Summary
To some extent—and it is precisely this “to some extent” that makes BASF so exciting. Operations are going better than they have in a long time: In the third quarter of 2026, revenue rose 14% to 16.4 billion EUR, and EBITDA before special items increased 15% to 1.6 billion EUR, and management raised its full-year forecast to between EUR 7.4 and 7.8 billion. At the same time, restructuring efforts at the Ludwigshafen headquarters continue to cost money: EUR 437 million in special items pushed EBIT into negative territory. In the background, the takeover battle for Evonik is unfolding. After Evonik rejected an initial offer of 22.15 EUR per share, BASF is reported by Reuters to have raised its offer to around 24 EUR per share, valuing Evonik at approximately 11.2 billion EUR. CEO Markus Kamieth emphasizes that BASF will only pursue the deal if it makes financial sense for its own shareholders. Analysts are divided: Price targets range from 40 EUR (JPMorgan) to 64 EUR (DZ Bank), with the average at 52.40 EUR. The stock closed at 52.84 EUR on October 28, 2026.
Key Highlights
Q3 2026: Revenue of 16.4 billion EUR (+14%), prices +12%, volumes +2%; EBITDA before special items of 1.6 billion EUR (+15%); all four core businesses posted growth; 2026 forecast raised: EUR 7.4 to 7.8 billion (previously EUR 6.9 to 7.7 billion)Special items of -437 million EUR, primarily restructuring in Ludwigshafen (CoreShift program)Adjusted EPS 0.72 EUR (previous year: 0.52 EUR), Free cash flow: EUR 523 million Evonik: increased bid of around EUR 24 per share according to Reuters, not officially confirmed Deutsche Bank downgrades to “Hold” (target: EUR 53), Bernstein (EUR 61) and DZ Bank (EUR 64) remain positive; Capital Markets Day on November 24, 2026, as the next catalyst for the share price
What are the current key metrics for BASF stock?
MetricValueStatus
Share price (XETRA: BAS)
52.84 EUR
October 28, 2026
52-week high
55.05 EUR
April 14, 2026
52-week low
41.48 EUR
November 5, 2025
Distance from 52-week high
approx. −4%
Oct. 28, 2026
Revenue Q3 2026
16.4 billion EUR (+14% YoY)
Oct. 28, 2026
Q3 EBITDA before special items
1.6 billion EUR (+15% YoY)
October 28, 2026
EBITDA margin before special items
10.0% (same as prior year)
October 28, 2026
EBIT Q3 2026
−98 million EUR (previous year: 232 million EUR)
October 28, 2026
EPS / Adjusted EPS Q3
0.18 EUR / 0.72 EUR
October 28, 2026
Free Cash Flow Q3
523 million EUR (+125 million EUR)
October 28, 2026
2026 EBITDA Before SE Forecast
7.4–7.8 billion EUR (previously 6.9–7.7)
Oct. 28, 2026
Free Cash Flow Forecast for 2026
EUR 1.5–2.3 billion (unchanged)
Oct. 28, 2026
Evonik Offer (Report)
approx. 24 EUR per share, approx. 11.2 billion EUR
End of Oct. 2026
Dividend
at least 2.25 EUR per share
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Dividend Yield
approx. 4.3%
Oct. 28, 2026
Average Analyst Price Target (5 firms)
52.40 EUR
Oct. 26–28, 2026
WKN / ISIN / Ticker
BASF11 / DE000BASF111 / BAS
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Upcoming Dates
Capital Markets Day Nov. 24, 2026, Annual Results Feb. 26, 2027
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What news is currently driving BASF stock?
Date | News | Details | Assessment
Oct. 28, 2026
Q3 beats expectations, forecast raised
Revenue up 14% to 16.4 billion EUR, EBITDA before special items up 15% to 1.6 billion EUR. Full-year forecast raised to EUR 7.4–7.8 billion. Special items of EUR −437 million and an impairment charge at Monomers (EUR 318 million) push EBIT down to EUR −98 million.
Bullish
Oct. 28, 2026
Kamieth on Evonik: only at a reasonable price
BASF will pursue the acquisition only if it is financially beneficial for its own shareholders.
