$SZG (+3.82%)
$HYQ (-0.15%)
$ABX (+2.07%)
$BBAI (+9.28%)
$PLUG (+4.2%)
$GPRO (+2.27%)
$TEG (+0.39%)
$1SXP (+4%)
$SE (+1.04%)
$ETOR (+1.48%)
$NCH2 (+2.78%)
$TUI1 (-0.71%)
$VWS (+2.26%)
$R3NK (+0.53%)
$EOAN (+0.05%)
$CSCO (+3.81%)
$SLI (+4.89%)
$HFG (-1.75%)
$HTG (+1.8%)
$HLAG (-1.82%)
$TKA (+2.14%)
$DOU (+0.12%)
$RWE (-0.32%)
$BIRK (-3.85%)
$9618 (-0.43%)
$DE (+1.53%)
$FR (+6.26%)
$NU (+1.04%)

YTD return:

🥇 Gold: ≈ +39.1 %

🥈 Silver: ≈ +24.7 %

🥉 Copper: ≈ +20.6 %

⚗️ Palladium: ≈ +34.5 %

💎 Platinum: ≈ +45.4 %

🥇Gold:

📈Chart technicals: The uptrend is running in a clean rising weekly channel.

The all-time high at 3 500 $/oz (22 Apr.) is intact; setbacks to the 50-day EMA (~3 300 $) were absorbed each time.

Primary support zone: 3 200 - 3 100 $ - the previous breakout level. RSI > 60 confirms bullish momentum.

ℹ️Fundamental Driver No. 1: Central bank buying.

In 2025, the official sector is again targeting ≈ 1,000 t - the 4th year in a row of massive purchases, driven by de-dollarization and geopolitical hedging.

🥈Silver:

📈Chart technicals:

Despite +25% YTD, the price is still ~30% below the historic peak of $49. The multi-decade cup-and-handle formation is approaching the neckline at 36 - 37 $; a significant weekly close above it could activate a target above 75 $. Short-term supports: $34.8 (May breakout level) and $32.

ℹ️Fundamental Driver No. 1: Supply deficit.

The World Silver Survey reports a shortfall of 149 Moz in 2024; a further 118 Moz is expected in 2025 - largely due to solar and e-mobility demand, while 70% of production is by-product.

🥉Copper:

📈Chart technicals:

On July 8, the "blue-sky breakout" to 12 526 $/t (5.68 $/lb) took place. Volume spike and weekly RSI > 70 confirm strength. The former top band 10 500 - 10 800 $/t now serves as key support; a retest to ~11 000 $ would be technically sound without breaking the uptrend.

ℹ️Fundamental driver no. 1: Structural scarcity.

UNCTAD warns: By 2030, around 80 new mines and $ 250 bn CapEx would be needed to meet demand from the energy transition, data centers and e-mobility - otherwise the market deficit will persist.

This is where I am currently positioned:

🥇Gold:

$EWG2 (+0.33%)

$IGLN (+0.97%)

$SPGP (+3.19%)

$GDXJ (+3.74%)

$BTO (+2.26%)

$FF (+2.87%)

🥈Silver:

$PHAG (+3.6%)

$FR (+6.26%)

🥉Copper:

$COPA (+1.6%)

$HBM (+5.36%)

$ATYM (+4.39%)

❓Do you see a continuation of the bull market in metals and are you positioned accordingly?

$FR (+6.26%)
broke out above the 200-week SMA today with massive buying volume.

Here is a possible trading idea to bet on a continuation of the silver rally with this mining stock.

This is not investment advice and is merely my personal opinion and trading idea. Everyone must make their own investment decisions and assess the associated risk themselves.

Trading in shares, especially in the commodities sector, can be subject to high fluctuations in value.

👉 Please DYOR (Do Your Own Research)!

🔍 Technical setup:

• Breakout above the 200-week SMA (white line)
• Volume support at a high level
• Horizontal level (~6.50-7.00 USD) was overcome with momentum
• Volume profile shows high interest in this zone → former resistance = potential new support

📈 Trade idea (swing trade on a weekly basis):

🟢 Entry

• Current price (~ USD 8.15) conceivable after breakout, but aggressive.
• Conservative: Wait for a setback to the breakout level ~ USD 7.20-7.50 (pullback to SMA200 or horizontal zone)

🟡 Stop loss

• Below the breakout zone:
• ~6.20-6.50 USDdepending on risk appetite and position size
• Alternatively: below the last weekly lows

🟢 Target zones (take profit)

Short-term (~10.50-11.00 USD): Last swing high range (2022/2023)

Medium/long-term (~13.00-15.00 USD): Consolidation zone from 2021

Bull case (~19.00-21.00 USD): Breakout from multi-year range

⚖️ Risk-reward ratio (CRV)

Example at entry 7.50 USD:

• SL at USD 6.20 (risk: USD 1.30)
• TP1 at USD 11.00 (opportunity: USD 3.50)
• → CRV: approx. 2.7:1

📌 Notes:

• AG is a very volatile silver share, reacts strongly to the silver price.
• Look at the silver future (XAG/USD) - a parallel breakout there increases the validity.
• For speculative trades, always adjust the position size to the risk.

