3Mon·

Having Charlie Munger in your profile picture doesn't mean you're as successful as him.


A look at the end of my portfolio shows the weaknesses and mistakes that were made.


You might say Fallen Angel.


LVMH $MC (+1.96%)

Bought on 30.05.2023 after bad news and a fall in the share price.

In the back of my mind sayings like

"Luxury always works" and "LVMH is a long runner"

Suddenly, every influencer at the time had

had the share on their buy list and so on

28.09.2023 was bought again.

However, there was no shortage of bad news, the share disappointed and an exit was missed.


Tokyo Electron $8035 (+0.92%)

Due to US sanctions against China, there were considerations that China would obtain high technology from Japan.

And due to the AI hype, on 8.02.2024

Tokyo Electron and Advantest $6857 (+3.88%) were bought at a high P/E ratio.

Nevertheless, Tokyo Electron was quickly up over 30% and the joy was great. And a stop loss was not set either.

And so it was that an interest rate hike in Japan caused the stock market to crash. And of course the first to be hit were the overvalued hype stocks.

Incidentally, Advantest is already well up again after good figures and I am optimistic about Tokyo and fortunately the position is only very small.


ASML $ASML (+1.71%)

History repeats itself. Here, too, we bought after the market correction on 31.07.2024.

Again it was influencers "ASML has a monopoly"

and it won't get any cheaper.

But things turned out differently. The last quarterly figures proved me wrong.

This now raises the question for me

BUY UP ?

or will it be an LVMH story?


My dears,

Of course I am aware that in the long term I will be smiling about this in a few years' time.

And a diversified portfolio keeps such things in check.

But as a clever investor, I could have invested LVMH's money better over a year.


Please tell me your opinion on this, do you set stop losses and where do you set them?

What strategy do you use?

When do you buy?

etc.

You are the best community, and I would especially like to mention that the tone has changed for the better in the last few weeks.


Thank you my dears 😘🌹

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58 Comments

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Will be back, just be patient ☺️ also wanted to get into $MC, I usually wait too long and then the price runs away again. Unfortunately, we don't all have a crystal ball 🔮. If you are convinced of the companies in the long term, then invest.
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@BamBamInvest
As a consolation, I received a €65 dividend from LVMH.
You're really great, my dear.
What's that boy with a cigar?
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@Tenbagger2024 that's supposed to be BamBam Geröllheimer in a suit with a cigar (Flinstones) 😁 if that tells you anything.
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@BamBamInvest
Oh unfortunately not, I might have to look into that.
Thank you for this information 🌹
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@Tenbagger2024 Do you know Fred Flintstone? The original series was set in 1960 ☺️ One of the most successful animated series set in the Stone Age . ☺️
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@Tenbagger2024 You don't have to thank me for that 🙏😊
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I would simply continue to buy LVMH and ASML. For me, they are among the few really good European companies on the stock market. Sure, it's always annoying if you've bought unfavorably, but in the long term it's not that relevant.
Otherwise, it might be better to use a savings plan in future.
In my experience, it can really make sense psychologically. It makes a huge difference whether you are 10% in the red with a €100 investment or €10k.
It's better to be annoyed if it rises too quickly than to be frustrated because you're always in the red.
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@Banana_Millionaire
A great investor once said that a share has to fall after it has been bought in order to be successful.
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I think your problem is that you are looking for entries when the trend continues. If the share then falls and you haven't set an SL, you'll be in the red pretty quickly. Try to choose your entries anti-cyclically. Then the share is already at the "bottom" anyway. I've done well with it so far
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@Sansebastian
My dear,
If you look at LVMH over a period of more than 10 years.
Then there has hardly been such a correction.
It was therefore not to be expected.
The stock market is not that simple.
Take a look at PayPal, where many people entered anti-cyclically. And it is questionable whether the longed-for turnaround will really come here.
The same applies to the company I have just introduced
Enphase Energy. The fundamental figures look good here, the share is undervalued, but does that guarantee that the price will now rise again?
Is the stock market really that simple?

