Wanted to spark a discussion around $INT (-2.11%). Seeing a lot of hype, red flags, and short interest lately, here’s where I stand, and I want to hear your thoughts.
🔍 Key data & developments
- Intellego develops colorimetric UV/C dosimeter & photochromic indicator tech, used for validating UV disinfection and related uses.
- Q2 2025 was strong: revenues jumped ~4× (to ~217 M SEK) and operating profit surged.
- They’ve raised full-year guidance: targeting >700 M SEK revenue, and >400 M SEK operating profit.
- But share price is volatile, investor sentiment is wavering.
- Short interest is rising fast: recent reports show ~8.25% of shares are being shorted (up from ~0.5% mid-Sep).
- They’re launching a share buyback program (~100 M SEK) as a defense.
- Risk flags: high non-cash earnings, big volatility, leadership churn (some top execs left recently).
- CEO bought stock in September (shows confidence)
🧠 My take
There is a real growth story. The UV / disinfection / hygiene space has momentum (especially after COVID). Intellego’s tech has plausible use cases in healthcare, sanitization, etc. Their numbers are improving, and the buyback is a signal of confidence.
But the risk is nontrivial:
- When so much of the perceived upside is already priced in, any miss or negative news will hit hard.
- With short interest rising, there’s a tug-of-war either a squeeze or a crash.
- Leadership instability and reliance on optimistic forecasts make this a higher risk play than many.
So “crushing the shorts” might work if the company continues to execute flawlessly. But it’s not a guarantee.
😬 Questions I want to pose to the crowd
Do you trust the numbers? How likely is it that they’ll hit >700 M SEK revenue and >400 M SEK op profit this year?
Is the short float too high? At ~8%, is that manageable or a ticking bomb?
What’s the valuation margin of safety? With volatility and volatility expectation baked in, where’s the breakeven?
What scenarios would lead this to implode vs explode?
Would you bet on a short squeeze? Or would you lean safer and wait for confirmation?
If you were in my shoes with capital on the line, would you lean long, short, or stay out and wait for the dust to settle?
Let’s crowdsource this, I’m curious where the smart money is going.
