Thank you for the introduction my dear, interesting company but at the current price of approx. 27 € the share is fundamentally completely overheated. In my opinion, the valuation is completely absurd with a P/E ratio of around 125. To justify the current price, the free cash flow would have to grow uninterruptedly by 22.4% per year over the next ten years. The slightest delay in US approval or European CE certification of the Heart Assist Transport will lead to a sharp fall in the share price.
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@Aktienhauptmeister but please also consider the forward P/E ratio and the PEG. With triple-digit earnings growth, I would not overestimate the P/E ratio. Also look at the P/E ratio from which the value comes
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@Tenbagger2024 but the forward P/E ratio for 2026 is still just under 100.😅 Nevertheless, the market is pricing in sustained higher 2-digit FCF growth here. Every slightest mistake in the execution hurts right away. Nevertheless, interesting and on my watchlist because I like the niche and the issue with $TMDX 's own aircraft has always bothered me (the figures there have also shown why this is rightly disturbing😅).
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•@Tenbagger2024 Here is my DCF analysis:
DCF analysis (fair value) & valuation level
Assuming a strong but realistic sales growth of 22% p.a. on average for the next 5 years (driven by the US rollout of heart and kidney) and a gradual scaling of the FCF margin towards the targeted 25% by 2030, with a WACC of 9.0%:
Fair value (DCF): approx. SEK 240.00 (approx. EUR 20.56)
Current share price: SEK 293.20 (EUR 25.12)
Upside/downside: approx. -18% overvaluation (downside)
Comparison of multiples: The historical 5-year median P/E ratio is approx. 85x. With a current P/E ratio of over 120x (or 92x forward), the share is ambitiously priced even by its own historical standards. The market is paying for the excellent future in advance.
DCF analysis (fair value) & valuation level
Assuming a strong but realistic sales growth of 22% p.a. on average for the next 5 years (driven by the US rollout of heart and kidney) and a gradual scaling of the FCF margin towards the targeted 25% by 2030, with a WACC of 9.0%:
Fair value (DCF): approx. SEK 240.00 (approx. EUR 20.56)
Current share price: SEK 293.20 (EUR 25.12)
Upside/downside: approx. -18% overvaluation (downside)
Comparison of multiples: The historical 5-year median P/E ratio is approx. 85x. With a current P/E ratio of over 120x (or 92x forward), the share is ambitiously priced even by its own historical standards. The market is paying for the excellent future in advance.
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•@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin good figures at $IMAX?
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•@Tenbagger2024 Maybe. I haven't followed it for a while.🤷🏼♂️ Somehow took 20-30% at the time, but haven't looked at it since.
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