Nibe Industrier Stock Forum

Does anyone know what is $NIBE B (-1.37%) is going on. Now ytd is down over 30%. Couldn't find anything.

And I also bought here, because the entry signal was also there for me.

And here is another addition to my portfolio. Nibe is for me a pure play on the revolution of the wHeat sector in terms of heat pumps and Co.

The hype of the last months was well sold off and based on my fundamental analysis, it is now worth buying.

I have also attached an excerpt from my analysis.

What do you think of Nibe? How do you see the future? Do you have the company in your portfolio?

+++ Signs of life +++

(from the series: Investment Diary & Thoughts)

Knee surgery survived last week. 🩼

Whether good, is the other question... 😣 In the meantime got postoperative fever, knee still swollen, probably needs to be punctured again... and otherwise so?

I lie around the whole day, meow at my wife from time to time (which I feel sorry for again seconds later, because she certainly can't help it...) and then I think to myself:

Look again in your depot. But no, I don't feel like it. Health and all that. That comes first.

Now I fell so when planking on the sofa suddenly my own trains of thought to the topic invest. And the decision is made after 2 days:

I will make my investing even simpler and less complex.

What follows:

Nearly all BigBlueChips are sorted out and shifted into the MSCI World & MSCI EM. After all, they are represented there anyway, so why bother with them?

What remains for the pension is the MSCI World ($IWDA (+0.72%) ) , MSCI EM ($EIMI (-1.88%))and EUWAX GOLD II ($EWG2 (-1.37%) ).

In addition, I focus on 5 (max. 7) individual stocks. According to the current status these include $ST5 (-2.28%) (Steico SE), $NIBE B (-1.37%) (NIBE "is love"); $YSN (-1.43%) (Secunet); $UKW (-0.31%) (Greencoat for ever - or what better comes); $COLO B (+0.18%) (Coloplast) and $MRK (-0.26%) (Merck KGaA).

Over the years, I have become less and less interested in more.

Investing remains important. But please make it as boring as possible.

The last weeks alone (preparation for surgery and now the aftercare) have shown me that I am not ready for this and especially not able to keep track of 15-20 values. Thus, the focus on investing as simple as possible and still preserve individual value opportunities for me has become more attractive again.

Maybe this will actually create opportunities for the activated trading of 1-2 values from the basic framework... if not, also not so wild. And yet I will be able to focus even better on these values.

Concentrating on a few individual values and a really large core (I'm also talking about more than 150k€ in the core here) is the true core-satellite strategy for me. That I had neglected this over the years somewhat, or expanded - normal. So now "back to the roots", or "back to simplicity".

Time is not money, but valuable in terms of family, free time and your own health.

And otherwise so?

Soon the physiotherapy will start. I have no idea how to cope at the moment, but that will come.

I still have the post on hold for the "Green Investment" and the resolution (win pronounced in the poll) of the winner of the getquin-Cap. Both of which I have not forgotten. As soon as I can sit reasonably, without problems, I will get back to writing.

To getquin I will certainly become more active again, I have time now. At least 8 weeks (with good progress) is a long time.

So, keep your head up, dad is doing it too....

Your KneePapa. 🦵

+++ NIBE: Acquisition of Climate for Life +++

(from the series: My Investments)

Due to time constraints, only the short info about the acquisition of Climate for Life Group by NIBE Industriers. $NIBE B (-1.37%)

Excerpt from the announcement:

CFL successfully develops, manufactures and markets energy-efficient solutions in HVAC (heating, cooling, hot water, ventilation and air conditioning). The Group has an excellent position in the Dutch residential and commercial market. It stands out for its ambitions regarding energy-neutral living. CFL is a well-known player with impressive know-how, having a well-established product range including water heaters, heat pumps and ventilation systems.

Source: NIBE Investor Newsletter

https://mailchi.mp/aa671a8a0125/pressemitteilungen-15369390?e=d38d247181

❤️ NIBE IS LOVE! ❤️

+++ Viessmann! NIBE, what now? +++

(The heat pump and investing - nothing but hot air?)

