Economy on 24.05.2023...

The market is currently under tension ⤵️

As Friday and Monday won, so yesterday almost everything clotted again! Of course, this is not 100% true and is different for everyone. Depending on the weighting of the corresponding sectors in the portfolio. But you can clearly see how much under tension, the current stock market is. If one goes only after the fundamental data of the companies and their quarterly figures, we would not be where we are today. It is already again very much future music eingepreist. Which is of course normal on the stock market, because the stock market always trades the future. But how much of it will really happen and when?

• Interest rate hikes are now history?
• Are we already expecting the first interest rate cuts?

One sees again and again how risk capital is pulled out of the market, but which alternatives are there really? It flows back again and again and we will probably still be in this ping pong for a while.

Let's take a look at the S&P 500:

• $AAPL Apple 7.41% weighting and YTD +32.98%
• $MSFT Microsoft 6.74% weighting with YTD +33.83
• $GOOGL Alphabet
  4.0% weighting with YTD +41.04%
• $AMZN Amazon 2.95% Weighting with YTD + 37.30%
• $NVDA Nvidia 2.19% weighting with YTD +113.53%

The performance of the $IUSA
S&P500 is currently +8.9% in 2023 (as of yesterday pre-market). Nvidia will still publish the quarterly figures today and we will also be able to look behind the company fundamentally! But you can already see strongly how the big tech companies, the market just pull. A setback in this sector, so could really hurt. On Instagram, I have made the days a survey among Nvidia investors, and the majority has taken profits before the numbers or plans it now after the numbers. At least partial sales were at the top of the list. It remains exciting! If you continue to have some capital lying, you can be quite relaxed and diligently buy in case of setbacks!

The ECB (Council member Villeroy de Galhau) has said yesterday in an interview that the interest rate increases stop in the summer at the latest. This has of course companies like $VNA
Vonovia pleased, which was then around 6% in plus. But others also did well yesterday against the market. Tech and large US stocks down a bit and the good anti-cyclicals up a bit. I'm curious to see how it goes this week. What do you think and do you change anything in your investment?

$SIX2
Sixt is trading EX-dividend today and today numbers at. $S92
SMA Solar. There I am very curious. Am there unfortunately, much too early got out!

What is still so today:

08:00

• UK: Consumer Prices April Consumer Prices PROGNOSIS: +0.8% yoy/ +8.2% yoy previously: +0.8% yoy/+10.1% yoy Core consumer prices PROGNOSIS: +0.7% yoy/ +6.1% yoy previously: +0.9% yoy/ +6.2% yoy

10:00

• DE: ifo Business Climate Index May PROGNOSE: 93.0 previous: 93.6 Business situation PROGNOSE: 94.5 previous: 95.0 Business expectations PROGNOSE: 91.9 previous: 92.2

15:00

• BE: Business Climate Index May PROGNOSE: -8.8 points previous: -7.8 points

16:30

• US: Crude oil inventory data (week) from the government's Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Untimed:

• EU: Commission, presentation of an "investment strategy for retail investors," including proposals on commission-based advice and information requirements

ex-dividend of individual stocks

Krones 1.75 EUR

Nemetschek 0.45 EUR

PSI Software 0.40 EUR

Sixt St. 6.11 EUR

Sixt Vz. 6.13 EUR

Quarterly figures / Company dates USA / Asia

05:00 Lenovo annual results

13:00 Analog Devices Quarterly Results

18:00 Amazon AGM

22:20 Nvidia quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:30 CTS Eventim quarterly figures

10:00 Lanxess | New Work | SMA Solar

10:00 Uniper | Zalando AGM

11:00 Puma | Adva | Teamviewer AGM

Without time information: Cropenergies | Einhell Quarterly figures

Image from the post is from Instagram from Cashcocktail's post. This was not generated by me. Click here to go to the post https://www.instagram.com/p/CslsQkNMFu8/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==

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Economy on 29.02.2024...

This post can only exist every 4 years, the performance too? ⤵️

If you look at yesterday's market performance alone, you can't help but be excited about today. maybe people will remember this day for the next 4 years? Of course, most of the current performance is coming from the crypto sector. But the DAX has also reached its ATH again. The NASDAQ and DOW are close to their key marks. Japan at ATH and so on. Everywhere you look, things are going well. It really makes you wonder how much longer this can go on.

