Explosive developments on the markets! Shortly before the end of the Ultimatum (48h), in which Trump threatened Iran with attacks on the power plants, he made a friendly statement about Twitter and announced that there had been negotiations with Iran over the weekend, which were probably very productive and offered real added value.
In Palm Beach, Trump said that Witkoff and Kushner held talks Sunday night with a "top person" in Iran. He said there was extensive agreement on both sides, such as stopping uranium enrichment and withdrawing already enriched uranium. Axios said that Witkoff and Kushner had negotiated indirectly with Iran's parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. A direct meeting was requested, but to no avail. Ghalibaf is a former IRGC general and a close confidant of Mojtaba Khamenei. The talks probably took place via Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey.
However, Iran denies this. Ghalibaf wrote on Twitter:
"No negotiations have been held with the US, and fakenews is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped."
Israel was informed via indirect communication, but was surprised by Trump's statements on progress.
Regarding the 48h deadline Trump set, there was pressure from the Gulf states due to the Iranian threat. Iran's threat referred to the legitimization of power plants, oil terminals and desalination plants as targets if the US were to attack Iranian power plants. An unverified reason, but more plausible to me, would be that the Gulf states have probably exerted pressure on their own. The keyword here is desalination plants, where there is a high level of dependency in order to "produce" drinking water. So far, isolated attacks have been reported in the course of the war, but without proportionate damage.
- Qatar: 99%
- Bahrain: >90%
- Kuwait: 90%
- Oman: 86%
- Saudi Arabia: 70%
- UAE: 42%
In general, Trump is panicking, the minesweepers still need a few days to arrive at their destination and the marines for a potential capture of Kharg Island are also still on their way and are not expected until Friday at the earliest. In the meantime, Iran has already laid several mines in the sea, CBS reports today. Trump is currently still looking for an exit from the war, and the coalition of the willing is not prepared to bail Trump out, given the circumstances. Securing the Strait of Hormuz is still uncertain, as there are no concrete plans on the political side.
The only real "exit strategy" would be to take the island Chargas this is where 95% of Iran's oil exports come from. Iran earned around USD 53 billion from oil exports in 2025, which is around 11% of GDP. The military takes physical possession of most of the barrels and sells them directly, mainly to China. A seizure would be strategic leverage on Trump's part, but is associated with high losses. Iran could be forced to negotiate, or it would lash out even more violently. Special units and equipment would be needed for a seizure, which, as previously mentioned, are on the way. The 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit is on its way with the USS Boxer and two other ships are on their way to the Persian Gulf. But it will be a while before they get there.
We should therefore remain vigilant and not be lulled into a false sense of security by the current price jumps. The Strait of Hormuz is still not secure and is now also mined. $IOIL00 (-1.8%) The crash is driven by Trump's statements and not by the truth.
