Uni Credit Stock Forum

Week in review 28.09.

New all-time highs for DAX, Dow Jones, S&P 500, Gold, GE Vernova, Meta, Netflix, SAP, Vistra Corp, Walmart 👑🥇 $LYY7 (-1.04%)
$CSPX (+1.03%)
$ABX (+0.47%)
$GEV (+2.57%)
$META (+0.4%)
$NFLX (+0.37%)
$SAP (-0.4%)
$VST (+5.85%)
$WMT (+1.81%)

New 52-week highs for 3M, Air Products, Alibaba, Arista Networks, Barrick Gold, Bank of Nova Scotia, BlackRock, Caterpillar, Constellation Energy, DuPont, HSBC, Infosys, Live Nation, McDonald's, Palantir, PayPal, Public Storage, Royal Bank of Canada, Royal Caribbean, Sea Ltd, Spotify, Tangier 💵📈 $PLTR (+5.8%)
$9988 (-5.04%)
$BABA (-5.18%)
$BLK
$CAT (-2.91%)
$BNS (+0.04%)
$STZ (+1.23%)
$DD (-2.43%)
$HSBA (-2.41%)
$HSBC (-2.53%)
$INFY
$LYV (+0.74%)
$MCD (+2.19%)$PUB
$PUB
$RCL (+2.93%)
$SEA (+0%)
$SKT (+0.98%)

Bitcoin with new 1-month high, +22% in three weeks since the low on 07.09. from 52k$ to 66k$, +150% in 12 months📉📈 $BTC (+0.47%)

PayPal's own stablecoin PYUSD (crypto) is growing strongly and is now one of the top 100 cryptos by market capitalization at 95th place 💰 $PYPL (+3%)

Palantir with inclusion in the S&P 500 on Monday #PLTRgang 🤜🤛👊✊ $PLTR (+5.8%)

Uber is working with Google's Waymo (Alphabet) and wants to offer robotaxis for a surcharge 🚗🤖 $UBER (-1.3%)
$GOOGL (-0.6%)
$GOOG (-0.66%)

After the ECB and FED, China has also turned on the money printer *brrr brrr*, plus a big economic stimulus program, China stocks therefore have their best week in 10 years, car and luxury stocks with Chinese business are therefore rising 🖨🇨🇳 $MC (-2.6%)
$P911 (-1.22%)
$BMW (-3.91%)
$MBG (-3.33%)

AMD CEO and Nvidia CEO confirm continued high demand for AI chips 🧠🤖, Nvidia CEO does not want to sell any more of his own shares for the time being. $AMD (-0.12%)
$NVDA (-0.03%)

Upcoming Playstation 6 with AMD chip again, but AMD will leave the high-end graphics card market for PC gamers and try to scale more strongly in the mid and lower segments. Nvidia would then have a monopoly 🎮 $SONY (+10.09%)
$6758 (+9.38%)

Super Micro suspected of accounting fraud. US justice is apparently already investigating according to an insider, -62% share price in three months 🔍👮 $SMCI

AI needs a lot of electricity and nuclear power plants are being reactivated in the USA. In Germany, it's the other way around due to the world's stupidest energy policy. US electricity provider shares, uranium mines - shares and ETFs are rising. ⚛️⚡️ (see podcast episode 57 "Buy High. Sell Low." pinned to my profile at the top) $URNM
$URA (-0.7%)
$UEC (-0.03%)

Micron with good quarterly figures and +13% share price, semiconductor stocks rally 💻📈 $MU (-0.29%)

Costco - quarterly figures mixed, EPS exceeds estimates but sales worse than expected, share price falls slightly 🛒 $COST (+3.88%)

McDonald's increases quarterly dividend by 6% to 1.77$. Since the first dividend payment in 1976, the payout has been increased 48 years in a row. 🍟🍔 $MCD (+2.19%)

Investigation initiated against Visa 💳 and SAP 💻 in the USA for illegal price fixing $V (+1.22%)
$SAP (-0.4%)

Oil price falls again, Shell & Co. on the way to 1-year low 🛢⛽️ $SHEL (-1.61%)
$GB00B03MM408
$RDS.A