The news broke like a storm in the German news last week: Viessmann is switching to Carrier $CARR (+3.16%) for a strong 12 billion euros. 💰

Only is this news really that big or isn't it actually exactly the scenario I have been hinting at and addressing in my previous posts on NIBE? ☝️

The heat pump market has been a topic with enormous potential and opportunities as well as risks, and not just since the decision by the German government and other countries.

This is reason enough for me to take a closer look at heat pumps and, once again, at my investment, NIBE Industri $NIBE B (-1.37%) 🧐 I'd like to take a closer look at this topic.

The heat pump - definition and function:

In short, the heat pump is a power-heating machine that uses technical-mechanical work to take thermal energy from a source with a temperature lower than the target temperature and transfer it as useful heat to a heating system. [see Chart 1; Source 1.]

Heat pumps are primarily used for heating buildings, but also find application in the process industry, the domestic clothes dryer but also on the refrigerator (at least systematically with the process principle of the heat pump...).

Heat pumps are divided according to their method of operation, heat source, heat utilization and mode of operation. To go into all procedures would go beyond the scope of this article. You can find more details in [Source 2]. However, the most important thing for most people is the type of heat source.

There are three main sources of heat and the way they work:

• Air-to-water heat pump (Energy from ambient air is drawn in and with contact with the refrigerant, it evaporates, setting the heat pump cycle in motion).
• Brine-water heat pump (geothermal heat is transported for energy production via a geothermal probe and brine-filled pipe, so-called ground source heat pump)
• Water-water heat pump (groundwater is pumped via probe and well into another "well", here heated by the geothermal heat and then fed into the heating process)

The heat pump - advantages and disadvantages:

Below I briefly list the advantages and disadvantages of the heat pump. However, the advantages and disadvantages mentioned here are WITHOUT valuation. It is thus purely a list to get an overview. Also, certain points in advantages and disadvantages are only relevant if certain conditions are met!

No claim to completeness, it is in my loose considerations.

Advantages:

• Energy efficiency, through use of environmental heat
• Cost savings, lower energy consumption of the pump leads to lower operating costs
• Environmental friendliness, no fossil fuels therefore reduction of CO2 emission
• Versatility, different applications are possible - heating, hot water production and cooling
• Comfort, with constant room temperature throughout the year
• Durability, long service life and lower maintenance requirements

Disadvantages:

• High acquisition costsConventional heating systems are cheaper to purchase, therefore higher investment costs are necessary.
• Dependence on ambient temperature, ensures that especially in winter the energy efficiency decreases
• Space requirementDue to the size and the required installation space, more space is needed in the house and on the property.
• Noise levelSome heat pumps are noisy during start-up or under load.
• ComplexityHeat pumps are not maintenance-free and require regular maintenance to ensure the longevity of the pump.

The heat pump - a "short" history

In 1834, Jacob Perkins was the first developer to complete the construction of a machine based on the principle of the heat pump. At that time, he designed a cooling device in which ether was pumped into a cooling coil system and was used, for example, on ships. 💡

The machine he designed already contained the four main components of a modern heat pump: the compressor, a condenser, an evaporator and an expansion valve.

It was Lord Kelvin (yes, the very gentleman after whom the temperature unit Kelvin is named) who predicted that an "inverted heat engine" could and would be used for heating purposes. It was also he who realized that a heat pump, by its principle of drawing heat from the environment, would require less primary energy to be of effective use.

Nevertheless, another 85 years passed before the first heat pump for space heating was put into operation. It was pioneers like the German Carl von Linde (inventor of the modern refrigerator) and other inventors with a thirst for action, that it was precisely through refrigeration machines that heat pump technology could be further developed and built upon.

Finally, the Swiss Heinrich Zoelley was the first foolhardy inventor to propose and conceive an electrically driven heat pump using geothermal energy as a heat source. In 1919, he was granted the patent number 59350, and yet... again, the time was not yet ripe and a first technical realization took another 20 years. From 1930 the first air conditioners for room cooling with the possibility of additional room heating were built. The efficiency, however, was sufficiently modest. 😔

In the wake of World War II and the accompanying coal shortage, Swiss companies such as Sulzer, Escher Wyss, and Boverei developed and put into operation some thirty-five heat pumps between 1937 and 1945. The main heat sources were lake water, river water, as well as ground water and waste heat. The first mentioned pumps were water-water heat pumps. Special mention should be made of the heat pump of the Escher Wyss company, because this heat pump, built in 1937/38, was used to replace wood stoves in Zurich City Hall. This heat pump heated the city hall for 63 years. Until the year 2001.😳

Falling oil prices in the 1950s and 60s, on the other hand, were a major blow to the development of the heat pump. Burning fossil fuels was more lucrative, at times more effective and, above all, cheaper.

