Thanks for the great recommendation @Aktienhauptmeister 🙏🏽 I took the plunge today and will be adding more! An awesome stock 🥳
My second Japanese stock alongside $8001 (-0.78%)
Posts
6Thanks for the great recommendation @Aktienhauptmeister 🙏🏽 I took the plunge today and will be adding more! An awesome stock 🥳
My second Japanese stock alongside $8001 (-0.78%)
First, I’d like to officially @Tenbagger2024 officially welcome back from the sidelines! 🫡 It’s great to have you back!
I hope you were able to enjoy your time off, recharge your batteries 🪫, and return with new energy 🔋 and your usual strength 💪. The community has definitely missed a familiar name—without your insights and analyses, things here were almost a little too quiet. 🙇♂️
And what can I say: Your comeback came even faster than that of the German national soccer team after their latest setbacks—so the bar wasn’t set too high. 😂⚽
With that in mind: Welcome back, my friend! I’m excited to see which companies you’ll pull out of your sleeve this time and which candidates will once again be scrutinized mercilessly. 💀
————————————————————————-
While the market focuses its attention on the usual suspects, there are always companies that fly largely under the radar. One such candidate has been on my watchlist for quite some time and is now on the verge of making the leap into my portfolio.
Today, I’d like to show you why I consider this company (another stock from Japan) to be an extremely exciting investment candidate.
Today’s focus is on Hoya Corp $7741 (+1.17%)
HOYA Corp.: The Invisible Monopoly of the Optics & Chip World
While the stock market is fixated on $ASML (+6.5%) ASML’s EUV lithography machines or the mass production of wafers by $2330 , a Japanese heavyweight has established itself in the shadow of the tech giants—one without which not a single sub-3nm processor can be manufactured in the age of AI and semiconductors: HOYA Corporation. $7741 (+1.17%)
HOYA $7741 (+1.17%) does not manufacture finished microchips or hospital diagnostic devices. HOYA $7741 (+1.17%) supplies the physically perfect, high-precision materials upon which all global progress in the chip industry and medical technology is built.
The difference from ordinary suppliers is enormous: HOYA $7741 (+1.17%) combines the explosive, high-margin growth of the AI and semiconductor sectors with the crisis resilience of a global medical technology monopoly.
1. The Business Model: The Highly Profitable Dual Engine ⚙️👁️
HOYA $7741 (+1.17%) scales through a perfectly balanced two-pillar model that hedges the cyclical dynamics of the tech world with defensive healthcare cash flows:
① Information Technology (IT) Segment (~46–48% of revenue):
② Life Care Segment (~52–54% of revenue):
2. The Technology: Why Sub-3nm & AI Data Centers Would Fail Without HOYA
HOYA’s unique physical selling point $7741 (+1.17%) lies in its its mastery of glass and materials science at the nanometer scale. Two key drivers make HOYA $7741 (+1.17%) indispensable:
The Validation Moat: Just as with tooling suppliers, the approval of a new mask blank or glass substrate at TSMC $2330 , Samsung $005930 or Intel $INTC (+15.38%) is a multi-year qualification process. The switching costs for chip manufacturers are immense.
3. Geographic Distribution: Global Players with Little Home Bias 🌍
HOYA $7741 (+1.17%) is listed in Tokyo, but generates just under 85–88% of its revenue abroad. This provides protection against Japan’s domestic demographic trends and yields massive currency advantages when the yen is weak:
REGION :
🇹🇼🇰🇷🇨🇳ASIA/China
Revenue share: ~35%–38%
Key drivers: semiconductor foundries (TSMC, $2330 Samsung $005930 ) IT packaging hubs
🇪🇺Europe
~28%–30%
Strong life care medtech business (eyewear & endoscopes)
🇺🇸North America
~20%–22%
Data center hyperscalers & U.S. chip design (EUV/HDDS)
🇯🇵Japan
~12%–14%
Medtech sales & optical R&D/manufacturing sites
4. Key Financial Metrics (Fundamental Analysis & Financial DNA) 📊
5. Why is this stock exciting? 🚀
The undisputed “hockey stick” segment (EUV boom): As the chip industry switches to high-NA EUV machines from ASML, the demand for even more precise mask blanks is rising dramatically. HOYA $7741 (+1.17%) benefits from every technological leap in the semiconductor industry.
