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11Mon·

Economy on 14.06.2023...

It's FED interest rate decision again. Is there a surprise in store? Search autocopier...-1,2 Mio I can too! ⤵️

Today it's that time again. The FED will announce how it will continue in June. For me, everything has actually already been said here. In several meetings, the various members have spoken out for a break, but still said that it will go on again in the summer. They are not yet satisfied with inflation and are still aiming for 2%. Today, 73% assume a pause and only 27% assume an increase of 0.25%. For a reduction in interest rates, seems to be probably no one. Is also really unlikely and would be a much too early sign!

Yesterday came the CPI data, which were below expectations, but really moved a lot on the market. went down briefly, but then recovered again at the close of trading. With similar I expect today.

Even though so much has already been written about this, I would also like to use my reach again to really warn against such a rip-off. I myself have made a story on Instagram over a year ago, where I have questioned the copytrading on Naga and especially the person Dubai Flo. There were many reports of affected, which has already shown that the displayed trades, can only be the closed. Problem is, if you do not have enough capital on the broker, a trade runs further and further into the minus, then it is closed for you and you stand there with the loss. With him, it may simply continue to run and he shoots a few euros after. What do you think, why he trades with so "little money", when he is so good? So he adds a thousand per month and earns 50k (or whatever). At that time I was stoned for the story and all the younger ones of him are on me. I wonder where they are now and if he will even comment on it. I know it's getting on many of your nerves at some point, but you can't warn enough about it and shoot from all guns.

Please do not be lured by any mega return promises. One gets yield only with risk paid. A lot of return = a lot of risk. Remember this rule of thumb. So sorry and thanks for your time!

Let's take a look at today in detail!

Economic data

08:00

DE: Wholesale prices May
UK: GDP April PROGNOSIS: +0.2% yoy/+0.5% yoy previous: -0.3% yoy/+0.3% yoy
GB: Trade balance April PROGNOSIS: GBP -17.6 billion previous: GBP -16.4 billion
GB: Industrial Production April PROGNOSIS: -0.1% yoy/-1.6% yoy previous: +0.7% yoy/+2.0% yoy

11:00

EU: Industrial production April Eurozone PROGNOSIS: +0.5% yoy/-0.8% yoy previous: -4.1% yoy/-1.4% yoy

14:30

US: Producer prices May PROGNOSIS: -0.1% yoy previous: +0.2% yoy Core (excluding food and energy) PROGNOSIS: +0.2% yoy previous: +0.2% yoy

16:30

US: Crude oil inventory data (week) from the government Energy Information Administration (EIA)

20:00

US: Fed, outcome of FOMC meeting and projections on interest rates, growth, inflation, unemployment rate PROGNOSIS: 5.00% to 5.25% previously: 5.00% to 5.25%

20:30

US: FED-PK with Chairman Powell Fed funds target rate

No time stated

DE: Federal Ministry of Economics, Monthly Report on the Economic Situation June
EU: European Parliament votes on planned EU rules for artificial intelligence

ex-dividend of individual stocks

FCR Real Estate 0.11 EUR

2G Energy 0.14 EUR

Quarterly figures / Company dates USA / Asia

03:00 Toyota AGM

14:00 Blackrock Investor Day

15:00 Altice | Caterpillar AGM

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:00 Fraport Traffic Figures May

07:00 Heidelberger Druckmaschinen detailed annual results

10:00 Delivery Hero | Dermapharm | Instone Real Estate AGM

11:00 Cancom AGM

17:00 Hugo Boss Investor Day

No time stated: Software AG, end of acceptance period in the course of the takeover offer of the holding company Mosel Bidco SE

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16 Comments

Dennis@GordonGekko83

11Mon

"Search autocopier...-1.2 million I can also" Honestly, I don't think it's that simple! You work virtually against the overriding trend on the stock market. Respect for the achievement!👍😆

•

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Martin von mit Verstand zum Kapital

@MitVerstandzumKapital

11Mon·

Economy on 13.06.2023

The day before the interest rate decision. 0 or 0.25%?. Will the market really be deprived of $600 billion? ⤵️

In this new week are again some economic events. Today comes the consumer price index and tomorrow is then the next interest rate decision of the Fed. In addition, one wants to withdraw liquidity from the market.

