ATTENTION LONG POST!
(my last long post was criticized for being surprisingly long)
But before I start explaining what's behind the title, I wanted to say three things:
1. i cracked the 100 subscription mark last week, i want to celebrate that now with a quality offensive and thank you guys, be prepared for some posts with some research (but will be spread out in time)
2. props to the one who brought me to exactly this topic: Moritz aka Leveragegrinding,
the post that referred to an article was unfortunately deleted
3. in the entire post I speak exclusively of Porsche Ag, unless I write Se behind it (Porsche Ag=Porsche production + research/ Porsche Se = holding company holds VW and other smaller companies) for voting I use the se, because ag does not exist on the market
๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐๐ธ๐๐๐ฟ:
๐ญ. ๐ญ๐๐ธ๐๐ป๐ณ๐ ๐ฒ ๐๐๐๐ผ: ๐๐๐ฒ๐ถ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ด๐ฒ
๐ฎ. ๐ช๐ฒ๐น๐ฐ๐ต๐ฒ๐ ๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฏ๐น๐ฒ๐บ ๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ด ๐ฎ, ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ฃ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ฐ๐ต๐ฒ ๐นรถ๐๐?
๐ฏ. ๐ช๐ฎ๐ฟ๐๐บ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ด ๐ญ ๐ฎ๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐ด๐๐ ๐ณรผ๐ฟ ๐ฃ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ฐ๐ต๐ฒ ๐ถ๐๐
๐ฐ. ๐ช๐ฎ๐ฟ๐๐บ ๐ฃ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ฐ๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ถ๐ฐ๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐ง๐ฒ๐๐น๐ฎ ๐ถ๐๐, ๐ถ๐ป ๐บ๐ฒ๐ต๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ป ๐ช๐ฒ๐ถ๐๐ฒ๐ป
๐ฑ. ๐ช๐ฎ๐ฟ๐๐บ ๐ง๐ฒ๐๐น๐ฎ ๐ฎ๐บ ๐ฎ๐๐ณ๐ต๐ผ๐น๐ฒ๐ป ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐ป๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐๐๐ฒ ๐ต๐ฎ๐
๐ฒ. ๐ฃ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐รถ๐ป๐น๐ถ๐ฐ๐ต๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐
๐ญ. ๐ญ๐๐ธ๐๐ป๐ณ๐ ๐ฒ ๐๐๐๐ผ
To break it down very simply: we need a change from the current combustion engine to a climate-neutral way of getting around, firstly, we can already see that this probably won't work with public transport alone, we simply like driving individually too much, secondly, car manufacturers worldwide, whether in China, the USA or Germany, have a damn strong lobby (in China as far as possible, but China is also dependent on cars). Now there are currently two paths that can be taken: we convert everything to electric cars, as many Tesla enthusiasts are longing to do; it should be clear that this is not the best way in all cases, especially in extreme situations such as the Alps in winter or Dubai in general, but we are talking about the broad market.
The second way is a little less drastic, it's about efuels... The system has some advantages but also a huge disadvantage: We would already have many filling stations for efuels that would not have to be converted (they are already mixed into normal fuel), for consumers an efuel car is significantly less investment-intensive than an e car, we would destroy the planet significantly less due to the reduced lithium consumption, high-performance engines for le Mans(or for example tractors(for towing tanks)) are possible, you can simply fill up and don't have to wait for charging and it is easier to transport than electricity. But as already mentioned, efuels have one major disadvantage: an e-car currently consumes significantly less energy for the same distance (with similar effort). But as the attentive reader will already have noticed, I'm talking about the current situation, which is where Porsche comes in:
๐ฎ. ๐ช๐ฒ๐น๐ฐ๐ต๐ฒ๐ ๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฏ๐น๐ฒ๐บ ๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ด ๐ฎ, ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ฃ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ฐ๐ต๐ฒ ๐นรถ๐๐?