Defensive safety net: If the semiconductor market enters a cyclical correction, the defensive MedTech segment (Life Care) cushions the valuation and ensures rock-solid cash flows.
At the heart of the AI infrastructure hub: HOYA $7741 (+1.17%) benefits twice when it comes to AI: once through the production of logic chips (EUV) and once through the storage of massive amounts of AI data (HDD glass substrates).
6. Risks ⚠️
🎯 EARNINGS PREP: What to watch for in the next earnings report?
The upcoming quarterly results (Q1 of fiscal year 2027) from HOYA Corp. are just around the corner:
📅 Date:
Thursday, July 30, 2026 (or July 31, depending on the time zone)
⏱ Time: HOYA typically publishes $7741 (+1.17%) releases its results around 1:30 p.m. JST (approx. 6:30 a.m. German time).
📊 Reporting Period: Just-ended first quarter (3 months ending June 30, 2026).
💡 Analyst expectations (consensus)
Revenue: ~$1.55 to $1.57 billion (driven largely by continued demand in the IT/EUV segment).
Earnings per Share (EPS): ~$1.15
For the upcoming earnings update, the key metrics will primarily focus on the IT division and margin trends. The following points should be on your radar:
1.🎭 EUV & High-NA Blank Volume: Will the strong year-over-year growth in the IT segment (+36%) be confirmed? Pay attention to statements regarding the ramp-up of high-NA EUV photomasks at TSMC and Intel.
2.🏭 HDD Glass Substrate Demand (Hyperscaler Capex): Will call-off volumes for glass substrates continue to rise due to AI data center expansion? This is the second major driver in the IT sector.
3. 🤖Margin Stability in the IT Segment: Can the operating margin in the IT sector hold at the extremely high level of >54% , or will R&D costs for the next sub-2nm generations put pressure on profitability in the short term?
4.🩺 Life Care Stability Check: Will the MedTech segment maintain its steady currency-adjusted growth of ~8–9% YoY with an operating margin of just under ~18%? (Any deviation would indicate weaknesses in the end-consumer market for eyeglass lenses).
5. 💴Yen Effect (FX Tailwinds/Headwinds): To what extent does the exchange rate distort the reported JPY figures compared to organic growth abroad (85–88% of revenue generated overseas)?
My Personal Conclusion & Reaper Rating 🧐
I find that Hoya Corp. $7741 (+1.17%) has been incredibly exciting for quite some time now. To me, the company is the textbook example of a perfect hybrid model: On the one hand, it has a virtually irreplaceable monopoly business that supplies an essential key component for the world’s most advanced semiconductors. On the other hand, the strong, defensive medtech business, with its crisis-proof margins, provides stability that excellently cushions the cyclical fluctuations of the semiconductor sector.
It’s precisely this combination that makes Hoya $7741 (+1.17%) so extraordinary to me. The company combines enormous structural growth with a defensive quality that is extremely rare to find in this form.
Of course, Hoya $7741 (+1.17%) still highly valued, no question about it. However, the stock has already pulled back a bit from its ATH, thereby reducing part of its ambitious valuation. For me, this currently presents an exciting opportunity to gradually build a position in a company that’s been on my watchlist for a long time 👀🙇♂️
💀Jack’s Verdict:
Jack’s Take: “If you’re looking for the perfect CRV on the stock market, sooner or later you’ll end up at HOYA. While the masses, in search of the next hype, are chasing after every shovel seller, HOYA holds the monopoly on the specialty glass from which the shovels are forged in the first place.