In Germany, the first heat pump was installed in a single-family house in 1968. Here, a ground-source heat pump was used in combination with low-temperature underfloor heating.

It was not until the oil embargo and the resulting increase in the price of oil that the heat pump suddenly became interesting again. But the story would be too simple if the many incompetent suppliers in the heat pump sector and the renewed drop in the price of crude oil at the end of the 1980s had not once again brought an abrupt end to the technology surrounding the heat pump.

It was finally the Swedes who, together with the Swiss company Sulzer-Escher-Wyss, developed and put into operation the largest heat pump system in the world (180 megawatt heat pump system) with 6 pump units of 30 MW each for the Stockholm district heating network. The system works with the heat source of seawater from the Baltic Sea.

From 1990, the rapid spread of heat pump heating began. The reasons were the technical advances, greater reliability, more efficient compressors and, of course, the sharp price reductions. 📈

Renewed and even greater importance was attached to the heat pump technology since the outbreak of the Ukraine conflict and the associated war. Because the heat pump promises the decoupling from the use of fossil fuels such as gas and oil.

The heat pump - manufacturers in Germany and internationally

In Germany, the market for heat pumps is served by manufacturers such as Bosch Thermotechnik, Stiebel, Eltron, Vaillant and, last but not least, Viessmann. Bosch Thermotechnik is the subsidiary of the supplier Bosch and comes from the acquisitions of Buderus and Junkers. This even makes Bosch one of the largest heating manufacturers in Europe. Vaillant was founded in 1874 and today stands primarily for the manufacture of heating, ventilation and air conditioning technology. Vaillant achieved sales of €3.3 billion in 2021. Vaillant's sales of heat pumps increased by 50% compared to the previous year. Striebel Eltron was founded in 1924 and has been developing heat pump technology since the early 1970s. The company generated more than 830 million euros in sales in 2021. There are plans to more than triple production capacity at the Holzminden site.

Among international manufacturers, Daikin Industriers and Panasonic (both Japan) as well as LG or Samsung (both South Korea) and NIBE Industriers (Sweden) are among the largest producers of heat pumps. Carrier Global has also bought further into the heat pump market with the acquisition of Viessmann and the also recent acquisition of Toshiba Klimatechnik.

It can be assumed that other, currently smaller players want to and will jump on the heat pump bandwagon. These include companies that we still classically associate with fossil fuels or only remotely with air conditioning and heating technology.

The heat pump - the market (in Germany), its key figures and future

The market for heat pumps has experienced a massive upswing in recent years. The sales volume in 2017 was 48 billion US dollars. Meanwhile, it is expected to double with up to 100 billion US dollars worldwide this year. 🤑

While Asia and the USA were the drivers of global demand for heat pumps until recent years, Europe has seen a veritable boom in demand since the outbreak of the Ukraine war. In Germany alone, sales rose from 154,000 heating heat pumps in 2021 to 236,000 units in 2022 (+53.25%).

The federal government in Germany also decided to consistently expand and standardize this heating technology by 2030. In 2024, half a million heat pumps are to be installed, and in 2030 the installed base will be 6 million devices. 📊

No wonder that the industry association "Bundesverband Wärmepumpe e.V. sums up: "Thus the heat pump becomes the new standard heating." According to its study of 30.01.2023, these goals can be considered realistic. [Source 3]

The market share of heat pumps in the so-called heat generator market increases in 2022 from 16.5% to approx. 25%. This means that every fourth heating system replacement involves the installation of a heat pump. Around 56,000 heat pumps were installed in new buildings, which corresponds to a share of 54% of newly built properties. 🏠

In 2022, 1.45 million heating heat pumps were in operation in Germany. Most of the systems were installed in only the past 15 years. With the long service life of these units described above, most of the units are still in their "youthful age", which is why the replacement rate of old units is currently still below 2% of annual sales. An increase of 5% is expected by the year 2030.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects heat pumps to expand from the current 1,000 to up to 2,600 GW (gigawatts) of installed heating capacity by 2030. In some countries, such as the USA and Scandinavia, heat pumps are already the standard heating system.