After the suspension of the debt ceiling has now been decided by both houses of Congress and U.S. President Joe Biden must only sign the law, the U.S. can probably borrow fresh money again from the coming week by issuing government bonds. They are also likely to make extensive use of this. As a result of the foreseeable breach of the debt ceiling and the "extraordinary measures," the account balance in the so-called Treasury General Account, in which the U.S. Treasury holds its funds at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, has dropped from the usual level of around 650 billion dollars to less than 50 billion dollars.

That would mean, that it then starting next week, probably a lot of new US government bonds will give. So one reckons that these will suck a lot of liquidity from the market. But is that perhaps already priced in? Will this really lead to a strong vola? I am curious. Also, one no longer really expects the interest rate decision with interest rate hike for June. It has now been confirmed in several meetings that there will probably be a mini break and then it will continue. Completely stop is probably not yet the right way, because you still do not have inflation under control. So are we really waiting for surprises or is everything already priced into the market. In the negative, of course, it always goes. If the FED should now suddenly out of nowhere, 0.5% raise (very very unlikely), then that could of course scare the market. But currently one reckons with well over 80%, that there is a zero round and only a very small chance that there is no agreement and there will then be 0.25%. Tomorrow we are then smarter!

Let's look at the new trading day!

Economic data

08:00

DE: Consumer Prices (final) May PROGNOSE: -0.1% yoy/+6.1% yoy provisional: -0.1% yoy/+6.1% yoy previous: +0.4% yoy/+7.2% yoy HICP PROGNOSE: -0.2% yoy/+6.3% yoy provisional: -0.2% yoy/+6.3% yoy previous: +0.6% yoy/+7.6% yoy
UK: Labor Market Data May Unemployment Benefit Recipients PROGNOSIS: n/a previous: +46,700 Unemployment rate 3 months (ILO) PROGNOSIS: 4.0% previous: 3.9%

10:30

DE: Federal Health Minister Lauterbach, President of the German Medical Association, Reinhardt, Pk on demands of the medical profession for heat protection plans and for health-related climate protection to politicians, Berlin

11:00

DE: ZEW-Index Economic Sentiment June PROGNOSIS: -13.0 points previously: -10.7 points Economic situation PROGNOSIS: -41.4 points previously: -34.8 points

11:30

DE: Auction result new issue 2.4%-Bundesobligation over 5bn Euro maturing 19.10.2028

14:30

US: Consumer prices May PROGNOSE: +0.1% yoy/+4.0% yoy previously: +0.4% yoy/+4.9% yoy Core consumer prices PROGNOSE: +0.4% yoy/+5.3% yoy previously: +0.4% yoy/+5.5% yoy
US: Real income May

22:30

US: Crude oil inventory data (week) from private American Petroleum Institute (API).

Without time

AT: Opec monthly report on the oil market
EU: Conclusion of the two-day Council of Ministers for Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs, Luxembourg
US: Fed, start of two-day FOMC meeting

ex-dividend of individual stocks

Gesco 1.00 EUR

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

09:00 ad pepper media AGM

10:00 Flatexdegiro AGM

14:00 Aurubis Capital Market Day

No time stated:

- Volkswagen Supervisory Board meeting

- Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy SA, possibly continuation of ao AGM to vote on capital reduction for full takeover by parent company Siemens Energy

4 Comments

Deleted User

11Mon

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Martin von mit Verstand zum Kapital

@MitVerstandzumKapital

10Mon·

Economy on 22.06.2023...

Bitcoin takes off again, inflation in the UK remains high. Yesterday setbacks on the stock exchanges... ⤵️

Moin, I have a little less time than usual right now, because things are really happening again at my job. A massive number of ships are being built again. What has been postponed for the last few years, everyone now wants at once. Of course, this poses great challenges for the industry. But it's fun.

The stock market is currently a little less buoyant and lacks impetus. The interest rate decisions don't move much anymore and nobody really wants to hear the word inflation. If you are also positioned in the IT sector, then you have certainly brought in the last few weeks a good return.

But yesterday came the inflation data from the UK. These were far higher than expected. So here too, just like the ECB, interest rates will probably be raised further, to an estimated 5.25%. Signs therefore, that we are still far from over the hill. Also in the U.S., it is only a pause. So there will be further increases!