With the AI and high-NA EUV boom in full swing, the IT division is raking in profits thanks to >54% margin , it’s printing money like a printing press. If the semiconductor cycle stutters briefly, HOYA remains completely unfazed and continues to sell millions of eyeglass lenses, endoscopes, and cataract lenses. You’re not buying a highly speculative tech bet here, but a highly profitable, net-debt-free fortress with a built-in airbag.”
@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin
@Tenbagger2024
@Raketentoni
@PikaPika0105
@Stocktective
@schlimmschlimm
@Multibagger
@Dividendenopi
@Simpson and, of course, all the others ✌️


+ 5
Hello to the GQ community ✌️
My first post after being kicked about 4 weeks ago - who would have thought that solidarity towards one of the members (@Klein-Anleger ) would lead to a ban so quickly? But the goodwill of getquin was so BIG (and above all "on trial") that they graciously let me back into the holy grail of the GQ community 😉
So guys, learn from my mistakes: the goodwill here is not an Infinite Money glitch ! Save your solidarity, reduce your commitment to other members to zero and the most important thing 🚨: No surreptitious advertising for alternative financial platforms like "Cisdord" 😉😂.
Sorry, the side blow after 4 weeks of abstinence had to be 🤝
so joking aside...
⏳The first three months of 2026 have passed. Time for a brief interim summary of the current status of my reconstruction.
Before I started rebuilding the portfolio, I naturally thought about what strategy I wanted to pursue in the coming months and years - especially with regard to stock selection and weighting.
To be honest, my original plan was to keep a portfolio with a maximum of 20 shares. In the course of time, however, I realized that it will probably not stay at 20 stocks, but that the number is more likely to increase to around 30 positions (+/-).
♟️Mein Focus & my strategy:
In a nutshell: The clear focus is on growth 🚀. Dividends tend to play a subordinate role. Here I show you my shopping list and what my portfolio should look like in the future. The stocks I have already bought are marked with a green tick and without a tick, I'm still waiting ⏳
🤖TECH:
🏦💸FINANCE:
🏥🩻HEALTHCARE:
🏭🏗️INDUSTRIE & REST:
------------------------
this is my extended watchlist:
IN TECH:
RAMBUS $RMBS (+8.4%) , QNITY ELECTRONICS $Q (+5.56%) ,
INNODATA $INOD (+7.14%) , NETFLIX $NFLX (-2.76%) ,
VERTIV $VRT (+3.85%) , PALANTIR $PLTR (-0.64%) , VAT GROUP $VACN (+6.49%) , BROADCOM $AVGO (+4.43%) , AMADEUS IT $AMS (-2.03%) , DISCO CORP $6146 (+7.17%) , A10 NETWORKS $ATEN (+4.38%) , RORZE $6323 , CAMTEK $CAMT (+7.44%)
FINANCE:
APOLLO GLOBAL $APO (-2.02%) / BLACKSTONE $BX (-3.02%) , ALLIANZ $ALV (+1.09%) , FIRSTCASH $FCFS (-1.73%) , BLACKROCK $BLK (+1.35%) SKYWARD SPECIALITY INSURANCE $SKWD , VERISK ANALYTICS $VRSK (-5.68%) PRIMERICA $PRI (-1.42%) , ERIE INDEMNITY $ERIE (-6.45%)
HEALTHCARE:
MERIT MEDICAL SYSTEMS $MMSI (-1.42%) , REGENERON PHARM $REGN (+0.6%) , UFP TECHNOLOGIES $UFPT (-1.26%) , COLLEGIUM PHARM $COLL (-3.79%) , LIGAND PHARM $LGND (+0%) , HOYA CORP $7741 (+1.17%) , SHIONOGI $4507 (+1.84%) , IRADIMED $IRMD (-0.61%)
REST:
MISUMI GROUP $9962 (+4.85%) , KANEMATSU $8020 (+2.68%) , APPLIED INDUSTRIAL TECH $AIT (-0.72%) , BADGER METER $BMI (-3.52%) , CEMENT ROADSTONE HOLDING $CRH (-3.85%) , KADANT $KAI (-0.75%) , INTERTEK GROUP $ITRK (+0.55%) , IDEX CORP $IEX (+1.32%) , ORLA MINING $OLA (+2.17%) , NEWMARKET CORP $NEU (+7.25%) , ROTORK $ROR (-0.43%) , POWER INTEGRATION $POWI (+7.69%) , LINDE $LIN (-1.46%) , GAZTRANSPORT & TECHNIGAZ $GTT (+2.47%)
This is not yet my final stock selection/watchlist. Of course, there can always be changes if, for example, the @Tenbagger2024 continues to present such undiscovered gems 🙏🏽🧐
------------------------
What should the sector/country weighting look like?