By the end of the decade, the heat pump industry association expects an annual installation figure of slightly less than one million heat pumps for Germany.

My investment - NIBE at risk?

Of course, reading news such as the takeover of Viessmann makes you wonder. Is my investment and the decision to invest in it the right one? Can the company survive in this tough market? Is the company prepared for the future?

NIBE - The company

In 1949 Nils Bernerup and Christian Backer founded Backer Elektro-Värme AB in Sösdala, Sweden, which manufactured the so-called Backer element (after a patent Chr. Backer for tubular heating element). In 1952 Bernerup also founded NIBE-Verken AB in Markaryd by taking over Ebe-Verken. Bernerup's initials have since given the company name NIBE.

With Sven Christiensson and subsequently Rune Dahlberg, NIBE developed into a leading manufacturer of tubular heating elements with an emphasis on quality and rational production by 1987.

However, the company was already present in 1952 with water heaters in the agricultural sector (in this case milking equipment), manufactured fireplaces for the Handöl brand as a subcontractor, later took over the company and in 1981 introduced the first heat pump (Fighter Twin) from NIBE. Production of heat pumps begins in Markaryd immediately afterwards.

In 1989 the Bernerup family decides to sell both Backer-Värme AB and NIBE-Verken AB. Employees from these two companies, together with two other investors, establish the now well-known NIBE Industrier AB and take over the business.

Gerteric Lindquist is appointed CEO, and he is still NIBE's Group CEO today.

NIBE Industier AB has been listed and traded on the Stockholm Stock Exchange since 1997. The IPO is also the starting signal for the company's strong expansion and acquisition drive, which continues to this day.

Since the IPO, more than 70 acquisitions have been made. The complete list can be found at https://www.nibe.com/nibe-group#Text3 and https://www.nibe.com/de/nibe-group/akquisitionen-der-nibe-group to be viewed.

A special feature of NIBE's acquisitions is the point at which the acquired companies become independent after the takeover. Newly acquired companies are encouraged to continue writing their own corporate history with commitment. This includes ensuring that acquired companies retain their identity and brands. Also, the previous business owners are left untouched as far as possible. The companies are to be continued with their previous management at the original locations and thus stand for continuity and responsible local action.

NIBE in figures = love?

The latest annual report can be found at [Source 5] dated 14.04.2023.

NIBE's core market is North America with 27%, the Scandinavian countries with 22% and Europe with 46%. In 2022, sales amounted to Sales amounted to SEK 40.071 billion (EURO 3.5 billion) to SEK 30.83 billion (EURO 2.7 billion) from the previous year. This corresponds to a growth of 30%. Sales growth has been stable for at least 5 years.

The earnings per share were 2.17 SEK (0.19 EURO). This is also the fifth year in a row that profit has increased.

The operating margin increased slightly in 2022 from 14.4% (2021) to 14,7%. After tax, NIBE will achieve a Group net profit of SEK 4.428 billion (EURO 387 million), an increase of 33.16% compared with the previous year (SEK 3.348 billion). With an equity ratio of more than 50% the company is financially sound and ready for further acquisitions.

NIBE pays a dividend. However, this is quite meager. It makes sense, however, given the capital outlay required for development and acquisitions. The dividend yield related to the share price is approx. 0.57% at 0.65 SEK (0.057€). In the long term, the payout ratio is expected to be 25-30% of net income. Investors should also be aware that Swedish shares are subject to a higher withholding tax.

NIBE = the future?

NIBE has already defined targets for its corporate activities in the past. These include targets for key performance indicators, but also targets in the areas of SRI and ESG.

The main corporate targets are growth (at least 20% per year), return on equity (at least 20%), operating margin (at least 10% of sales) and equity ratio (not to fall below 30%).

In terms of sustainable corporate goals, 60% of the product portfolio was originally to represent sustainable and higher climate protection by the end of 2023; this goal has now already been achieved at 63.2% and has therefore been reformulated to 70% by 2026.

