers. AI integration is running smoothly; the only risk I currently see is a possible failure to expand the greater monetization of AI tools. The switching costs would be enormous for professional customers. But fortunately, everyone can make their own assessment.😁👍🏻

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DonaldTruck@DonaldTruck

@All-in-or-nothing I completely agree with you about the inertia due to compatibility. Being tied to your own ecosystem through inconvenience is currently also a good support for $AAPL. However, that doesn't mean that I think it's particularly innovative. I'm just very skeptical as to whether it's enough. Call me wild, but I think the same thing about $AAPL, even though I'm sitting at my MacBook right now.

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DonaldTruck@DonaldTruck

@All-in-or-nothing Thanks, by the way, for a very constructive and critical discussion 👍

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Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin

@DonaldTruck I take a more differentiated view of $AAPL. In my opinion, despite the outstanding ecosystem, the topic of AI integration has been completely neglected so far. I have already provided my assessment of the positioning of $ADBE in this area.

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Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin

@DonaldTruck Thank you as well. To be honest, that's the added value of this platform for me. Unobjective discussions are quick and constant, I think it's great that many people here are constructively critical on a factual level.

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Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin

@DonaldTruck oh, edit: of course all comments written on my iPhone.🤷🏼‍♂️😂

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jdb@Ultimate_Accumulator

Could you please add some notes on why you are relocating?

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