Meta releases VR glasses Quest 3s for €330 from 15.10.24 📱👓

Intel launches AI accelerator "Gaudi 3" as an alternative to Nvidia's H100. IBM, Google & Dell as first customers. 🧠 $INTC (+0.53%)

US debt level climbs above 35 trillion dollars for the first time 🖨💵

Ubisoft share price collapses due to postponement of "Assassin's Creed: Shadows", -70% 1-year performance 🎮📉 $UBI (-0.06%)

DHL raises outlook / growth forecast until 2030 and increases letter postage by 10.5% in Germany from 2025 📦✉️📯 $DHL (+0.1%)

BASF struggles with high energy prices and weak demand, threat of plant closure and dividend cut 🇩🇪📉 $BAS (-5.27%)

Adidas (+28%) significantly better than Nike (-18%) since the beginning of the year ⚽️🏀👟 $ADS (-1.81%)
$NKE (+0.58%)

Takeover poker at Commerzbank by Ital. Unicredit continues 🏦🇮🇹🇩🇪 $CBK (-1.43%)
$UCG (-0.51%)

Jefferies issued a buy recommendation for BioNTech and sees the antibody BNT327 against cancer as a potential massive sales driver. 👨‍⚕️⚕️💊 $DE000A0V9BC4

Mutares -14% because shortseller Gotham City raises serious allegations against the SDAX member: Ponzi scheme, false accounting and circular business model 🔍👮 $MUX (-3.12%)

>> If you want to read a review like this every week, leave a like & subscribe. What important news have I forgotten? 👍❤️

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the most important dates for the coming week.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/98gSyf4ik54?si=lSB_tDY1ht0EYRQS

Monday:

Food prices are rising in China 🇨🇳 and thus increasing inflation. In the first few years after coronavirus, China even had problems with deflation. Even now, inflation is only 0.6%.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/inflation-anstieg-von-chinas-verbraucherpreisen-beschleunigt-sich/100067517.html

Tuesday:

Despite all the crises, more dividends will still be paid out in 2024. 92% of all companies worldwide are likely to increase their dividends. Overall, dividends paid out are likely to rise by 5% to 1.74 trillion US dollars worldwide. The 20 largest dividend payers worldwide in the second quarter include many German 🇩🇪Unternehmen $MBG (-3.33%) Mercedes (USD 6.1 billion),$ALV (-0.71%) Allianz (USD 5.8 billion), Deutsche Telekom (USD $DTE (+0.79%) Deutsche Telekom (USD 4.1 billion) and $BMW (-3.91%) BMW (USD 3.9 billion). The largest payout was made by $HSBA (-2.41%) HSBC (USD 11.7 billion). This is followed by the Swiss 🇨🇭Konzern $NESN (-0.22%) Nestlé (USD 8.7 billion).

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/anlagestrategie/aktien-das-sind-die-weltweit-groessten-dividendenzahler/100066172.html

The two tech companies $AAPL (+0.65%) Apple and $GOOGL (-0.6%) Alphabet must pay billions to the EU. Apple has now suffered a final defeat before the ECJ due to alleged state aid by Ireland. Apple now has to pay 13 billion euros in back taxes plus interest.

Alphabet also lost in court and has to pay a fine of 2.4 billion euros. The reason is that Alphabet probably favored its own price comparison service in search engine advertising.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/technik/it-internet/eugh-urteil-apple-muss-milliarden-an-steuern-zurueckzahlen/100067907.html

https://www.handelsblatt.com/technik/it-internet/eugh-urteil-europaeischer-gerichtshof-bestaetigt-milliardenstrafe-fuer-google/100067884.html

$BMW (-3.91%) BMW cuts its targets and recalls 1.5 million cars. The main reason is probably faulty parts from suppliers. BMW is therefore focusing more on monitoring and training suppliers. Instead of 8 - 10 % profit margin, the target is now 6 - 7 %.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/bmw-autobauer-ruft-bis-zu-15-millionen-autos-zurueck-und-kassiert-gewinnziel/100067982.html