Energy consumption is to be continuously reduced, and the accident rate at the workplace is to remain constantly low. To this end, the LTIF value will be looked at.

The CO2 balance is to be improved and by 2050 NIBE wants to be completely climate neutral. To achieve this, emissions are to be reduced to 65% of the 2019 baseline by 2030. This corresponds to 11,500 tons of CO2.

NIBE sees its opportunities in the area of energy efficiency in the end user's own home, everyday safety in the supply of hot water, building energy efficiency and infrastructure and industry.

Opportunities from NIBE:

• great market potential for heat pumps and air-conditioning solutions
• Potential in the renewable energy sector
• International market presence
• broad product range
• intensive and driving product development
• Synergy effects from new acquisitions and cooperations
• Expansion through acquisitions
• Energy prices could force consumers to take action

NIBE's risks:

• Changes in legislation and decisions by authorities, with impact on existing product ranges
• weak economic activity
• increasing competition and competitors from Asia and the USA
• energy prices could decrease for consumers or increase for production
• raw material prices
• Currency fluctuations (SEK to dollar and EURO)
• supplier dependency (see supply chain issues)
• geopolitical situation such as wars and sanctions

The bottom line:

The topic of heat pumps is a highly complex one. Not only are politicians currently looking for solutions and ways to quickly move away from fossil fuels or to reduce dependence on certain countries or resources, no, complex interrelationships such as the energy-efficient use of air-conditioning technology products or heat or cooling pumps used in production and process chains also play an important role for the future.

The sale of Viessmann's air conditioning division to a major player in air conditioning technology shows that the cleaning and consolidation of the market is only just beginning. Large groups will penetrate the individual regional markets, especially from the Asian environment.

In terms of market technology, there is still a lot of cake to be distributed, but the distribution battle is not a children's birthday party and will take one or the other competitor and protagonist out of the race.

Viessmann was only the beginning for us Germans and now of all times the big outcry. In a normal news situation without the explosive nature of today, this takeover would probably have remained a marginal note. Now here meanwhile and at times with brute words like the "sellout of German industry"... but this sale is by no means a sell-out, but it shows the direction in which the market is moving. Eat or be eaten.

NIBE has been expanding for many years now. The company's activities are broadly based and not just limited to heat pumps. Whether it is heating solutions with fireplaces, the heat pumps or as a partner to industry, NIBE has established itself as a professional, solution-oriented and, above all, committed company (in terms of the environment and social responsibility). The solutions it offers are constantly being developed further, cooperation with other companies is being sought and the expansion course that has been embarked upon is being constantly pursued.

I am not currently concerned that the market for heat pumps or other climate-friendly solutions will wane or that it will be sold off to Asian competitors (as has happened in the past with PV and solar solutions). NIBE would do well to maintain its growth trajectory.

I am also positive about the company's future goals and competencies and hope for further sustainable developments in the future.

I am sticking to my guns, even though I expressly warn against exuberant feelings about shares:

NIBE is LOVE. ♥️

At least for my portfolio.

Source 1: Chart 1 - https://um.baden-wuerttemberg.de/fileadmin/redaktion/m-um/intern/Dateien/Dokumente/2_Presse_und_Service/Publikationen/Energie/Energieeffiziente_WP_Heizungsanlagen.pdf or as video under https://youtu.be/KDL1Xf-kuIA

Source 2: Wikipedia on the heat pump https://de.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wärmepumpe

Source 3: Industry study heat pump 2023 https://www.waermepumpe.de/fileadmin/user_upload/waermepumpe/05_Presse/01_Pressemitteilungen/BWP_Branchenstudie_2023_DRUCK.pdf

Source 4: Graphic from the study of source 3, sales heat pump (Industry study heat pump 2023)

Source 5: Annual report 2022 from 14.04.2023 https://www.nibe.com/download/18.4ccfd67f186f21bb5967bdd/1681288254456/DE-G-bericht-22-W.pdf

#nibe

Long live the #tldr club ! 📝

Hello all,

Opinion: About Viessmann -->$CARR (+3.16%) Carrier Global? Is it worth a bet to invest in Viessmann via this route among others?

Ort what are the alternative investments if you want to invest something in the air conditioning sector? (besides $NIBE B (-1.37%)
$6367 (-2.13%)
$8058 (-1.27%)
$005930 etc etc)

Thanks!

