Hello Tenbagger,
you've really dug deep into the (Tupperware) can! 😉
At first glance, the story about Betterware de Mexico (BWMX) and the takeover of Tupperware's Latin American business sounds like a feast for bargain hunters. But before we set off the confetti cannon here, we need to correct your homework. You seem to have had your rose-colored glasses on when reading the figures.
Let's put your wild theses through the tough quality check (as of March 2026):
1. "Debt-free"? Uh, no.
That's the biggest goat in your post. BWMX is anything but debt-free. If you look at the current balance sheet, there are around 4 billion Mexican pesos (over USD 200 million) in liabilities laughing at you. This results in a debt-to-equity ratio (debt-equity ratio) of around 300%! The management is working hard to reduce debt, but to speak of "debt-free" is simply wrong. How do you think they manage takeovers like Jafra and Tupperware? With leftover plastic bowls? 😅
2. "Double-digit sales growth"? Probably rather homeopathic.
A look at the fresh Q4 figures for 2025 shows: Sales growth for the year as a whole was pretty much exactly 1.16%. The management's official guidance for 2026 also assumes growth of just 4 to 8%. There is no trace of "double-digit" growth here.
Let's pour that into our strict quality formulas:
* Core Quality Formula (qualitative growth):
Sales growth (approx. 1.2%) + Operating margin (EBITDA margin approx. 19-21%) = Score: ~21 to 22.
Verdict: This is absolutely solid (between 15 and 25), but not the outstanding growth miracle (> 25) that you are trying to sell it as here.
* Cash flow quality & dividend filter:
The P/E ratio is actually at a visually favorable 10 to 11, and the dividend yield of around 7 to 8% is a dream at first glance. But: BWMX currently pays out over 80% of its profits (high payout ratio). When you are sitting on a considerable mountain of debt and have to integrate a new acquisition (Tupperware LatAm) at the same time, such a payout is often on the edge of your seat. If consumption in Mexico stutters, this dividend is quickly no longer securely covered by free cash flow.
Conclusion according to our exclusion criteria:
The story is cool, no question. Direct-to-consumer with strong brands in Latin America has potential, and they are now reasonably converting profits back into cash. But your due diligence was a bit "creative". As long as growth doesn't really explode into double digits and the balance sheet is so heavily leveraged by acquisitions, it remains an exciting but risky turnaround story for the watchlist - and not a blind buy.
Next time, please take a closer look at the balance sheet before inviting us to the Tupperware party! 🍻
you've really dug deep into the (Tupperware) can! 😉
At first glance, the story about Betterware de Mexico (BWMX) and the takeover of Tupperware's Latin American business sounds like a feast for bargain hunters. But before we set off the confetti cannon here, we need to correct your homework. You seem to have had your rose-colored glasses on when reading the figures.
Let's put your wild theses through the tough quality check (as of March 2026):
1. "Debt-free"? Uh, no.
That's the biggest goat in your post. BWMX is anything but debt-free. If you look at the current balance sheet, there are around 4 billion Mexican pesos (over USD 200 million) in liabilities laughing at you. This results in a debt-to-equity ratio (debt-equity ratio) of around 300%! The management is working hard to reduce debt, but to speak of "debt-free" is simply wrong. How do you think they manage takeovers like Jafra and Tupperware? With leftover plastic bowls? 😅
2. "Double-digit sales growth"? Probably rather homeopathic.
A look at the fresh Q4 figures for 2025 shows: Sales growth for the year as a whole was pretty much exactly 1.16%. The management's official guidance for 2026 also assumes growth of just 4 to 8%. There is no trace of "double-digit" growth here.
Let's pour that into our strict quality formulas:
* Core Quality Formula (qualitative growth):
Sales growth (approx. 1.2%) + Operating margin (EBITDA margin approx. 19-21%) = Score: ~21 to 22.
Verdict: This is absolutely solid (between 15 and 25), but not the outstanding growth miracle (> 25) that you are trying to sell it as here.
* Cash flow quality & dividend filter:
The P/E ratio is actually at a visually favorable 10 to 11, and the dividend yield of around 7 to 8% is a dream at first glance. But: BWMX currently pays out over 80% of its profits (high payout ratio). When you are sitting on a considerable mountain of debt and have to integrate a new acquisition (Tupperware LatAm) at the same time, such a payout is often on the edge of your seat. If consumption in Mexico stutters, this dividend is quickly no longer securely covered by free cash flow.
Conclusion according to our exclusion criteria:
The story is cool, no question. Direct-to-consumer with strong brands in Latin America has potential, and they are now reasonably converting profits back into cash. But your due diligence was a bit "creative". As long as growth doesn't really explode into double digits and the balance sheet is so heavily leveraged by acquisitions, it remains an exciting but risky turnaround story for the watchlist - and not a blind buy.
Next time, please take a closer look at the balance sheet before inviting us to the Tupperware party! 🍻
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@Raketentoni Thank you, Mr. Prompt. I should really start complaining to Marketsceener. But luckily I have you, my dear Prompt
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•@Tenbagger2024 yes sorry he is a bit cheeky again today 😬
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•@Raketentoni I did a special search in Mexico for Prompt
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•@Tenbagger2024 I'll introduce an Italian tomorrow Mr. Prompt was on vacation 😂
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•@Raketentoni I am very pleased about that. I am invested in Italy at $LTMC. What does Mr. Prompt think?
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@Raketentoni also introduces you as a Nordic share $MTRS
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@Tenbagger2024 I can make a note of it ⚠️
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@Raketentoni I had also thrown something into the room in another post today 😉 Take a look at $ITRN. I found it quite interesting.
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@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin I've already made a note of it. Tomorrow it's Italy first and then we'll continue 😬
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•@Tenbagger2024 I have of course already decided to grow them. The growth is actually rather manageable. The payout ratio is already quite high.
My direct comparison (as my previous replacement player for the portfolio from Mexico) was against $FEMSAUB (which I find more interesting than the pure cola bottling business), so of course they didn't do too badly in terms of growth.
I like the profile overall. The risk is that you tend to be in the lower middle class in terms of products, where you can save more quickly in case of doubt and also in the household goods sector. Femsa is a force to be reckoned with, they are represented everywhere in Mexico with their OXXO kiosks.
Definitely on the watch list as a possible replacement candidate for the portfolio. Thank you dear.🙏🏻
and @Raketentoni and Mr. Prompt: with a P/E ratio of around 10, they are still slightly undervalued at the upper end of the sales growth range. And net debt/EBITDA is 1.5, which I think is still within reason, honestly.🤷🏼♂️
My direct comparison (as my previous replacement player for the portfolio from Mexico) was against $FEMSAUB (which I find more interesting than the pure cola bottling business), so of course they didn't do too badly in terms of growth.
I like the profile overall. The risk is that you tend to be in the lower middle class in terms of products, where you can save more quickly in case of doubt and also in the household goods sector. Femsa is a force to be reckoned with, they are represented everywhere in Mexico with their OXXO kiosks.
Definitely on the watch list as a possible replacement candidate for the portfolio. Thank you dear.🙏🏻
and @Raketentoni and Mr. Prompt: with a P/E ratio of around 10, they are still slightly undervalued at the upper end of the sales growth range. And net debt/EBITDA is 1.5, which I think is still within reason, honestly.🤷🏼♂️
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