But why? Most of us are invested for the long term and have a long investment horizon. If you're not playing around with any risky shares, then you don't really have to do much except be happy and keep investing. Perhaps with a savings plan, or simply in ETFs. The main thing is that you are invested. Sit back and be happy. In times like these, I also like to stop all savings plans and continue to accumulate cash.

$BTC
Bitcoin not only took the 60,000$ yesterday, but even the 63,000$. So it's not far to the ATH. My PepeCoin is also continuing to rise at the moment and is running $ETH
far ahead of Ethereum. My portfolio, which I restructured in 2023, now has over 50% cryptos. That wasn't planned, but it doesn't bother me either. I've now started buying individual securities again in 2024 in addition to the ETFs in the savings plan. I've already bought 3 and more + additional purchases will follow. Cash has been accumulated and is waiting to find the pearls and collect them at the bottom.

What do you have on your watchlist right now?

Let's take a look at the trading day that only comes around every 4 years! I'm really looking forward to the figures from SMA Solar, Autodesk and Dell!

Economic data

08:00

• DE: Retail Sales January FORECAST: +0.4% yoy previous: -1.1% yoy

08:45

• FR: Private consumption January | Consumer prices (preliminary) February

09:00

• AT: Statistics Austria, GDP (2nd release) 4Q
• ES: HICP and consumer prices (preliminary) February FORECAST: +3.0% yoy previously: +3.5% yoy
  

09:55

• DE: Labor market data February Unemployment rate sb FORECAST: +10,000 yoy previously: - 2,000 yoy Unemployment rate sb FORECAST: 5.8% previously: 5.8%

10:00

• DE: Consumer prices Bavaria | Baden-Württemberg | Brandenburg | Hesse | Saxony February

14:00

• DE: Consumer prices (preliminary) February PROGNOSE: +0.5% yoy/+2.6% yoy previous: +0.2% yoy/+2.9% yoy HICP PROGNOSE: +0.6% yoy/+2.7% yoy previous: -0.2% yoy/+3.1% yoy
  

14:30

• US: Initial jobless claims (week) January FORECAST: 210,000 previous: 201,000
• US: Personal Spending and Income January Personal Spending PROGNOSE: +0.2% yoy previous: +0.7% yoy Personal income PROGNOSE: +0.3% yoy previous: +0.3% yoy PCE price index / core rate PROGNOSE: +0.4% yoy/+2.8% yoy previous: +0.2% yoy/+2.9% yoy
  

15:45

• US: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index February FORECAST: 48.0 previous: 46.0

Quarterly figures / corporate data USA / Asia

Without time data: Hewlett Packard Enterprise | Autodesk | Dell | Best Buy quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:00 SMA Solar | Anheuser-Busch | Covestro

07:00 Kion | Aareal Bank Annual results

07:15 Air France-KLM Group Annual Results

07:30 Erste Group | Aixtron | Befesa | Beiersdorf

07:30 Andritz annual result

08:00 MTU | Villeroy & Boch

08:00 International Consolidated Airlines | Haleon

08:00 London Stock Exchange | CRH Annual Results

18:05 Saint-Gobain Annual Results

No time specified: Freenet | Patrizia preliminary annual results | SAP annual report | Schott Pharma quarterly figures

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Economy 09.05.2023...

Zscaler📈 Paypal📉. Nintendo today with numbers and some MDAX changes ⤵️

The forecast increase from $ZS
Zscaler for the full year, has brought me back quite a bit closer to profitability. The stock was up over 20%. I will hold this position much longer, as I think the digital security sector will become very important. $PYPL
Paypal was on everyone's radar yesterday and expectations were high, maybe too high? I myself expected a few more. The expectations of the analysts were exceeded and the share reacted with -4%. Since everything went after-hours, especially the call, you have to see what's going on today then 15:30. I will look again today, whether in the call something was told to standing annual forecast. But I still think that the share is very strongly undervalued. No matter how the movement is today or in the next few days, in the long term the company is healthy and the growth is good.

Today, a company will move up from the SDAX to the MDAX, where I can only watch with a teary eye. $S92
SMA Solar. This I bought in the low at 28€ and then sold in the first high at 64€. After that, the boost really kicked in here and we are now at just under 107€. Madness. I have made good returns, but I would not have expected so quickly. or without further setbacks, not. But that's the stock market. Sometimes you win and sometimes you lose, in this case I would rather say that everyone has won.