The stock exchange has corrected then yesterday also times a piece far. DAX has tested the mark of 16,000 points again. This could also be held over the trade, but was then broken through this morning. We are curious about the stock market start today. Also the DOWJ has given up the 34,000 points for the time being and the NASDAQ has left the 15,000 points behind again. It is a healthy reaction and is simply part of the stock market. Because at the stock exchange the adding works somewhat differently. Here is not 2+2=4 but rather 2+1-2+3=4. Setbacks are part of the business and always ensure that there are nice buying prices. Do not buy by FOMO purely in the hype and let you infect. There are always nice points to buy and even in a rally, there are other cheap stocks that you can bag in the times.

Bitcoin is currently shooting up and has now made the $30,000 again. The reason for this is that Blackrock wants to set up an "ETF" for cryptos and has applied for this. Other providers have expressed interest in this and will also apply for this. The only question is whether this will not end in disappointment. After all, Blackrock is not the first to try this. Also the depository Coinbase, could perhaps become a problem. In any case, the current buyers will have to wait quite a while for this decision. My coins continue to be stored on the ledger and are ey held long term.

Hong Kong and China Stock Market Holiday

Economic data

08:45

FR: Business Climate Index June PROGNOSIS: 99 previously: 99

09:30

CH: Swiss National Bank (SNB), Result of the Monetary Policy Council meeting Key interest rate PROGNOSED: 1.75% previously: 1.50%

13:00

UK: BoE, outcome and minutes of Monetary Policy Council meeting Bank Rate PROGNOSE: 4.75% previously: 4.50%

14:30

US: Initial jobless claims (week) PROGNOSIS: 256,000 previously: 262,000
US: Current account balance 1Q PROGNOSIS: -217.1 bn USD previous: -206.81 bn USD

16:00

EU: Consumer Confidence Index Eurozone (flash estimate) June PROGNOSIS: -17.0 previous: -17.4
US: Index of Leading Indicators May PROGNOSE: -0.7% yoy previous: -0.6% yoy
US: Existing home sales May PROGNOSE: -0.7% yoy previous: -3.4% yoy

ex-dividend individual stocks

Ökoworld 2.22 EUR

Schulte-Schlagbaum 12.00 EUR

Quarterly figures / Company dates USA / Asia

20:00 Nvidia AGM

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

10:00 GFT Technologies | Scout24 | Qiagen AGM

4 Comments

Smudo@Smudeo

10Mon

Yes, the companies and productions are running again, the stock market has already been forecast here for 9 months. The books are full and are being worked off. What scares me but new orders are as low as a long time no longer.

••

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Martin von mit Verstand zum Kapital

@MitVerstandzumKapital

11Mon·

Economy on 15.06.2023...

Day after the interest rate decision is like any other day. There have been no surprises. Today the ECB... ⤵️

Interest rate pause occurred as expected. But actually, it didn't surprise anyone either. Yesterday morning it was still 73% for the pause and 27% for an increase. In the lauge of the day it was then already 95% to 5%. But if you followed the events a little bit, it was actually 100% to 0%. Because if you followed the news a little bit in the last weeks, it was no surprise anymore. In my daily detailed daily appointments, appear yes again and again dates, where members of the FED, speeches hold. These run then in detail over the ticker. I am one of the crazy, which really always read through everything (if the time is there). There was evident that several members have already demanded in advance the interest rate pause, but also said that it goes on afterwards.

All that is new since yesterday, is that one targets the 5.6%. What then still 1-2 increases this year means. But the market (Dow Jones and also the crypto market) has once again done as if it were a surprise, and has reacted to it "slightly".

Currently, one drives very well with a broadly diversified portfolio. I am very curious how the trading day will feel today. Have today unfortunately little time and therefore I keep me now also a little shorter.

Today then still follows the ECB.