$VOW (-2.5%) VW unilaterally cancels the job guarantee. The termination letters for six collective agreements were handed over to IG-Metall Lower Saxony and Saxony-Anhalt today. Dismissals for operational reasons are possible from July 1, 2025. Previously, job guarantees were in place until 2029, with VW justifying the end with excessively high costs in Germany, which are no longer competitive.

https://www.bild.de/politik/inland/vw-streicht-job-garantie-zum-ende-des-jahres-neue-details-zum-sparhammer-66e0551cd007b74a58276877

Wednesday:

Heated debate between Trump and Harris. Trump is directly convicted several times by the moderators with false statements. Immediately after the debate, Taylor Swift also speaks out in favor of Harris.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/tv-duell-vor-us-wahl-donald-trump-und-kamala-harris-liefern-sich-eine-hitzige-debatte/100068156.html

Major insider purchase at $HFG (+1.98%) Hellofresh, CEO Dominik Richter buys shares for more than 10 million euros.

https://www.boerse.de/nachrichten/EQS-DD-HelloFresh-SE-DSR-Ventures-GmbH-Kauf/36459409

There are many indications of an attempted takeover of $CBK (-1.43%) Commerzbank by $UCG (-0.51%) Unicredit buys directly from the German state for more than 700 million euros.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/banken-versicherungen/banken/banken-unicredit-steigt-bei-der-commerzbank-ein/100068216.html

Inflation in the USA falls to 2.5% shortly before the Fed meeting and is thus approaching the 2.0% target. Experts had only expected a fall to 2.6%. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) remained at 3.2%. This should make it clear that the Fed is lowering interest rates. However, the amount of the cut is still unclear.

https://www.manager-magazin.de/finanzen/us-inflation-flaut-vor-zinswende-der-federal-reserve-ab-a-06c3e4b5-6579-43f5-917d-f860239c69ca

Thursday:

The ECB cuts the key interest rate by 25 basis points, which is in line with expectations. As a result, there has hardly been any impact on the stock market so far.

https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/europaeische-zentralbank-ezb-senkt-leitzins-auf-3-50-prozent-a-3fcb19ed-950f-413c-b21f-d7c25a36f31d

Producer prices in the US have risen slightly more than expected. However, the previous month's data was revised downwards slightly. Compared to the same month last year, producer prices rose by 1.7%. Producer prices are a leading indicator for the inflation rate in around 3 months' time.

https://www.ariva.de/news/usa-anstieg-der-erzeugerpreise-schwcht-sich-ab-11369313

Friday:

More and more market participants are expecting a large rate cut of 50 basis points at the Fed decision next week. In the meantime, 47% of interest rate traders believe a rate cut of half a percentage point is likely. If this is indeed the case, there is further upside potential for the markets. On the other hand, if this does not happen, there could be a major sell-off. This decision is therefore likely to move the markets in any case.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/anlagestrategie/trends/zinswende-steigende-wetten-auf-grossen-fed-zinsschritt-bewegen-die-maerkte/100068927.html

Most important dates in the coming week:

Tuesday: 11:00 ZEW Economic Sentiment (DE)

Wednesday: 20:00 Fed interest rate decision (USA)

Thursday: 13:00 BoE interest rate decision (UK)

Commerzbank shares recorded a strong double-digit rise after CEO Manfred Knof announced that he would not be renewing his contract, which could trigger strategic changes.

Italian bank UniCredit also acquired new shares in Commerzbank, which is seen as potentially paving the way for closer cooperation between the two institutions. There is also speculation about a possible merger between Commerzbank and UniCredit.

This move towards a possible merger could have a significant impact on the shareholding of the Federal Republic of Germany, which held around 15.6% of Commerzbank but has reduced its stake by around 4%.

https://www.finanzen.net/nachricht/aktien/fuehrungswechsel-commerzbank-aktie-springt-zweistellig-an-commerzbank-chef-knof-plant-keine-vertragsverlaengerung-unicredit-steigt-ein-13834082

$UCG (-0.51%)
$CBK (-1.43%)

#news
#stocks

UniCredit ($UCG (-0.51%)) has decided to take legal action against claims made by the ECB to reduce its Russian business. Russian business business in Russia.