I also have compounders and long-runners in my portfolio and it wasn't a mistake to enter at the highest price. Because corrections are rather rare here.
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@Tenbagger2024 I look at the corrections of companies in their entire history. ASML, for example, has repeatedly corrected by 30-35%, so it's complete nonsense not to enter counter-cyclically, otherwise you'll end up like you are now. Anyone who entered Paypal anti-cyclically is now up 10-15%, because the Turnerbund is already running. Nobody is saying that Enphase, for example, will rise again, but it's all about probabilities. If the bottom is in, which it doesn't look like at the moment, then probably not.
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@Sansebastian
I already entered ASML during a correction.
Likewise with LVMH.
I'm sure you could have predicted that ASML would react in this way to the figures.
🔮🔮
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@Tenbagger2024 huh, unfortunately you don't understand what I mean. So let's drop it 😄 I never said I could predict anything, but well...
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@Sansebastian how do you currently see $8035?
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@Memo0606 You're already voting 😎
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@Sansebastian yes that's also my friend 😅 But I would be interested in your opinion
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@Memo0606 I have done absolutely nothing with the company. From a purely technical point of view, a bottom should form at the current level
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@Sansebastian yes... also think that a bottom is forming
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@Memo0606 does not look like it at the moment
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And the whole time I thought that was you in your profile picture 🤦
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@DonkeyInvestor
I think the raccoon on the grill is so great.
Simply fantastic what you come up with here.
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I've never heard of Tokyo Elektron, but the other two are going up again. I have made LVMH my 3rd largest position with an average purchase price of €620
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ASML is one of the few European stocks in which I was also invested until SL took hold. I also almost got back in at the end of August after GD200 was exceeded. But I didn't, because I wanted to wait and see whether it was sustainable or just daily fluctuations. If you look at the logarithmic long-term chart, the upward trend is completely intact and the small setback is of no consequence. Nevertheless, I would wait until the 200-day line, which the share tends to bounce off from time to time, is sustainably exceeded before re-entering the market.
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@Yoshika
Thank you for your great analysis.
And I also think it could go a little deeper.
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Stay tuned. No more than 5% allocation in a single share.
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I am currently thinking a lot about my portfolio and one of my frequent thoughts is to sell everything that is already heavily weighted in the core ETF. In addition, just to address the topic of ASML and LVMH, I also have a crazy idea here as to why these could be two bad investments (too late for us, as we are already in), namely because: these stocks have already performed very strongly and well over a long period of time and therefore many and large investors can take profits at any time out of fear and they then fall sharply. This could not happen to the same extent if a comparable share had been in a previous state. So the idea of a broadly diversified global fund as a core and small satellites of promising, as yet unknown stocks (finding them is of course a huge challenge) is becoming more and more established in my mind.
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My dear Kate.
I think it's great how much thought you put into it and that you share it with us.
Thank you for that 😘.
I don't think the idea of using the ETF as a foundation is a bad one.
Because you don't see all the pipe-dreamers that the ETF contains and so it can't put you in a bad mood.
On the other hand, it would also be nice not to have all these rotten potatoes from the ETF.
And only pick out the good potatoes in the form of individual stocks as a foundation.
I think the idea of Grow stocks as satellites is great.
We'd be happy to exchange ideas.
With the question of what your Tenbagger favorites are?
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I would not be interested in minus 20 - 30% for a few stocks, but rather in the wrong decisions made in recent years.

Stock purchases that were not made or mistakes that were made with sales.
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nice post
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Have you fallen into the Fomo? It happens to everyone, but at least they are decent companies and you can hope for recovery
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@topicswithhead
Maybe it was FOMO.
You have now also bought ASML.
I think one problem may have been that you missed the exit and sold Tokyo at +30%.
You are always wiser afterwards and such a mini crash can happen.
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I bought from ASML but I thought the prices of 800+ were insane, whereas now they're back in a good range, but maybe they'll go back to 550, that would be exciting
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@topicswithhead the same at LVMH
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@topicswithhead
If the shares are cheap enough, they should rise again.
In the long term, TSMC also needs new machines again.
Do you think that the weakness at Intel also had such an impact on ASML?
Hynix is building some new plants again.
Maybe you can give us a detailed analysis.
Who exactly uses ASML technology.
Who has obsolete machines, who has planned new plants.
And what ASML can profit from.
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@Tenbagger2024 to do something like this you need data and time without end and that would hardly be worth posting here. Proper research papers are just hours of reading and these mini reports that are already being done are a lot of reading. I don't put everything in the text, but I still try to understand the company. Massive respect from those who do this, because finding information in Google or co is nowadays simply more skill than the actual writing
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How much lost book value are we talking about? That should be <2k. None of the companies will go bankrupt, so just sit it out. I would be careful with Varta or other bankruptcy candidates, but the 3 should turn the corner. With my -20% candidates, there are other stocks in the portfolio - but I can still sleep peacefully, the cyclicals will come back and the rest will also recover 😏
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My dear,
I can live with that. It was only about the lower part of my depot and avoiding mistakes.
Perhaps I should have posted the upper part of the depot as well 🙈.
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@Tenbagger2024 But that's not a mistake - nobody always catches the dip and always sells at the ATH. Some stocks you have to sit out.
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Hi, may I ask which influencers you follow?

I like to get my inspiration from your posts 😅
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@PiHu
Hello, my dear.
You make me happy.
I try not to be influenced by any influencers.
I look for some stocks using stock finders, stock screeners, OnVista, etc.
Once I've found shares, I look at the fundamental figures and of course the business model.
And at the end I also look at whether an influencer has presented the share.
But many of my stocks are also rather unknown there 🙈.
Otherwise, I like analyses by Maximilian Gamperling (Influencer).
Or the market assessment by Martin Goersch (OnVista Mahlzeit).
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Charlie Munger is known to have never experienced volatility with a 20% drop in Portfolio👍🏻
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@cryptodaddy
God rest his soul
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I don't set any stop losses. At the moment I only have companies in my portfolio whose strategy and operating business I understand and as long as nothing fundamental changes, I simply DCA when the opportunity presents itself. I would accept a 50% crash in any of my stocks. I think if you are so uncertain that you set a stop loss, you shouldn't buy the stock at all.
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