So far, efuels are not really represented, they can only be produced with green electricity if they are to be climate-neutral, but that is not really different from the e-car. Siemens and Porsche are currently building a pilot plant in Chile, supported by the German government, by the way. But why Chile? Chile simply has a lot of wind energy. Why the immediate switch to efuels is not working: the production of efuels is currently very low; by 2024, production is expected to amount to 1.2% of fuel consumption in 2019 (in Germany). But why should the "Hutzelbude" (as my father affectionately calls it) from Zuffenhausen, which is very small compared to other car manufacturers, benefit so exponentially from this market: if efuels work, they are already so far, like Tesla when e-cars became a trend, there is a pioneering role, only here the entry level is higher... much much higher. But it will take some time before we normal consumers see anything from efuels, Porsche wants to use the efuels primarily for the Porsche expirience (flashbacks to a competition๐ greetings to @GoDividend ). But why it doesn't really matter whether we switch to efuels for private cars (at least for Porsche's sales) is discussed next.
๐ฏ. ๐ช๐ฎ๐ฟ๐๐บ ๐ช๐ฒ๐ด ๐ญ ๐ฎ๐๐ฐ๐ต ๐ด๐๐ ๐ณรผ๐ฟ ๐ฃ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ฐ๐ต๐ฒ ๐ถ๐๐
Now we finally come to the point I came across because of Moritz: why Porsche also benefits if there are only e cars, even if Tesla as an example (whether you think this is realistic is up to you, but I don't think so) has a market share of 23.2% (because I have seen several Apple comparisons times the market share of q4 2021). Why Porsche will continue to have a market share comes later. The article that Moritz linked was about the fact that if we were to replace 10 million cars in Germany with electric cars, we would not be able to drive in a climate-neutral way. But why the whole thing now: if we were to switch to 10 million electric vehicles, we would totally overload a grid that consists only of renewables. We would have to fall back on nuclear power, gas or coal to provide the electricity we need, especially at night, because we simply don't have the storage options for a fluctuating amount of electricity (wind and solar). Porsche is now coming up with two solutions: on the one hand, electricity can be used to produce efuel, which is also comparatively easy to store. That's why it doesn't really matter whether efuels are used for private cars, they are needed either way (anyone who wants to can find out about the other possible uses of efuels). On the other hand, Porsche is coming up with the possibility of using the car as a mobile power bank, so to speak (i.e. being able to discharge it again). At least in terms of research, Porsche is the market leader here. The Taycan, together with its brother Audi etron, was also the first to introduce 800-volt technology to the wider market; if we have to fall back on the "mobile power bank", we need ways to quickly discharge a lot of electricity, otherwise we will quickly have a blackout. Porsche has its own battery production as an advantage over VW, for example. Porsche is also planning to switch to 80% electric cars by 2030.
๐ฐ. ๐ช๐ฎ๐ฟ๐๐บ ๐ฃ๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐ฐ๐ต๐ฒ ๐๐ถ๐ฐ๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐๐ผ๐ฟ ๐ง๐ฒ๐๐น๐ฎ ๐ถ๐๐
When I talk about security here, it can be interpreted in several ways: what Musk is currently doing with Twitter could be perceived as a threat, and Porsche's retention of market share could also be seen as a threat.
First, the impossible takeover:
Porsche cannot be taken over by Musk just like that:
Porsche itself is currently owned by Volkswagen, and 75% will remain in VW hands even if it goes public. VW only has a free float of 42%, anchor investors such as the state of Lower Saxony, etc. However, the majority of the ordinary shares are held by Porsche SE, which does have ordinary shares, but these are all in the hands of the Porsche/Piech families. A hostile takeover is therefore impossible.
So Musk can't simply buy Porsche and flatten it.
