I have just entered a few scenarios in ChatGpT and have compared a long-term investment in $ALV (-0.23%) with an investment in $BTC (+0.59%) compared. I find it amazing that a defensive stock like the $ALV (-0.23%) does not have a much worse return than a very risky investment in $BTC (+0.59%) .
Here is the prompt:
Compare an investment in Allianz shares with a current price of €364 and a dividend yield of 4.2% with an investment in Bitcoin at a current purchase price of €100,000. Calculate the annual return (CAGR) over a period of 20 years, assuming that the Allianz share price rises by an average of 3% per year and the dividend is increased by 7% each year. The dividend is to be reinvested annually. In this scenario, the price of Bitcoin is € 1,000,000 in 20 years.
Answer (shortened):
Under these assumptions, the annual return (CAGR) for Allianz would be approx. 10.2% and for Bitcoin approx. 12.2% - Bitcoin would therefore have the long-term return advantage, while Allianz would have the steady cash flow.