Apart from the current standard reasons "geopolitical uncertainties, expectations of interest rate cuts, weakening US dollar", I can't think of any 🤷‍♂️

$PHAG (+3.6%)

$IGLN (+0.97%)

$EWG2 (+0.33%)

$SPGP (+3.19%)

$GDXJ (+3.74%)

$FR (+6.26%)

$FF (+2.87%)

$BTO (+2.26%)

06.09.2024

TESLA at the top of the NASDAQ-100 + C3.ai has to cut spending + Further acquisition in the precious metals sector + Major orders from the USA for headlight specialist Hella

TESLA $TSLA (+0.89%) at the top of the NASDAQ-100 - Climbing well above the 50-day line

C3.ai $AI (+2.21%) fell 19% after the AI software company missed estimates for quarterly subscription revenue as companies cut back on spending amid economic uncertainties.

First Majestic $FR (+6.26%) are pleased to announce that they have entered into a definitive merger agreement pursuant to which First Majestic will acquire all of the issued and outstanding common shares of Gatos. Gatos is a leading silver producer with a 70% interest in the Los Gatos joint venture, which owns the producing Cerro Los Gatos underground silver mine in Chihuahua, Mexico.

The headlamp specialist Hella $HLE (-0.7%) has received orders for electronics and lighting projects in the USA worth more than two billion euros. The company, which has been part of the French automotive supplier Forvia since the beginning of 2022, announced that series production for the unspecified US car manufacturer will start in Mexico within two to four years. For comparison: Hella is targeting currency and portfolio-adjusted Group sales of between around 8.1 and 8.6 billion euros in 2024.

Friday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

ex-dividend of individual stocks

Bank of America USD 0.26

PepsiCo 1.36 USD

Booking Holdings USD 8.75

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

/

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

10:20 PSI Software Half-year figures

Economic data

• 08:00 DE: Trade balance July Trade balance calendar and seasonally adjusted FORECAST: +20.6 billion euros previously: +20.4 billion euros Exports FORECAST: +0.8% yoy previously: -3.4% yoy Imports FORECAST: +1.1% yoy previously: +0.3% yoy
• 08:00 DE: Production in the manufacturing sector July seasonally adjusted OUTLOOK: -0.2% yoy previous: +1.4% yoy
• 08:45 FR: Industrial production July OUTLOOK: -0.3% yoy previous: +0.8% yoy
• 11:00 EU: GDP (3rd release) 2Q Eurozone FORECAST: +0.3% yoy/+0.6% yoy 2nd release: +0.3% yoy/+0.6% yoy 1st quarter: +0.3% yoy/+0.5% yoy
• 14:30 US: Labor market data August employment ex agriculture PROGNOSE: +161,000 yoy previous: +114,000 yoy Unemployment rate PROGNOSE: 4.2% previous: 4.3% average hourly earnings PROGNOSE: +0.3% yoy/+3.7% yoy previous: +0.2% yoy/+3.6% yoy

....the gold/silver ratio is falling - silver seems to mean business. XDC & Epic have vacated their place in the portfolio for Majestic ;-).

In recent days it became quite quiet about the rumors of the acquisition of $1COV (+0%) .

In the meantime I am skeptical whether $ADNOCDIST meanwhile is willing to make a higher offer. Personally, however, I think that rather not.

Why?

Out of personal interest, I got into $BRKM5 (-1.7%) in December. It opened up a solid product portfolio in important niches for industrial production. Worth noting the large market shares in polypropylene, also bio-based, and ethylene crackers in Mexico. My entry price was 3.60€.

A few weeks later $ADNOCDIST with $APO (+1.51%) a takeover offer with a premium of 157% at the then price of 27.60 BRL.

In the meantime, however, this takeover is in the stars, as the two investor groups disagree on the financing.

For this reason, I took profits of about 50% this week and will nevertheless continue to monitor the situation, as it will definitely provide impetus for the Covestro takeover.

I reinvested the liquidated position in First Majestic $FR (+6.26%) , the German SmallCap Pferdewetten.de $EMH (+3.35%) (You wouldn't believe how popular horse racing is.) , and the problematic chemical giant Lanxess $LXS (-2.56%) whose portfolio is now worth more than its market capitalization. This does not even include the tangible assets of the industrial plants and the supply contracts with very well-known customers.

Even if the chemical industry is hard hit at the moment, it remains one of the mainstays of a modern civil society, along with the metal and electrical industries. If the apocalypse does not occur, we will be able to benefit from good earnings and therefore also good dividends in the long term.

Subsequent purchase