Neutral
October 28, 2026
Analysts Divided on Earnings
Bernstein (Outperform, 61 EUR) and DZ Bank (Buy, 64 EUR) remain positive, while Jefferies (Hold, 44 EUR) and JPMorgan (Underweight, 40 EUR) are skeptical.
Mixed
October 26, 2026
Deutsche Bank downgrades
Rated downgraded from Buy to Hold; price target lowered from 60 to 53 EUR—reason: uncertainty surrounding the Evonik acquisition.
Bearish
End of Oct. 2026
Evonik offer raised to around 24 EUR (Reuters)
Valuation of approximately 11.2 billion EUR, not officially confirmed. Kamieth promises Evonik employees that there will be no layoffs for operational reasons until 2032.
Decisive
September 29, 2026
Evonik rejects initial offer
22.15 EUR per share (approx. 10.3 billion EUR) deemed too low, according to the Financial Times.
Neutral
September 25, 2026
Exploratory talks confirmed
BASF confirms talks with Evonik and the RAG Foundation (which holds approximately 44% of Evonik).
Neutral
What does BASF do—and how exactly does the company make money?
Company Profile
BASF BASF SE (ISIN: DE000BASF111, WKN: BASF11), headquartered in Ludwigshafen am Rhein, is the world’s largest chemical company. The company organizes its business into eleven business units, which are grouped into six segments—divided into core businesses and standalone businesses.
The four core businesses—and how BASF actually makes money:
Chemicals: Petrochemicals and Intermediates — form the heart of the BASF Verbund. It generates revenue through the sale of basic chemicals and intermediates to both external customers and its own segments. Materials: Performance Materials and Monomers — one of the world’s leading suppliers of high-performance plastics. Generates revenue through engineering plastics, polyurethanes, and specialty plastics for the automotive and construction industries. Industrial Solutions: Dispersions & Resins and Performance Chemicals—develops ingredients and additives for industrial applications such as polymer dispersions, resins, and electronic materials. Nutrition & Care: Care Chemicals and Nutrition & Health—generates revenue from ingredients for personal care, food, and pharmaceutical products
The real sticking point, however, lies not in the segment structure but in the headquarters itself: Ludwigshafen has been struggling for years with high energy costs and overcapacity, and has most recently posted losses for four consecutive years. It is precisely against this backdrop that the potential acquisition of Evonik takes on special significance—a deal that could create economies of scale and market power, while the core location is simultaneously shrinking. Similar to the RENK Aktie, where a targeted acquisition was intended to open up new market access, BASF is focused on strategic repositioning—only under significantly more challenging structural conditions.
Fundamental Analysis: How Deep Is BASF’s Crisis, Really?
Fundamental Analysis of BASF Stock 2026
Significantly less deeply than the headlines about Ludwigshafen suggest—the third quarter of 2026 shows a company that has regained pricing power in its operations.
Earnings Quality in the Third Quarter: Revenue rose by 14% to EUR 16.4 billion, driven primarily by higher prices (+12%) and slightly higher volumes (+2%). EBITDA before special items climbed 15% to EUR 1.6 billion, while the margin remained at the prior-year level of 10.0%. The bottom line, however, is less impressive: Extraordinary items of −437 million EUR—primarily related to restructuring in Ludwigshafen and a legal settlement at Care Chemicals—as well as an impairment charge of 318 million EUR at Monomers pushed EBIT down to −98 million EUR. Adjusted earnings per share nevertheless rose from 0.52 to 0.72 EUR. Running in parallel is the CoreShift program, through which BASF aims to reduce fixed costs in its core business by up to 20% by 2029—the restructuring costs in Ludwigshafen are the price of this transformation, the benefits of which are expected to show up in margins only in the coming years.
Segments—who’s driving growth, who’s holding it back: Chemicals, Nutrition & Care, Materials, and Industrial Solutions all posted significant earnings growth. Agricultural Solutions and Surface Technologies, on the other hand, fell short of the previous year’s results; in the agricultural business, both volumes and prices declined. A separate presentation by Agricultural Solutions is specifically scheduled for Capital Markets Day on November 24, 2026—a segment that needs to provide answers right now.