Then today there will be the figures from $7974
Nintendo, where I am very excited. Friday comes out the new Zelda. Maybe all the pre-sales are already included here? Exactly I do not know. Also rumored, about a new Switch, still this year. The Switch is currently the most successful console from Nintendo and to the most successful handheld from Nintendo, the way is no longer so far away. Exciting story and I love the console myself. The console is already about 6 years old and clearly the sale here is slowly declining. Nintendo are for me currently also rather buying opportunities. Dividend is doing well and there seems to be a lot going on. Also the film Mario Bros. has been a success in theaters. I look forward to the numbers. What do you think about Nintendo, SMA Solar, Zscaler or Paypal?

There is a lot going on today, let's take a closer look:

Economic data

08:00

• DE: Truck Toll Road Performance Index April

11:30

• DE: Auction result reopening 2.2%-Bundesobligation over 5bn Euro maturing 13.04.2028

12:00

• DE: Bundesverband der Windparkbetreiber Offshore, PK on the topic "Offshore wind energy - THIS must happen now".

22:30

• US: Crude oil inventory data (week) from the private American Petroleum Institute (API).

Without time

• DE: Federal Supreme Court (BGH), ruling on so-called negative interest rates from promissory note loans
• UA: EU Commission President von der Leyen, trip to Kiev for talks with Ukrainian President Selenskyj
• FR: German Foreign Minister Baerbock, meeting with French President Macron and participation in meeting of French Council of Ministers, Paris
• US: Fed New York President Williams (voting member of FOMC), speech at Economic Club of New York
• U.S.: President Biden, meeting with top Senate and House officials on debt ceiling

The following index changes will take effect at the start of trading:

• MDAX NEW ADJOURNMENT: SMA Solar
• MDAX ACCEPTANCE: Evotec

• TecDAX NEW ADOPTION: Kontron
• TecDAX OUTPUT: Evotec

• SDAX NEW ADOPTION: Suess Microtec
• SDAX OUTPUT: SMA Solar

ex-dividend of individual stocks

Danone 2.00 EUR

Schneider Electric 3.15 EUR

Quarterly figures / Company dates USA / Asia

08:00 Nintendo quarterly figures

12:55 Under Armour quarterly figures

22:05 Airbnb quarterly figures

Without times: Electronic Arts | Warner Music | Coty Quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:00 Carl Zeiss Meditec | Daimler Truck

07:00 Evonik Industries | Fresenius Medical Care

07:00 Fresenius SE | K+S | Adva | Wacker Neuson

07:10 Norma Quarterly Figures

07:30 Dürr | Hensoldt | Manz | Mutares Quarterly Figures

07:40 Elringklinger Quarterly Figures

08:00 PNE | Schaeffler | Banca Monte dei Paschi

09:00 Endesa Quarterly Figures

10:00 Deutsche Lufthansa | Hugo Boss

10:00 Rheinmetall | SGL Carbon AGM

11:00 Zeal Network AGM

14:00 Hochtief quarterly figures

Without time data: Amadeus IT | Outokumpu Quarterly figures

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It economy 03.07.2023...

First half of the year is over and the forecasts for July look consistently bullish ⤵️

Today we start the 2nd half of the stock market in 2023. Looking back at the 1st half of the year, we can see the following, among other things:

NASDAQ - since the beginning of the year: +37,49% increased

DAX40 - since beginning of the year: +10,53% increased

DowJones - since beginning of the year: +2,3% increased

S&P500 - since beginning of the year: +14,26% increased

MSCI World (IWDA) - same time: 12,29% increased

My portfolio - same time: +11,30% increased

This shows me that my change in the portfolio unfortunately not yet so much fruit. But I still have half a year time. However, if I would include my other crypto investments, except BTC and ETH, here, then I would have beaten even the NASDAQ. However, I do not include these, as it is a separate project for me. Since I currently put a lot of time into this project, it may also be that I have missed some things here.

A clear story is for example, that I $S92
SMA Solar, much too early sold. At a little over 20 € bagged and sold at just over 60. I have estimated the difficulties, more long-term. Now we stand at 110€. But not every decision that one makes for himself and at the time also for Sinnvoll finds, is a good decision. What is important is that you do not think about it afterwards, when you know the result, but also think about what knowledge you had about the situation at the time of the decision. I would still call the SMA situation a mistake, because this reallocation would not have been necessary and the investment was actually longer thought. Here I have deviated from my strategy, so to speak. This has now cost me quite a bit in terms of returns.

What mistakes did you make in the first half of the year?