Let's look at today's trading day

Economic data

04:00

CN: Industrial Production | Retail Sales May

08:30

DE: Economic Forecast of DIW - German Institute for Economic Research

09:30

DE: Economic forecast of the IfW - Institute for the World Economy

11:00

DE: Economic Forecast of RWI - Rhenish-Westphalian Institute for Economic Research

14:15

EU: ECB, outcome of Council meeting Main refinancing rate PROGNOSIS: 4.00% previously: 3.75% Deposit rate PROGNOSIS: 3.50% previously: 3.25%

14:30

US: Retail sales May PROGNOSE: -0.2% yoy previous: +0.4% yoy Retail sales ex motor vehicles PROGNOSE: 0.0% yoy previous: +0.4% yoy
US: Empire State Manufacturing Index June PROGNOSIS: -16.0 previous: -31.8
US: Import and export prices May Import prices PROGNOSE: -0.5% yoy previous: +0.4% yoy
US: Philadelphia Fed Index June PROGNOSIS: -14.8 previously: -10.4
US: Initial jobless claims (week) PROGNOSIS: 245,000 previously: 261,000

14:45

EU: ECB, PK after Council meeting and staff projection for growth and inflation in the euro zone

15:15

US: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization May Industrial Production PROGNOSIS: 0.0% yoy previously: +0.5% yoy Capacity utilization PROGNOSIS: 79.6% previously: 79.7%

16:00

US: Inventories April PROGNOSE: +0.2% yoy previous: -0.1% yoy

ex-dividend of individual stocks

Cancom 1.00 EUR

Quarterly figures / Company dates USA / Asia

22:05 Adobe quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:30 Hugo Boss AG, Investor Day (8 a.m. PK)

08:00 Hennes & Mauritz Sales 2Q

10:00 Aumann | Brenntag | Deutsche Wohnen

10:00 DWS | Hamburger Hafen AGM

Martin von mit Verstand zum Kapital

@MitVerstandzumKapital

10Mon·

It economy 03.07.2023...

First half of the year is over and the forecasts for July look consistently bullish ⤵️

Today we start the 2nd half of the stock market in 2023. Looking back at the 1st half of the year, we can see the following, among other things:

NASDAQ - since the beginning of the year: +37,49% increased

DAX40 - since beginning of the year: +10,53% increased

DowJones - since beginning of the year: +2,3% increased

S&P500 - since beginning of the year: +14,26% increased

MSCI World (IWDA) - same time: 12,29% increased

My portfolio - same time: +11,30% increased

This shows me that my change in the portfolio unfortunately not yet so much fruit. But I still have half a year time. However, if I would include my other crypto investments, except BTC and ETH, here, then I would have beaten even the NASDAQ. However, I do not include these, as it is a separate project for me. Since I currently put a lot of time into this project, it may also be that I have missed some things here.

A clear story is for example, that I $S92
SMA Solar, much too early sold. At a little over 20 € bagged and sold at just over 60. I have estimated the difficulties, more long-term. Now we stand at 110€. But not every decision that one makes for himself and at the time also for Sinnvoll finds, is a good decision. What is important is that you do not think about it afterwards, when you know the result, but also think about what knowledge you had about the situation at the time of the decision. I would still call the SMA situation a mistake, because this reallocation would not have been necessary and the investment was actually longer thought. Here I have deviated from my strategy, so to speak. This has now cost me quite a bit in terms of returns.

What mistakes did you make in the first half of the year?

Will I do anything differently in the second half of the year? No, I don't actually plan to do that. Maybe I will become a little more active again. I didn't buy anything at all in June because I didn't like the market environment. It still doesn't. I don't feel comfortable at all in phases of exaggeration. At least not in phases where it rises. When it falls massively and everyone howls, then I feel comfortable and of course very happy to buy. Then at least I know what to do. In the second half of the year I will focus more on my strategy and see what I can get out of it. 2-3 bad purchases less and for it again some "short term" stories more. The risk may be a little higher.

But let's see how the new half-year starts economically:

On Tuesday there is then no trade in the U.S. because of Independence Day

Monday: Stock exchange dates, economic data, quarterly figures

Abbreviated trading US bond market (until 8 p.m. CEST), US stock market NYSE / Nasdaq (both until 7 p.m. CEST)

Economic data

08:30

CH: Consumer Prices June PROGNOSIS: +0.1% yoy/+1.8% yoy previous: +0.3% yoy/+2.2% yoy

09:45

IT: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI Manufacturing June PROGNOSIS: 45.3 previous: 45.9

09:50

FR: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI Manufacturing (2nd release) June PROGNOSIS: 45.5 1st release: 45.5 previous: 45.7