The ECB had demanded that UniCredit ($UCG (-0.51%)) and Raiffeisen Bank International ($RBI (-1.7%)) set detailed targets for the withdrawal from Russia. These targets required UniCredit to present a strategic plan, which has not yet been submitted. To date, the ECB's focus has been on RBIwhich had originally planned to realize its profits from Russia through a Strabag ($STR (-2.02%)) share swap deal to Vienna. However, this plan was abandoned after the company involved was placed on the sanctions list.

UniCredit is the second largest company after RBI the second largest representative of Western banks in Russia. Since March 2022 the bank has increased its cross-border business by 91% and its domestic business by 65% reduced. UniCredit CEO Andrea Orcel already emphasized at the beginning of the war that he was not prepared to give up the Russian business. The ECB has not yet commented on the legal dispute. The proceedings could drag on for several months, with court decisions possibly only being made years later. However, this could be problematic as the targets set by the ECB by 2026 are to be achieved. Orcel received support from the Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajaniwho emphasized that the ECB should act in accordance with the EU sanctions and that hasty decisions could harm Italian and EU companies.

UniCredit ($UCG (-0.51%) ) plans to increase the total amount of its bonus pool after a record bonus pool for last year by around 16% increase.

Lower-ranking employees can expect greater gains than key risk takers and top managers, as part of the commitment bank's commitment to rewarding its "frontline" employees.

CEO Andrea Orcel wants to reward employees and retain talent after shares almost doubled last year. doubled in the last year.

Economy on 23.02.2023...

Many numbers and Indexänderungen⤵️

Yesterday, after-hours, some numbers came in. I will go into more detail in a moment. Most important was each the FED protocol. There was then again clear that further interest rate hikes will come. These are then also announced in the next Fed meeting. On it, the stock market has also reacted slightly. Let's see if the impact continues today. Actually, it was nothing new. Otherwise, the markets start today relatively friendly. Also in the crypto sector, we had only 3 steps forward, then in recent days again 2 steps back and now again 3 steps forward? On the stock market you learn especially that 2+2=4 is not true, but 2-1+2-1+2=4!

On Monday some changes in the Indizies stand to. here times in the overview, which happens:

DAX

RECORD: $CBK (-1.43%) Commerzbank

EXCEPTION: $LIN Linde

MDAX

UPDATE: $NDX1 (-0.04%) Nordex

OUTPUT: $CBK (-1.43%) Commerzbank

SDAX

RECORD: $DBAN (-1.51%) Deutsche Beteiligungs AG OUTPUT: $NDX1 (-0.04%) Nordex

EURO-STOXX-50:

RECORD: $UCG (-0.51%) Unicredit

OUTPUT: $LIN Linde

STOXX-50

RECORD: $SAF (-1.34%) Saffron

OUTPUT: $LIN Linde

STOXX-Europe 600

RECORD: $SINCH (-3.85%) Sinch

OUTPUT: $LIN Linde

Then there were some very interesting figures to report. I'll list the most important ones here:

$NVDA (-0.03%)
Nvidia:

reported 4th Quarter January 2023 earnings of $0.88 per share. The consensus earnings estimate was $0.81 per share on revenue of $6.0 billion. The Earnings Whisper number was $0.85 per share.

$ETSY (+0.18%)
Etsy:

Missed analyst estimates of $0.80 in the fourth quarter with earnings per share of $0.77. Revenue of $807.2 million exceeded expectations of $754.31 million.

$EBAY (+0.56%)
eBay:

Beats fourth-quarter analyst estimates of $1.06 with earnings per share of $1.07. Revenue of $2.5 billion beats expectations of $2.46 billion.

$INTC (+0.53%)
Intel:

Lowers quarterly dividend to 12.5 cents (previously: 36.5 cents, analyst forecast: 36.5 cents) and reaffirms Q1 guidance.

$GRMN (+1.79%)
Garmin Ltd:

Surpassed analyst estimates of $1.19 in fourth-quarter earnings per share of $1.35. Revenue of $1.31 billion beat expectations of $1.3 billion.

