1Wk·

Small Saturday question

Dirty30 · 2025-01-11T12:56:45.042460Z

Nehmen wir mal an, die US Indizes korrigieren wieder mal richtig stark, mindestens so wie 2022 und der weekly RSI kommt mal wieder auf das 50er level zurück. Warum sollte ich ab diesem Zeitpunkt einen normalen Nasdaq $CSNDX besparen, wenn ich zum akkumulieren der Bodenphase auch einen Nasdaq 2x daily $LQQ nehmen kann, um danach von fast doppelter Rendite zu profitieren? Ein langer Zeithorizont wegen einem verlängerten Drawdown (wie zur Dotcom Zeit) ist mit eingerechnet. Auf Grund, dass hier schon eine große Strecke des Drawdowns geschluckt wurde und per DCA monatlich eingesammelt wird, sollte doch hohe Positionsvola nach unten verhindern.

Let's assume that the US indices correct really strongly again, at least like in 2022, and the weekly RSI returns to the 50 level. Why should I invest in a normal Nasdaq from this point onwards $CSNDX (+1.45%) when I can also use a Nasdaq 2x daily to accumulate the bottom phase $LQQ (+2.75%) to accumulate the bottom phase and then benefit from almost double the return? A long time horizon due to an extended drawdown (as in the dotcom era) is included in the calculation. Due to the fact that a large part of the drawdown has already been swallowed and is collected monthly via DCA, high position volatility on the downside should be prevented.

14 Comments

Enrique@Dividenden_Monteur

1Wk

I would do the same, that's exactly what leveraged ETFs are made for

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Dirty30@Dirty30

1Wk

@Der_Dividenden_Monteur What would your approach be, or at what point does this become interesting for you?

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Moritz@leveragegrinding

1Wk

Yep, that's it. But 2 things.

Logically, finding the ground and then selling it properly is a difficult point. Because when does the sale follow?

Above all, however, it is a 2x daily leverage (presumably, these ETFs usually are), which means that the daily performance is doubled every day. You can look up what this leads to, it's like the difference between long derivatives and factor certificates, I should also have explained this in the derivatives post (accessible via my attached post).

I think the idea is quite good, but would probably go for a knockout certificate, which doesn't reset its leverage daily. Perhaps also a call option, which offers even more opportunities in terms of correct timing

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Dirty30@Dirty30

1Wk

@leveragegrinding That's a good point about selling. There is probably no way around profit-taking here if the index is clearly running too hot.

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Moritz@leveragegrinding

1Wk

@Dirty30 look again, I added something at the end

And it certainly works with partial sales, but I would then rather fix the old ath or something else (maybe with fib), otherwise the return suffers a lot and the higher risk is less worthwhile

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Dirty30@Dirty30

1Wk

@leveragegrinding That's right. Maybe just set a level to have clear parameters. I have seen your attachment, but have not yet dealt with certificates. But there's still enough time to read in 😁

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Tino@parlania

1Wk

If you know the floor... why only 2x and not more levers?

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Dirty30@Dirty30

1Wk

@parlania I don't know that one. That's why it should be purely accumulated via DCA.

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Tino@parlania

1Wk

@Dirty30 can also get into 3x... more risk but more return opportunities

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Dirty30@Dirty30

1Wk

@parlania I'll have to take a look 😁

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Tino@parlania

1Wk

@Dirty30 $QQQ3

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Dirty30@Dirty30

1Wk

@parlania I had a look. What I noticed immediately. The 3x with +62% over 1 year has only a slightly higher return than the 2x (+50%). This is probably due to the daily recalculation, as Moritz has already written.

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Chandra@Chandra

1Wk

@Dirty30 This is also due to the fact that there was a slight downturn last year.
Compare the performance of $LQQ and $QQQ3 from the low of the bear market in 2022 until now.

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Dirty30@Dirty30

1Wk

@Chandra I see it. from the bear market to the high it fits.

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