09:55

DE: Purchasing managers' index/PMI manufacturing (2nd release) June PROGNOSIS: 41.0 1st release: 41.0 previous: 43.2

10:00

EU: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI Manufacturing Eurozone (2nd release) June PROGNOSIS: 43.6 1st release: 43.6 previously: 44.8

10:30

UK: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI Manufacturing (2nd release) June PROGNOSIS: 1st release: 46.2 previously: 47.1

15:45

US: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI Manufacturing (2nd release) June PROGNOSIS: 48.5 1st release: 46.3 previously: 48.4

16:00

US: Construction spending May PROGNOSIS: +0.4% yoy previous : +1.2% yoy
US: ISM manufacturing index June PROGNOSIS: 47.1 points previously: 46.9 points

ex-dividend individual stocks

Porsche Automobil Hold. 2.56 EUR

Prosiebensat.1 0.05 EUR

Datron 0.20 EUR

Martin von mit Verstand zum Kapital

@MitVerstandzumKapital

10Mon·

Economy on 29.06.2023...

Penultimate day in the first half of 2023.

If we look back at the first half of the year, then some points stand out there, which one remembers immediately. Interest rate hikes , interest rate pause and sharp price increases at Nvidia and Co. There was of course also the other side. Paypal, Vonovia, Siemens Energy and Co. Here it went a little differently.

For me it was clear when I set myself up at the end of 2022, for 2023, that it will be a difficult and very mixed year. I think that I will continue to have a hard time this year. But there is still some time. therefore I will now in the next time, the first half-year in 2023, more exactly examine and if necessary my strategy something adapt. But with it we start of course only after the vacation season :)

It begins then also already soon, the next quarterly season. I suspect, however, that this will not have much impact, and we will continue to linger in the sideways phase with ups and downs. Companies like SMA Solar, have already announced, that was probably better than expected, but even that, is already priced in and we will then see profit taking rather than further unexpected increases. You know, the stock market always trades the future. Means that such known events, then rather already included in the price.

I think, however, that there will still be one or the other surprise in 2023. The

Art will be only to climb in time on the boat or even to know on which one must climb to experience a great vacation. Many considerations, will be perhaps already for 2024. There I will definitely invest a little more in the crypto sector and bet on a renewed bull run. But until then, is still some time and it could still change a lot.

Long-term investments continue to run and profits are always reallocated to them. To increase cash flow and capital.

Let's look at the penultimate trading day in June:

Singapore Stock Exchange Holiday

Economic data

07:30

DE: Consumer Prices North Rhine-Westphalia June

09:00

ES: HICP and Consumer Prices June (preliminary) HICP PROGNOSIS: +1.6% yoy previous: +2.9% yoyj

10:00

DE: Consumer Prices Bavaria | Brandenburg | Hesse June

11:00

EU: Economic Sentiment Index June Economic Sentiment Eurozone PROGNOSIS: 96.0 previous: 96.5 Industrial confidence Eurozone PROGNOSIS: -5.6 previous: -5.2 Consumer confidence Eurozone PROGNOSIS: -16.1 previous: -16.1 previous: -17.4
EU: Business Climate Index Eurozone June

14:00

DE: Consumer Prices (preliminary) June PROGNOSE: +0.2% yoy/+6.3% yoy previous: -0.1% yoy/+6.1% yoy HICP PROGNOSE: +0.3% yoy/+6.7% yoy previous: -0.2% yoy/+6.3% yoy

14:30

US: GDP (3rd release) 1Q annualized PROGNOSIS: +1.4% yoy 2nd release: +1.3% yoy 4th quarter: +2.6% yoy GDP deflator PROGNOSIS: +4.2% yoy 2nd release: +4.2% yoy 4th quarter: +3.9% yoy
US: Initial jobless claims (week) PROGNOSIS: 264,000 previous: 264,000

ex-dividend individual stocks

Dr.Ing.h.c. F.Porsche 1.01 EUR

GK Software 0.04 EUR

Nabaltec 0.28 EUR

SGT German Private Equity 0.02 EUR

Quarterly figures / Company dates USA / Asia

22:00 Nike quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

08:00 Hennes & Mauritz Quarterly Figures

10:00 R. Stahl | MLP | Pirelli AGM

15:00 Sanofi Investor Day