Forecast and the underestimated final quarter: BASF now expects EBITDA before special items of EUR 7.4 to 7.8 billion for 2026. After nine months, approximately 6.4 billion EUR has already been recorded—leaving only 1.0 to 1.4 billion EUR for the fourth quarter. This is precisely why the stock failed to take off despite the upward revision to the forecast: Bernstein spoke of an outlook that prices in a disappointing final quarter. Readers are already familiar with a similar pattern of strong group performance and difficult location issues from the Bayer Aktie —there, too, the market has long waited for proof rather than promises.
Cash Flow and Balance Sheet Flexibility for Evonik: Operating cash flow fell by EUR 275 million to EUR 1.1 billion in the quarter because higher raw material prices tied up EUR 507 million in inventory. Free cash flow nevertheless rose to EUR 523 million—thanks in part to EUR 434 million from the sale of shares in Harbour Energy and significantly lower investments in Zhanjiang. The FCF forecast of EUR 1.5 to 2.3 billion remains confirmed, as does the dividend of at least EUR 2.25 per share. An acquisition of Evonik for approximately EUR 11 billion would amount to just under a quarter of its market capitalization and would therefore be financially feasible, but it would not be a minor deal.
Conclusion of the fundamental analysis: Operationally, BASF is clearly better positioned than it was a year ago—prices, earnings, and the outlook are all trending upward. The weak points lie in the one-time charges from the restructuring in Ludwigshafen, the flagging agricultural business, and the open question of how much BASF will ultimately pay for Evonik.
BASF Stock Price Targets and Forecast for 2026
How is the BASF stock price performing?
Analysts see an average price target of 52.40 EUR for BASF stock—leaving virtually no upside potential from the closing price of 52.84 EUR on October 28, 2026, with an extreme range of 40 to 64 EUR. Although the stock rose by 1.4% following the forecast upgrade on October 28, it remains in the consolidation phase that has been ongoing since the April 14 high of 55.05 EUR. The lower boundary of recent weeks, around 49 EUR, held in early October; since then, the stock has worked its way back above 52 EUR. Anyone looking for the pattern of Lufthansa Aktie will find it here again: strong numbers, but the market wants to see a breakout before it revalues the stock.
Key price levels:
52-week high: 55.05 EUR (April 14, 2026)Current price: 52.84 EUR (Xetra close on Oct. 28, 2026)First resistance level: 53.67 EUR (closing price on Sept. 8, 2026)Second resistance level: 58.20 EUR Critical support level: 48 EUR
Analyst price targets:
Average price target: 52.40 EUR (5 firms, Oct. 26–28, 2026) DZ Bank: 64 EUR (Buy, Oct. 28, 2026) Bernstein: 61 EUR (Outperform, Oct. 28, 2026) Deutsche Bank: 53 EUR (Hold, previously Buy/60 EUR, Oct. 26, 2026) Jefferies: 44 EUR (Hold, Oct. 28, 2026) JPMorgan: 40 EUR (Underweight, Oct. 28, 2026)
Chart Analysis:
The chemical giant’s stock has been trading sideways for years. It is clear that a strong trading range has formed between 37.50 and 54 EUR. Within this range, I rate the stock as neutral. Should the price fall below 48 EUR, sellers would once again have a slight advantage in pushing the stock price toward 37.50 EUR. If this level were to be breached amid strong selling pressure, a further medium-term decline to 28.50 EUR would not be unlikely.
If, on the other hand, the price breaks above 54 EUR, further buying interest is likely to emerge very quickly in the range from 58.20 EUR to approximately 71 EUR.
BASF Stock (BAS) Chart Analysis and Price Targets for 2026 (as of Oct. 29, 2026) – Source: Stock3 / Christian Lill
Conclusion: Can a takeover still save the BASF Group?
My Assessment: Hold / Wait for a Breakout
The honest answer after the third quarter: BASF doesn’t need a rescue; BASF is delivering. Prices, earnings, and forecasts are trending upward; while the restructuring in Ludwigshafen continues to cost money, it is being consistently carried out. The Evonik takeover is therefore not a necessity, but an option—and Kamieth makes it unmistakably clear that he will only go through with it at a reasonable price. It is precisely this discipline that is the best news for shareholders in this whole takeover saga.