Let's start with the "desired"
🌍country weighting:
🇺🇸🇨🇦USA ~60%
🇪🇺EUROPA ~20%
🇯🇵JAPAN/ASIA ~15%
Rest ~5%
Sector weighting should be as follows:
💻TECHNOLOGY: ~30-35%
💸FINANCE: ~ 20-25%
HEALTHCARE: ~ 10-15%
🏭INDUSTRY: ~ 10-15%
REST: ~ 5-10%
So, what has happened since the beginning of the year?
Of course there were no sales 😬
There have been a few purchases where I have a finger in the pie.
JANUARY PURCHASES
$INTU (-7.66%)
$GRAB (+0.07%)
$NOW (-5.47%)
$MSFT (+10.39%)
FEBRUARY PURCHASES
$NOW (-5.47%)
$INTU (-7.66%)
$SPGI (-2.98%)
$SNPS (-1.59%)
$CSU (-5.33%)
$SOFI (+4.1%)
$CRWD (-0.93%)
MARCH PURCHASES
$MUV2 (-0.08%)
$3064
$8001 (-0.78%)
$6861 (+6.48%)
$DB1 (-2.1%)
$V (-2.48%)
$HLI (-8.32%)
$MSFT (+10.39%)
$CTAS (-5.22%)
$MELI (-1.25%)
$BN (-0.33%)
$PGHN (-0.77%)
$BR (-6.21%)
Due to the global political situation - especially because of this 🍊 in the White House, whose tweets cause more tsunamis 🌊than real natural disasters - and the current drawdown in the S&P 500 (which is very convenient for me right now and gives me a lot of pleasure 🤩), I am accordingly under water💦🫧 with some of my purchases so far.
but hey, we're investing for the long term, aren't we? So easy going, all relaxed 🥱 I will most likely not make any more purchases in the next few days or weeks, park my cash position elsewhere or put it in overnight money and wait and see which zone the market settles in or wait for it to stabilize.
What do you have on your watchlist?
Are you currently waiting or how are you dealing with the current situation?
@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin
@Tenbagger2024
@Max095 and of course all other members
Ok, that's enough now 😂
that's it from me for now ✌️
your stock master
Reading time: approx. 10min
1) INTRODUCTION
Since 2023 at the latest and the rapid rise of Nvidia $NVDA (+1.99%) semiconductors and "AI chips" in particular have been the talk of the town. Since then, investors have been chasing after almost every company that has something to do with the production of chips, driving share prices to unimagined heights. However, hardly any investors really know how complex the value chain is within the production of modern chips.
In this article, I will give you an overview of the entire production process and the companies involved. Even if many of you have a vague idea that the production of modern chips is complex, you will certainly be surprised by how complex it really is in reality.
2) BASIC
The starting point for every chip are so-called wafers [1] - i.e. thin wafers, which usually consist of so-called high-purity monocrystalline silicon. In the field of power semiconductors, which primarily comprises chips for applications with higher currents and voltages, silicon carbide (SiC) or galium nitride (GaN) has recently also been used as the base material for the wafers.