$OSTK (+4.33%)
Overstock.com Inc:

Missed analyst estimates of $0.03 in the fourth quarter with earnings per share of -$0.04. Revenue of $404.89 million below expectations of $448.92 million (competes with Home24 and HomeDepot)

$SM (+1%)
M Energy:

Beat analyst estimates of $1.25 in the fourth quarter with earnings per share of $2.09. Revenue of $671.32 million exceeded expectations of $572.52 million.

$UNITY (+0%)
Unity Software:

Beat analyst estimates of $0.01 in the fourth quarter with earnings per share of $0.03. Revenue of $451 million beat expectations of $434.7 million (Was always a favorite for me for WEB3)

$TDOC (-1.59%)
Teladoc Health:

Beat analyst estimates of -$0.25 in the fourth quarter with earnings per share of -$0.23. Revenue of $637.7m exceeded expectations of $633.4m.

$O2D (+0.24%)
Telefónica Germany:

Posts Q4 revenues of €2.2 billion (PY: €2.06 billion, analyst forecast: €2.1 billion), Ebitda (adjusted) of €667 million (PY: €624 million, forecast: €644 million) and net income of €125 million (PY: €67 million, forecast: €19 million). Proposed dividend for 2022 of €0.18 per share (PY: €0.18). In the outlook for 2023, Telefónica Deutschland expects revenue growth in the low single-digit percentage range, an investment ratio of 14% (PY: 14.7%) and Ebitda growth in the low single-digit percentage range.

Today mostly German/EU numbers are coming but what I'm also interested in is Alibaba!!! These usually come around noon.

Japan stock market holiday

Economic data (abbreviated version)

08:00

• DE: Development of energy prices 2022

11:00

• EU: Consumer prices January Eurozone PROGNOSIS: -0.2% yoy/+8.6% yoy Previous estimate: -0.4% yoy/+8.5% yoy Previous: -0.4% yoy/+9.2% yoy Core rate PROGNOSIS: +5.2% yoy Previous estimate: -0.8% yoy/+5.2% yoy Previous: +0.6% yoy/+5.2% yoy

12:00

• DE: ECB, publication of 2022 balance sheet

14:30

• US: GDP (2nd release) 4Q annualized PROGNOSIS: +2.9% yoy 1st release: +2.9% yoy 3rd quarter: +3.2% yoy GDP deflator PROGNOSIS: +3.5% yoy 1st release: +3.5% yoy 3rd quarter: +4.4% yoy
• US: Initial jobless claims (week) PROGNOSIS: 197,000 previous: 194,000

Quarterly figures / Company dates USA / Asia

22:05 Booking Holdings quarterly results

No time stated: Moderna | Alibaba quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / company dates Europe

07:00 Deutsche Telekom | Gerresheimer

07:00 Heidelbergcement | Knorr-Bremse

07:00 Vitesco | Axa | Essilor-Luxottica | Krones

07:30 Dürr | Hensoldt | Munich Re | Telefonica

07:30 Auto1 | Indus Holding | Bouygues

07:45 Eni SpA Annual Results and Capital Markets Day with Presentation of Strategic Plan 2023-2026

08:00 New Work | Anglo American| Wintershall Dea

08:00 BAE Systems | Rolls-Royce Annual Results

15:00 Hochtief annual results (3 p.m. BI-PK)

18:00 Freenet Annual Results

18:05 Saint-Gobain annual result

No time stated: Valeo | Annual results

#quartalszahlen
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#börse
#aktien
#news
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#community
#communityfeedback
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#täglich
#investieren
#wirtschaft
#politik
#inflation
#fed
#rezession
#mitverstandzumkapital
#krypto
#kryptowährung
#kryptos
#cryptos
#nvidia
#etsy
#ebay
#münchnerrück
#deutschetelekom
#alibaba
#bookingcom
#bookingholdings
#intel
#garmin
#unity

𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗡𝗲𝘄𝘀 🗞️

𝗦𝗰𝗵𝘄𝗮𝗰𝗵𝗲 𝗘𝗿𝘄𝗮𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗻 / 𝗠𝗮𝗴𝗻𝗲𝘀𝗶𝘂𝗺𝗺𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝗹 / 𝗥𝗶𝗽𝗽𝗹𝗲 - 𝘀𝗰𝗵𝗹𝗲𝗰𝗵𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗩𝗲𝗿𝗹𝗶𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗿

𝗜𝗣𝗢𝘀 🔔

Volvo - Expectations of proceeds from the IPO of Volvo Cars had to be lowered. Proceeds from the IPO were expected to reach 25 billion kroner, but now the expectations of the subsidiary of Chinese car company Geely ($GRU (-0.66%)) have been downgraded to 20 billion kroner (2 billion euros). The first day of trading is scheduled for this Friday (October 29).

𝗘𝘅-𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 📅

Starting today, Apogee Enterprises Inc. ($ANP (+3.88%)), Carpenter Technology Corporation ($XTY (+1.85%)), Codorus Valley Bancorp Inc. ($CVLY), Fastenal Company ($FAS (-0.16%)) and Royal Bank Of Canada ($RYC (-0.13%)) are trading ex-dividend.

𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗹𝘀𝘇𝗮𝗵𝗹𝗲𝗻 📈

Today, Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc ($A6W (+1.14%)), Galp Energia ($GZ5 (-1.05%)), Facebook Inc. ($FB2A (+0.4%)), HSBC Holdings plc ($HBC1 (-2.41%)), Icade SA ($3IC (+2.34%)), Kimberly-Clark Corp. ($KMY (+1.82%)), Magnitogorsk Iron & Steel Works ($MHQ), Orange Polska S.A. ($TPA1 (+0.29%)), Packaging Corp. of America ($PKA (+1.24%)), SSAB ($SKWC (-3.42%)) and Universal Health Services Inc. ($UHS (+0.52%)) presented their figures.

𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 🏛️

Monte dei Paschi di Siena - Italy's nationalized bank is in crisis, but a planned sale to rival UniCredit ($CRIN (-0.51%)) has fallen through. Mainly due to the different valuations of the parts of MPS up for sale by UniCredit and the Ministry of Finance, no agreement could be reached. UniCredit arrived at a valuation of 1.3 billion euros, while the Ministry of Finance assumed 3.6 to 4.8 billion euros. Now Italy must find another way to save the bank.

Auto industry - In addition to chips, magnesium bottlenecks are now also hitting the German auto industry. Magnesium is needed above all for aluminum alloying. The reason for this supply shortage is the energy-saving measures in China, as a result of which magnesium production has been greatly reduced.

The Chinese market share of 95% of the European magnesium supply is problematic. Some companies only have magnesium stocks until November, so experts are warning of a possible production stop.

𝗖𝗿𝘆𝗽𝘁𝗼 💎

eNaira - Nigerian president unveils central bank's digital currency eNeira. Due to delays, the unveiling of the central bank digital currency (CBDC) is almost a month late. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) now considers itself ready to launch it. Overall, the CBN is working on a global cryptocurrency that will be used as a means of payment in addition to cash. On October 2, the Federal High Court of Nigeria already approved the CBDC as legal tender.

XRP ($XRP-USD (+0.83%)) - Brad Garlinghouse, the CEO of Ripple, the company behind the cryptocurrency XRP, is sharply critical of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The company has been in a legal dispute with the latter for almost a year. Garlinghouse goes on to argue that unequal treatment of cryptocurrencies by the SEC has led to Ethereum growing to become the second largest cryptocurrency after bitcoin. He said, "In the last couple of years, XRP was the second most valuable digital asset. When it became clear that the SEC had given ETH a pass, ETH obviously really exploded and that clarity helped."

So far, there is no end in sight to the said legal battle. XRP is currently in 7th place with a market cap of $51.3 billion.

Bitcoin ($BTC-EUR (+0.47%)) - Other Bitcoin ETFs from Valkyrie, Van Eck & Invesco. Valkyrie's ETF has the acronym BTFD, which alludes to the, especially in the crypto scene, well-known saying "Buy the fucking Dip".