+++ Cherry Blossom 🌸 +++

(from the series: Investment Diary & Thoughts)

It's that time again:

Every year, the cherry blossom also announces the AGM and dividend season in my portfolio.

Naturally, my German stocks in particular are in the portfolio with $EOAN (-1.03%)
$ALV (-0.71%) and $MRK (-0.26%) the main drivers for the big dividend payment in May, but also other stocks like $COLO B (+0.18%)
$NIBE B (-1.37%) and $UKW (-0.31%) are then in the middle instead of just being there.

So while in the rest of the year in my stock garden rather the motto: "Stupid run, smart wait, wise go to the garden."
prevails, May is a true sign of life in the portfolio. 🌱

Something is happening here, something is growing here (namely, at times, the dividend and its yield).... and if I notice that, how will it only be with our dividend hunters on getquin be? 🤑

This small and sympathetic exception in my portfolio (the strong dividend payment for the remainder of the year) make me then nevertheless also again and again happy. Because, as with the cherry blossom, this is a time that I always look forward to anew.🥳

As is typical for German and European shares, the Annual General Meeting also falls at this time. (because without bees no cherries... er, without AGM no dividend) and here remains only a quote from the garden of long-term growth: "Green is not everything, but without green everything is nothing." 📈

Happy cherry blossom season to you....

(attached a current picture from my garden)

#dividenden
#kirschblüte

+++ NIBE Annual Report 2022 +++

(from the series: My Investments)

Only "short" interim news: NIBE has just published its Annual Report 2022.

If you want to read really good reading, see how Investors Relations can work internationally also in German and what ESG outperforming reports look like... all can be seen in the latest report.

Besides the positive numbers (quick look speaks of sales growth of 30%, increased margin and increase of equity ratio to 51.8%).) it is really a pleasure to read the detailed reports...

So I will spend my time with that today and tomorrow... it will be exciting. I will definitely report.

To the report:

https://www.nibe.com/de/investoren/pm-news-reports/2022---news-reports/2023-04-14-geschaftsbericht-2022

$NIBE B (-1.37%)
#nibe ❤️

The Portfolio of Horror.

Or: How my investments toppled Credit Suisse...

In reference to @Koenigmidas his post and to show the ingenious tool cs-ausreden.ch I have sent a few of my investments through the AI generator. It is sometimes really scary what a nasty portfolio I have put together here. There I am almost in the future inclined to hunt first of all the company through the AI. The "best of" will then be added to the portfolio. 😉

$COLO B (+0.18%)

We at Credit Suisse are not to blame for the failure of our company, but rather the company Coloplast is responsible for it. Their innovative bowel cleansing product was too distracting for our employees and cost us lots of productivity hours. We tried everything to prohibit employees from using this product, but it was just too tempting. Coloplast ruined us!

$ST5 (-2.28%)

We at Credit Suisse are not to blame for our failure, Steico SE is! It may sound absurd, but their sustainable and environmentally friendly building materials have led to fewer and fewer investors getting involved in our environmentally damaging projects. How are we still supposed to operate profitably? Thank you, Steico!

$YSN (-1.43%)

We at Credit Suisse are not to blame for our failure. The real culprits are the greedy Secunet Security Networks, who drove us to ruin with their overblown IT security software. We can only hope that other banks learn from our mistakes and stay away from these devious technology companies.

$NIBE B (-1.37%)

We at Credit Suisse are not to blame for our failure, but rather the Swedish company NIBE. With their innovative Nibe F2040 heating system, they reduced our clients' energy needs so much that our business volume dropped rapidly. We were simply not prepared for this and could not react in time. Great job, NIBE!

$UKW (-0.31%)

We at Credit Suisse are not to blame for the failure of our bank. It was Greencoat UK Wind that took us down. We invested far too much in these wind turbines, completely forgetting that they only produce electricity when the wind blows. Unfortunately, the wind didn't blow often enough and we had to face reality. But we will still continue to invest in renewable energy and hope that the wind will blow more often in the future.

If you want to have something to laugh about despite all the seriousness, you should urgently take a look at https://cs-ausreden.ch/ occupy yourself.

Which investments are you blaming for the failure of Credit Suisse?