In the so-called front end the actual core components of the chips - the so-called dies - are created and applied to the wafers. The dies are rectangular structures that contain the actual functionality of the later chip. The finished dies are then tested for their functionality and electrical properties. Each die that is found to be good is then integrated into the so-called backend where the individual dies are separated on the wafer. This is followed by the so-called packaging. The individual dies from the front end are then electrically contacted and integrated into a protective housing. In the end, this housing with the contacted die is what is usually called the chip chip.
Now that we have a rough overview of the overall process, let's take a closer look at the individual processes involved in producing the dies on the wafer. This is the area in which most highly complex machines are used and which is usually the most sensitive.
3) FROM SAND TO WAFER
Before wafers made of high-purity silicon can even be produced and the actual process for manufacturing dies can begin, the actual wafer must first be manufactured in almost perfect quality. To do this, quartz sand, which consists largely of silicon dioxide, is reduced with carbon at high temperatures. This produces so-called raw siliconwhich, with a purity of around 96%, is not yet anywhere near the quality required for the production of wafers.
In several chemical processes, which are carried out by Wacker Chemie
$WCH (-0.93%) or Siltronic
$WAF (+9.49%) are used to turn the "impure" silicon into so-called polycrystalline silicon with a purity of 99.9999999%. For every billion silicon atoms, there is then only one foreign atom in the silicon. However, this pure polycrystalline silicon is still not suitable for the production of wafers, as the crystal structure in the silicon is not uniform enough. In order to create the right crystal structure, the polycrystalline silicon is then melted again and a so-called ingotwhich is made from monocrystalline silicon is produced. A comparison between raw silicon and the ingot can be found in the following image [3]:
This ingot is then sawn into thin slices, which are then the final wafers for semiconductor production. The best-known wafer producers are Shin Etsu
$4063, (+6.61%)
Siltronic or GlobalWafers
$6488.
4) FROM THE WAFER TO THE DIE
The wafers described in the previous section can now be used to produce dies. The overall process for producing dies basically consists of applying a large number of layers using various chemical, mechanical and physical processes. The overall process (depending on the product) takes approx. 80 different layers on the wafer, requiring almost 1000 different process steps and 3 months
non-stop production are required [4].
A macroscopic analogy is useful here, which I have also taken from [4]. You can compare the overall process for producing dies with baking a large multi-layer cake. This cake has 80 layers and the recipe for baking it consists of 1000 steps. It takes 3 months to make the cake and if even one layer of the cake deviates from the recipe by more than 1%, the whole cake collapses and has to be thrown away.
In the first process steps, the wafer is covered with billions tiny little transistors are created on the wafer, which are then all individually electrically contacted in the following steps. The final steps consist of electrically connecting the transistors to each other, resulting in a complete electrical circuit [4]:
Each individual layer of the approximately 80 layers in the die requires highly specialized processes, which can be roughly summarized as:
Apply masks
Ultimately, a mask can be thought of as an enlarged copy of the structure of a special layer in the die. These so-called photomasks are then scanned using so-called scanners or steppers "copied" in reduced size onto the wafer. The best-known manufacturer of such lithography systems is ASML
$ASML (+6.5%). It is currently the only producer of lithography systems that make it possible to produce structures smaller than 10 nanometers on the wafer. In today's powerful and modern chips, such as those found in smartphones, AI chips and processors, the smallest structures are around 3 nanometers in size. Other manufacturers of lithography systems for larger structures (10nm and larger) are Canon Electronics
$7739 or Nikon $7731 (-1.45%) .
The photomasks - i.e. the enlarged "copies" of the structures - are produced by companies such as Toppan $7911 (+6.61%) , Dai Nippon Printing
$7912 (+1.25%) or Hoya $7741 (+1.17%) manufactured. Systems for cleaning the photomasks or for applying the photoresist are produced, for example, by Suss Microtec
$SMHN (+6.56%) for example.