But why Porsche also has certain market shares:
Anyone who buys a Rolex buys it at a HIGHER price than just the quality represents. This also has little to do with production costs. Anyone who buys a Rolex wants a certain image, a certain brand, simply a certain promise. It's similar with Porsche: there may be some who want to have the fastest electric car, whether it's a Tesla or not, but Porsche is not just about speed: Porsche has a certain kind of luxury, Tesla is more of a standard car in comparison. Porsche is associated with having achieved something, you buy quality according to the image, you buy a driving experience, some would even describe it as a way of life to drive a Porsche. Anyone who wants to drive a Porsche is not only tempted by the manufacturer's specifications (another post on this will follow in the coming weeks) (which, by the way, are sometimes very difficult to compare, especially when it comes to Tesla vs Porsche). Porsche simply has certain customers that Tesla cannot reach. (same with Ferrari, by the way). Porsche should therefore not lack customers in the long term, as long as we don't have a long economic crisis.
What makes Porsche special compared to all other car manufacturers when you look at individual company figures is its profitability: they are the most profitable car manufacturer in the world, ahead of Tesla, ahead of Ferrari, ahead of everyone. This should also help against inflation. The profit margin is sometimes up to 50% per car delivered.
๐ฑ. ๐ช๐ฎ๐ฟ๐๐บ ๐ง๐ฒ๐๐น๐ฎ ๐ฎ๐บ ๐ฎ๐๐ณ๐ต๐ผ๐น๐ฒ๐ป ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐ป๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐๐๐ฒ ๐ต๐ฎ๐
Elon Musk is strictly adhering to the vision of electric cars and has been resisting statements that efuels or hydrogen are alternatives for years, so a change of course is not really to be expected in this area.
However, it is not entirely clear why Tesla is abandoning the charging option for Teslas, but since an announcement in 2019, there has only been unofficial news about this field, and not exactly positive news:
According to an internal, it is no longer planned to use the Tesla as a mobile storage unit. And if it were still planned, Musk would have announced this a long time ago, Elon Musk is not exactly known for skipping announcements/promises (regardless of whether he can keep them or not).
๐ฒ. ๐ฃ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐รถ๐ป๐น๐ถ๐ฐ๐ต๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐:
The Porsche IPO will not only be exciting for me as a Zuffenhausen resident, the stock will also be a safe bet based on valuation... I will look at the valuation at the IPO and get in depending on the price, but in the long term the Porsche Ag position should become one of the larger individual stocks in my portfolio. (no investment advice)
I know the topic of Tesla is a very controversial one, but I still ask for a civilized discussion of the topic in the comments.
in the sources I use the Autobild and Wikipedia, briefly what:
-I took the Autobild article (picture ๐คฎ) because it presents the situation very well without any deeper reading, which is why I found it ok as a source for easy reference
- I have included Wikipedia because it has a very good graphic showing what is currently economically feasible with efuels I apologize for these unscientific sources
As there is more to an offensive than just one post, look forward to more exciting topics in the coming weeks,
The following topics are currently being planned:
- Newstrading (2-part)
- Project Underpants Speculator
- Market timing... Why it can't actually work, and yet sometimes it does
- Why I don't like Elon Musk and still think he's a genius
- Roast me
(no guarantee of actual implementation)
Now two small things to conclude:
-You are also welcome to visit @leveragegrinding as already mentioned, a post of his served as inspiration
-thanks for reading ๐
๐๐ฎ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐๐ง:
https://www.autobild.de/artikel/e-fuels-von-porsche-und-siemens-plaene-klimaneutral-18619257.html
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/E-Fuel
https://www.autobild.de/artikel/efuels-zukunft-preis-tanken-nachteile-oeko-sprit-20574151.html
https://www.computerwoche.de/a/apple-mit-groesstem-smartphone-marktanteil,3552275
https://www.deraktionaer.de/aktien/kurse/volkswagenst-DE0007664005.html
https://www.merkur.de/wirtschaft/tesla-gewinn-fahrzeug-vw-audi-bmw-mercedes-porsche-zr-91287418.html
@Lorena this is the discussed post
@meta
@Tobirama
@derlieblingsbanker
@Dreamliner
@DiFigiANo
@deepmind
@VP
