As already announced, I wanted to reduce individual positions.
In the last post on SAP here, I dealt with the value:
SAP is currently suffering from the poor sentiment towards the software industry.
I have analyzed the possible consequences of the AI boom in detail and see an attractive entry opportunity for the software giant.
I entered SAP (at 163 euros) yesterday (Wednesday, March 18).
Since the all-time high of 283.50 euros reached a year ago (19.2.25), the DAX heavyweight has lost as much as 40% of its value.
By adding to the portfolio, I am deliberately going against the current clearly negative trend of the share.
It is therefore an anti-cyclical positioning in a phase in which the market is still taking a very generalized view of the effects of the accelerated introduction of artificial intelligence (AI) into our lives.
The dominant theme on the stock markets at the moment is the concern that special AI agents will structurally weaken established software providers in the future or even completely disrupt their business model.
AtSAP , this concern stems primarily from the traditional license model, which has historically been strongly linked to user numbers.
IfKI agents take on tasks in the future that previously required several employees to have an SAP license, the number of "seats" will theoretically decrease.
This would mean falling revenue for SAP.
The Group is therefore already focusing on models in which the specific added value of an AI action is priced rather than the number of licenses.
However, it will probably be some time before this has a noticeable impact on sales.
SAP has a clear structural advantage
In my opinion, this negative view of many market participants nevertheless falls short in the case of SAP due to its positioning.
The Group is the operational backbone of more than 400,000 companies worldwide, whose systems integrate financial accounting, procurement, HR processes and supply chain management.
The data is structured, has grown historically and is closely interlinked. This is precisely what is crucial for productive AI applications.
AI can only automate processes if it accesses consistent, verified and well-prepared business data.
This is exactly what SAP offers.
In its role as a "single source of truth", the company therefore has a clear structural advantage that cannot be copied by AI agents, no matter how intelligent they are.
The risk for the Walldorf-based company therefore lies less in a complete displacement than in a possible decoupling of the user interface.
If employees work via external AI assistants in future, which only access SAP data via interfaces, SAP could lose direct customer access and therefore pricing power.
However, the Executive Board has long since recognized this and has provided its customers with its own AI assistant, Joule, which accesses the company's internal business data, answers questions, creates analyses and automates routine processes.
The aim is to embed AI functions so deeply into the company's processes that they are truly perceived as added value and paid for accordingly.
AI can turn from a potential risk into a real margin driver
This is exactly where I see a great opportunity.
SAP started very early on to develop AI not as an isolated product, but as an integral part of its cloud strategy.
The move to the cloud bundles data, increases the predictability of revenue and creates the technical basis for scalable AI functions.
If these functions can be monetized step by step via usage-based models or higher-value packages, AI can turn from a potential risk into a real margin driver for my new portfolio value.
Against this backdrop, I see it as positive that SAP has also prepared for the transformation of its business model in terms of personnel at an early stage, despite all the resistance.
In my view, the current share price setbacks therefore primarily reflect the current uncertainty rather than a fundamental reassessment of profitability.
As is so often the case on the stock markets, the first step is to sell without much differentiation.
This offers great opportunities in the medium term. SAP's 12-month forward P/E ratio has almost halved from just under 43 at its peak to just 23 at present and is exactly in line with the 10-year average.
I still see plenty of upside potential in the earnings estimates, also because the Executive Board is explicitly working on higher margins (e.g. through the internal use of AI).
Anti-cyclical strategy with buy limit
However, the current clearly negative momentum makes timing difficult.
If you buy anti-cyclically in such a phase, you have to expect prices to fall further until sentiment turns and other narratives come into focus.
I have therefore placed an additional buy limit for the share (EUR 163; DE0007164600) at EUR 149.00, just above a technical support level.
SAP is described in the text as a fundamentally strong quality stock that is under pressure in the short term due to AI concerns and currently offers an anti-cyclical entry opportunity.