Apply/remove/modify/clean material
As can be seen in the overview above, there are a variety of methods and processes for modifying the material of a particular layer. As a result, there is a lot of different equipment that can handle a process very well with incredible specialization. The best-known and most successful equipment manufacturers include Applied Materials $AMAT (+12.6%), LAM Research
$LRCX (+12.83%), Tokyo Electron (TEL)
$8035, (+16.85%)
Suss Mictrotec, Entegris
$ENTG (+13.14%) and Axcelis $ACLS (+13.3%).
The material - for example, highly specialized chemicals - is of course also required for production. Companies such as Linde
$LIN (-1.46%), Air Liquide
$AI (+0.43%), Air Products
$APD (+1.6%) and Nippon Sanso
$4091 (+0.87%) are major manufacturers of process gases such as nitrogen, hydrogen and argon.
Inspect
As mentioned, every single layer in the manufacturing process of a die must be perfect in order to obtain a functional die at the end. Any small deviation or foreign particles can impair the functionality of the die. As the function of the die can only be checked precisely on the finished die, it is advantageous to inspect the individual layers for defects and deviations during production. Special machines are required for this, which must be able to do different things depending on the layer. Manufacturers of such machines include KLA
$KLAC (+8.75%) or Onto Innovation
$ONTO (+13.67%).
The following applies to almost all of the companies mentioned in this section: the companies are highly specialized and have quasi-monopolies on the machines for certain process steps. quasi-monopolies. Suitable equipment therefore usually costs several million dollars. In addition, some of the systems are so complex that they can only be maintained by the manufacturer's own service staff, which ensures recurring service revenue for every machine sold. As a rule, each machine requires several highly specialized engineers to ensure long-term stable operation.
5) FROM THE DIE TO THE FINISHED CHIP
Once the wafer has been processed, the dies on the wafer are checked for functionality. There is highly specialized equipment for this, so-called probers. These probers test each individual chip several times, if necessary, to check the functionality implemented in the design. Manufacturers of such probers include Teradyne $TER (+13.44%), Keysight Technologies
$KEYS (+4.44%), Onto Innovation or Tokyo Electron. These probers have to control each individual die, some of which are only a few square millimetres in size, and contact the corresponding much smaller test structures with tiny needles. The testing process is sometimes outsourced to entire companies that offer die testing as a complete package. One example of such providers is Amkor Technology
$AMKR (+11.82%).
The processed and tested wafer is now sawn to obtain individual dies. The dies that are found to be good are then integrated into a protective housing in the backend. The dies that have not passed the functionality test are either sorted out or (depending on the error pattern) processed as a variant with reduced functionality similar to those with full functionality. After a final functional test in the package, the chip is ready for use.
6) FOUNDRIES, FABLESS & SOFTWARE
Now that we have an overview of the complex process of manufacturing a chip, let's zoom out a little further to understand which companies perform which tasks in the semiconductor industry.
It's funny that not once in the manufacturing process has the name Nvidia $NVDA (+1.99%) or Apple $AAPL (-2.53%) has been mentioned? Yet they have the most advanced chips, don't they?
The pure production of the chips is done by other companies - so-called foundries. Companies like Nvidia and even AMD $AMD (+14.5%) are in fact fablessThis means that they do not have their own production facilities but only supply the chip design and let the foundries manufacture the actual chip according to their design.
The design of a chip is like the blueprint for production - the foundries then take over the recipe creation and the actual production. There is special software for designing chips. Companies known for this software include Cadance Design
$CDNS (-1.23%) and Synopsys $SNPS (-1.59%). But also the industrial giant Siemens
$SIE (+3.78%) now also supplies software for designing integrated circuits. Synopsys also offers other software for data analysis within foundry production.
