Perhaps you could suggest your model to the federal government. As a pension fund
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@Tenbagger2024 I don't think it would be a clever idea to shift EUR 10bn into a 3x-leveraged Nasdaq100 ETF or a 5x-leveraged TLT at the turn of every month.
The SPD base is already breaking out in a sweat and getting gambler's fits when it comes to ETF savings plans. 😁
The SPD base is already breaking out in a sweat and getting gambler's fits when it comes to ETF savings plans. 😁
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@Epi Why, the amount makes no difference if the strategy is right and long-term :) :) :)
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@Migu11 You'd be hacking away at your own returns. You would have a self-inflicted spread that would ruin all returns. You're basically arbitraging away your own strategy. And people will start to reallocate before you 😅
In my view, the strategy works because not too many people follow it.
In my view, the strategy works because not too many people follow it.
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•3Mon
@SchlaubiSchlumpf Exactly, the strategy only works because it contradicts classical financial market theory and therefore nobody follows it. 😁
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•@Epi for me somehow a super hedge against my portfolio, which is otherwise quasi applied classical financial market theory. 😅
Whereby GTAA3 is actually a bad hedge. Sometimes it correlates strongly, sometimes not. Depending on where the momentum is. But should it be similar for you with spytips and GTAA?
Whereby GTAA3 is actually a bad hedge. Sometimes it correlates strongly, sometimes not. Depending on where the momentum is. But should it be similar for you with spytips and GTAA?
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•3Mon
@SchlaubiSchlumpf I wouldn't necessarily call a strategy with 3.5 times the vola a hedge. 😅
The correlation to the broad market is 0.3 on average in the long term. But it is true that sometimes 3xGTAA correlates strongly, sometimes not. But that means weakly correlated.
In total, I run 5 strategies. Sounds like a lot, but with 2 strategies I have quasi B&H, with 2 trading once a month and 1 is a trading portfolio to give my actionism an outlet and to react flexibly to market events. In the last few days I have tried to hedge TechVola in the GTAA strategies with a -3xETF on semiconductors in the trading portfolio. The hedge went into negative territory, but that was okay; overall, the last few days have been very good for the portfolio.
With the 5 strategies, which have an average correlation of approx. 0.35, I expect a relatively even return of 1.5-2%pM. After 2 successful test years, I declare this goal achieved.
This means that I am now slowly starting to plan my future accordingly. I started the strategies 3 years ago with approx. 200k. At the moment, the strategies are at around 450k and will generate an average of 2%pM in 2025, i.e. currently around 9kpM additional income. If this continues, then without further contributions I will have an income of 1 million or 20kpM by the turn of the decade.
I first have to get used to these figures and to the fact that from now on further saving in the strategies seems pretty pointless. At some point it will be time to say: enough is enough!
But I still don't trust the roast and am waiting for the next bear market to gain certainty about the robustness of the meta-strategy. 😬
The correlation to the broad market is 0.3 on average in the long term. But it is true that sometimes 3xGTAA correlates strongly, sometimes not. But that means weakly correlated.
In total, I run 5 strategies. Sounds like a lot, but with 2 strategies I have quasi B&H, with 2 trading once a month and 1 is a trading portfolio to give my actionism an outlet and to react flexibly to market events. In the last few days I have tried to hedge TechVola in the GTAA strategies with a -3xETF on semiconductors in the trading portfolio. The hedge went into negative territory, but that was okay; overall, the last few days have been very good for the portfolio.
With the 5 strategies, which have an average correlation of approx. 0.35, I expect a relatively even return of 1.5-2%pM. After 2 successful test years, I declare this goal achieved.
This means that I am now slowly starting to plan my future accordingly. I started the strategies 3 years ago with approx. 200k. At the moment, the strategies are at around 450k and will generate an average of 2%pM in 2025, i.e. currently around 9kpM additional income. If this continues, then without further contributions I will have an income of 1 million or 20kpM by the turn of the decade.
I first have to get used to these figures and to the fact that from now on further saving in the strategies seems pretty pointless. At some point it will be time to say: enough is enough!
But I still don't trust the roast and am waiting for the next bear market to gain certainty about the robustness of the meta-strategy. 😬
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•@Epi
How do you proceed in a bear market? And when do you change your portfolio?
When we are in the bear market or already at the beginning.
How do you proceed in a bear market? And when do you change your portfolio?
When we are in the bear market or already at the beginning.
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@Epi Yup. As a risk manager (I was a professional one for a while), I would say that vola falls in some market phases due to low correlation, but adds up in others. This means that the probability of the "brutal drawdown" risk occurring decreases, while the risk remains the same or even increases slightly compared to the market as a whole. (In the case when all leveraged strategies are pointing to equities and you are leveraged in total).
I understand the need for security. Maybe you should think about what your goals are. If you really want to indulge in hedonism at some point, you could continue to save and increase your assets first. If you want security, you could start to diversify a little more inefficiently. Also against the failure of the overall market. Real estate, tangible assets... if you want to change your job to a less profitable one, you could probably do that too. Perhaps after the previous point 🤔
I don't know what my goal is yet. I think FIRE appeals to me personally. But the RE part would be stupid for me as a civil servant. I would give up the pension I've earned. But I'm only 32, have "only" 127k and most of it in a multifactor etf. In pessimistic scenarios, I am simply financially well protected in retirement. In optimistic scenarios, I would have saved a lot unnecessarily and would actually have to go part-time at some point so that the whole thing doesn't feel absurdly pointless. Otherwise, after adjusting for inflation, I'll have 12k per month in my pension as a secure withdrawal (without consumption), although I've managed with 2.5k all my life.
I understand the need for security. Maybe you should think about what your goals are. If you really want to indulge in hedonism at some point, you could continue to save and increase your assets first. If you want security, you could start to diversify a little more inefficiently. Also against the failure of the overall market. Real estate, tangible assets... if you want to change your job to a less profitable one, you could probably do that too. Perhaps after the previous point 🤔
I don't know what my goal is yet. I think FIRE appeals to me personally. But the RE part would be stupid for me as a civil servant. I would give up the pension I've earned. But I'm only 32, have "only" 127k and most of it in a multifactor etf. In pessimistic scenarios, I am simply financially well protected in retirement. In optimistic scenarios, I would have saved a lot unnecessarily and would actually have to go part-time at some point so that the whole thing doesn't feel absurdly pointless. Otherwise, after adjusting for inflation, I'll have 12k per month in my pension as a secure withdrawal (without consumption), although I've managed with 2.5k all my life.
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•3Mon
@Tenbagger2024 The plan is not to change anything in a bear market, i.e. to let all strategies continue as before. If everything runs optimally, the model shifts into defensive assets beforehand (bonds, USD, gold, cash) and a bear market in equities passes the portfolio by without a trace. 🤞
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