The problem lies elsewhere: The raised forecast leaves little room for maneuver in the fourth quarter, and analysts are more divided than ever. Those who believe in the operational turnaround will find a solid foundation at 52 to 53 EUR, with a dividend yield of around 4.3%. Those who want to play it safe should wait for the Capital Markets Day on November 24 and a closing price above 54 EUR. A similar tension between strong numbers and cautious analysts was recently also experienced by Deutsche Bank Aktie.
✅ Opportunities
⚠️ Risks
- Q3 results beat expectations; forecast raised to EUR 7.4–7.8 billion
- Pricing power: +12% prices in the third quarter
- All four core businesses increased their earnings
- Free cash flow rises; dividend of at least EUR 2.25 confirmed
- Capital Markets Day on November 24, 2026, as a catalyst
- Kamieth signals pricing discipline at Evonik
- Forecast implies a weak fourth quarter
- Additional one-time charges from the Ludwigshafen restructuring (−437 million EUR in Q3)
- Agricultural Solutions sees decline in volume and prices
- Evonik deal could become more expensive; outcome uncertain
- Analysts Divided: Price Targets Range from 40 to 64 EUR
- Deutsche Bank downgrades rating due to uncertainty surrounding Evonik
FAQ: Frequently Asked Questions About BASF Stock
Is BASF Stock a Buy in 2026?
That depends on the type of investor: From an operational standpoint, BASF is impressing with a 15% increase in EBITDA before special items in the third quarter and an upwardly revised forecast of EUR 7.4 to 7.8 billion. However, analysts are divided—DZ Bank (64 EUR) and Bernstein (61 EUR) are positive, while JPMorgan (40 EUR) recommends underweight.
Why didn’t BASF stock rise more sharply after the earnings report?
Despite strong Q3 results, the stock rose by only 1.4% to EUR 52.84 on October 28, 2026. With approximately EUR 6.4 billion in EBITDA before special items over nine months, the full-year forecast leaves only EUR 1.0 to 1.4 billion for the fourth quarter; furthermore, uncertainty surrounding Evonik is weighing on the stock.
What is the price target for BASF stock?
The average price target from five major research firms is EUR 52.40. The range extends from EUR 40 (JPMorgan) to EUR 44 (Jefferies), EUR 53 (Deutsche Bank), EUR 61 (Bernstein), and EUR 64 (DZ Bank).
What is the forecast for BASF stock in 2026?
BASF itself expects EBITDA before special items of 7.4 to 7.8 billion EUR and free cash flow of 1.5 to 2.3 billion EUR for 2026. From a technical analysis perspective, a closing price above 54 EUR would signal a continued move toward 71 EUR; conversely, a price below 46 EUR could trigger a decline toward 37.50 EUR.
When will BASF release its next earnings report?
BASF will publish its financial results for fiscal year 2026 on February 26, 2027. Prior to that, the Capital Markets Day will take place in Ludwigshafen on November 24, 2026, including a separate presentation by Agricultural Solutions.
How much is BASF’s dividend?
BASF has committed to a dividend of at least 2.25 EUR per share per year. At a share price of 52.84 EUR, this corresponds to a dividend yield of approximately 4.3%.
How does BASF make money?
BASF generates revenue through four core businesses—Chemicals, Materials, Industrial Solutions, and Nutrition & Care—and two independent businesses, Surface Technologies and Agricultural Solutions. In the third quarter of 2026, the Group generated EUR 16.4 billion in revenue from these operations.
Will BASF acquire Evonik?
That remains to be seen. According to Reuters reports, BASF has raised its non-binding offer to around 24 EUR per Evonik share, which amounts to approximately 11.2 billion EUR. This has not been confirmed, and CEO Kamieth intends to pursue the deal only if it makes financial sense for BASF shareholders.
How do you assess the potential acquisition of $EVK (+1.57%) as $BAS (+1.92%) as a wise decision on the part of management?