Speaking of foundries; the best known foundry is probably TSMC
$TSM, (+6.94%) which is the global market leader in foundries. TSMC designs itself no chips itself and specializes exclusively in the production of the most advanced generations of chips. Another major player that also masters the most advanced structure sizes is Samsung $005930. In contrast to TSMC manufactures Samsung also produces its own designs. Other large foundries are Global Foundries
$GFS, (+5.9%) which was originally a spin-off from AMD and the Taiwanese company United Micro Electronics
$UMC. (+8.72%)
The best-known fabless companies - i.e. companies without their own chip production - are Nvidia, Apple, AMD, ARM Holdings
$ARM, (+6.74%)
Broadcom $AVGO (+4.43%), MediaTek $2454 and Qualcomm $QCOM. (+2.33%) In the meantime Alphabet $GOOGL, (-0.76%)
Microsoft $MSFT, (+10.39%)
Amazon $AMZN (+3.98%) and Meta $META (-1.19%) have designed their own chips for certain functionalities and then have them manufactured in foundries.
In addition to foundries and fabless companies, there are of course also hybrid models, i.e. companies that take on both production and design. The best-known examples of this are, of course, companies such as Intel
$INTC (+15.38%) and Samsung. There is also a whole range of so-called Integrated Device Manufacturer (IDM)which for the most part only manufacture their own designed chips and do not accept customer orders for production. Well-known companies such as Texas Instruments
$TXN, (+2.19%)
SK Hynix
$000660,
STMicroelectronics
$STMPA, (+8.11%)
NXP Semiconductors
$NXPI, (+2.12%)
Infineon $IFX (+10.28%) and Renesas $6723 (+9.14%) are among the IDMs.
FINAL WORD
The aim of this article was to provide an overview of the complexity of the semiconductor industry. I do not, of course no claim to be complete, as there are of course many other companies that are part of this value chain. As Getquin thrives on active exchange, I'll give you some food for thought to discuss in the comments below the article:
In general, I can recommend the 20-minute YouTube video at [4] to any interested reader. It provides an excellent animated overview of the manufacturing process of modern chips.
Stay tuned,
Yours RealMichaelScott
SOURCES:
[1] Wikipedia: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wafer
[2] https://www.halbleiter.org/waferherstellung/einkristall/
[3] https://solarmuseum.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/solarmuseum_org-07917.jpg
[4] Branch Education on YouTube: "How are Microchips Made?" https://youtu.be/dX9CGRZwD-w?si=xeV0TYgJ2iwNOKyO
Purchase of position 15 out of the targeted 20 positions in the end-of-year portfolio.
Hoya:
Not much to say really,
- Flies under the radar of most investors
- largest ophthalmic lens manufacturer in the world
- continue to order ophthalmic machines from us while USA and Europe are hesitant with new machines.
Investment philosophy, "diversification" and dividends
Hi all, as this is my first slightly larger post I would generally appreciate some constructive feedback.
First something About Me
I'll be 22 in a month and I've been active in the stock market for about 2 years now. After a lot of back and forth, I can almost say that I have tried every strategy - but I never really felt comfortable. One learns from mistakes, and I have made many of them.
But what I have also done is to spend countless hours, days and weeks with books, videos, shareholder letters and internet research. I was particularly fascinated by the investment approaches of Terry Smith and the way of Joseph Carlson on Youtube.
My goal quickly became clear, I don't want to have thousands of companies in my portfolio that I don't know, understand or fully support. So an ETF focus was off the table.
Thereupon I built my own investment philosophy, which I would like to present to you in the following.
If you want to know more about me and my goals, there might be another article with a portfolio presentation soon :-)
First I would like to explain to you why I do not believe in diversification hold:
A quote from Warren Buffet is well known: "Diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you know what you are doing."
However, a quote from one of the world's best investors alone is unlikely to convince everyone. Studies also support Buffet's view. The advantages of diversification decrease very fast and the gap between market risk and total portfolio becomes minimal from a portfolio size of 20-25 companies - 25 companies give you all the advantages of diversification, more positions only worsen your performance and overview. (Figure 1)
Because concentration delivers better performance. Fund managers who concentrate their knowledge in a few companies deliver better results than more diversified managers. (Figure 2)
Investment philosophy
I want to outperform the market, so I look for the best companies. What makes good companies?
Companies with competitive advantages (moats) outperform the market (Figure 3), and they do so because they have high returns on capital. My first metric for evaluating quality of a company and with a high value in my company analysis is ROIC (Return on Capital Invested). I look for companies with at least 10% ROIC. (Figure 4) Furthermore I want high ROCE (Return on capital employed) and high ROA (Return on Assets) figures.
This directly eliminates some companies and also whole sectors, namely exactly those in which it is not worth to invest anyway. Why is this so?
There are sectors that historically outperform the market (Software, Consumer, Healthcare) - on which my focus is -, and sectors that consistently underperform and are not considered in my investment approach (Banking, Energy, Insurance, Mining, Utilities, Airlines) - just compare the sectors with the main index ;-)
Consumer goods, healthcare and software companies perform better because they generate sustained profits, so they remain profitable even during economic downturns. This allows for consistently high returns on capital.
Next, a look at the margin here I would like to see high Gross Margins >60%, which are also a good indicator of a competitive advantage, and a high Profit Margin, which is an indicator of the efficiency of a company's value creation. However, the most important margin for assessing profitability is the FCF margin.
A company's focus should be maximally on Free Cash Flow, we should invest in companies that are as profitable as possible. In the long run, the share price follows the Fcf/Share.
Beyond that I don't want any debt, any company with Debt/EBITDA > 3 flies right out, preferably anything less than 2.
In terms of growth, I look for stable and good EPS and revenue growth, but FCF growth has the highest priority.
The higher the better, the more important the key performance indicators are.
My minimum benchmarks for the most important metrics:
(Not all of my companies always meet every metric, but I have built my own score where a minimum score must be met and by score I set the "Conviction" to a company).
Buy & Hold and long-term investing outperforms
As long as a company continues to reinvest its capital at high returns there is no reason to sell. (Figure 5)
What about dividends?
Some of my companies pay a dividend, others don't - I don't put much emphasis on dividends, and will definitely not put bad companies in my portfolio just to get a payout in a given month ;) Dividends should be minimized if capital can be reinvested at high rates of return. At my young age and with a long term investment horizon the focus should be on yield, in old age I will also shift to dividends ;)
The most important thing to conclude: Invest in profitable companies that you UNDERSTAND
A few final tips:
My current investable universe:
$ADBE (-6.61%)
$NVO (-2.11%)
$CUV (-2.8%)
$CDNS (-1.23%)
$ASML (+6.5%)
$VRTX (-2.31%)
$V (-2.48%)
$MA (+0.81%)
$MSFT (+10.39%)
$QLYS (-0.02%)
$MKTX (+29.21%)
$KLAC (+8.75%)
$GOOGL (-0.76%)
$REG1V (-3.21%)
$TNE (+1.89%)
$ENX (-0.6%)
$EW (-0.25%)
$VRSN (-2.66%)
$FICO (-12.78%)
$FTNT (-8.72%)
$NEM (-13.35%)
$MONC (+1.47%)
$CSU (-5.33%)
$6861 (+6.48%)
$ENGH (-3.69%)
$MC (+0.3%)
$AAPL (-2.53%)
$6857 (+6.55%)
$7741 (+1.17%)
$PAYX (-6.4%)
$MTD (-1.98%)
$TXN (+2.19%)
$OR (+0.71%)
$ZTS (-3.03%) (Companies I watch, in my portfolio I have only 8 of them).
That's it from me for now. Please leave me some feedback and share the post if you like it :-)
What would you like to hear from me next? More about free cash flow? Portfolio presentation? Company presentation? My slightly different valuation approach, far away from P/E?
Some of the illustrations are from a slightly smaller fund ("Long Equity Investing" on Twitter - can only recommend you) or from Terry Smith's Shareholder Letter.
No investment advice
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