Will I do anything differently in the second half of the year? No, I don't actually plan to do that. Maybe I will become a little more active again. I didn't buy anything at all in June because I didn't like the market environment. It still doesn't. I don't feel comfortable at all in phases of exaggeration. At least not in phases where it rises. When it falls massively and everyone howls, then I feel comfortable and of course very happy to buy. Then at least I know what to do. In the second half of the year I will focus more on my strategy and see what I can get out of it. 2-3 bad purchases less and for it again some "short term" stories more. The risk may be a little higher.

But let's see how the new half-year starts economically:

On Tuesday there is then no trade in the U.S. because of Independence Day

Monday: Stock exchange dates, economic data, quarterly figures

Abbreviated trading US bond market (until 8 p.m. CEST), US stock market NYSE / Nasdaq (both until 7 p.m. CEST)

Economic data

08:30

• CH: Consumer Prices June PROGNOSIS: +0.1% yoy/+1.8% yoy previous: +0.3% yoy/+2.2% yoy

09:45

• IT: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI Manufacturing June PROGNOSIS: 45.3 previous: 45.9

09:50

• FR: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI Manufacturing (2nd release) June PROGNOSIS: 45.5 1st release: 45.5 previous: 45.7

09:55

• DE: Purchasing managers' index/PMI manufacturing (2nd release) June PROGNOSIS: 41.0 1st release: 41.0 previous: 43.2

10:00

• EU: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI Manufacturing Eurozone (2nd release) June PROGNOSIS: 43.6 1st release: 43.6 previously: 44.8

10:30

• UK: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI Manufacturing (2nd release) June PROGNOSIS: 1st release: 46.2 previously: 47.1

15:45

• US: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI Manufacturing (2nd release) June PROGNOSIS: 48.5 1st release: 46.3 previously: 48.4

16:00

• US: Construction spending May PROGNOSIS: +0.4% yoy previous : +1.2% yoy
• US: ISM manufacturing index June PROGNOSIS: 47.1 points previously: 46.9 points

ex-dividend individual stocks

Porsche Automobil Hold. 2.56 EUR

Prosiebensat.1 0.05 EUR

Datron 0.20 EUR

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Economy on 09.03.2023...

Back after holiday. Adidas? Interest rates? What's up?⤵️

Yes in Meck-Pomm and in Berlin, is since 2023 the International Women's Day a holiday. Therefore, we had here yesterday free and have enjoyed the day times something.

The stock market I have of course had something in view. What has happened so everything. On Tuesday evening, Mr. Powell came back to speak and has announced that the interest rate increases may be somewhat higher again. This stock market has dadrauf actually only slightly reacted and yesterday already well caught again.

Why is that so and was otherwise worse?

Who is still surprised by this? One sees for months that the efforts of the FED, not so fruitful as one had hoped. So what remains now. One looks at the further and then pulls the thing longer through... the danger is that at some point the economy does not find that so funny in the long run. Or one pulls once clearly and hopes that it is more fruitful. Probably the duration will be reduced. But we will see that only in the next MoM. One sees that the stock market no longer turns completely free, after such news. Also somehow a good sign.

$ADS
Adidas cuts the dividend and loses massively in sales. Dividend is from 3.30 € to 0.70 €. Sales have fallen alone by the end of the cooperation with the rapper Kanye West, over 600 million. Things are no longer running smoothly here and the share is also losing significantly.

$LEG
LEG Immobilien completely cuts the dividend for 2023. Of course, this could cap the entire sector today. $VNA
Vonovia is completely under fire because of the corruption allegations and could then also be very vulnerable here.

What else is going on?

I have yesterday my purchase for March in the portfolio done. Could be seen in my portfolio. $JNJ
I bought Johnson&Johnson. These had a very small weighting in my portfolio and the courses lead straight to buy. That's why I bought some dividends in my portfolio. The next buy is $PYPL
Paypal became. Here the risk is somewhat higher but for me this looks strongly like a bottom formation. Here I buy me some growth for 2023 in the depot. Clearly, the revenue and the EDITDA in 2022 fell sharply, but if the economy now starts again, then Paypal will benefit and the numbers should be much better and the turnaround should run.

I am excited and will hold here longer.

Also coming in today are the numbers from $S92
SMA Solar. These I have bought then yes under 40 and then sold well over 60€. had completely lost sight of the and was very surprised that the were now already over 80. The have times a strong turnaround put down. On the figures today I am curious!

Economic data (shortened version)

00:50

• JP: GDP (2nd release) 4Q

02:30

• CN: Consumer prices February

14:30

• US: Initial jobless claims (week) PROGNOSED: 195,000 Previous: 190,000

16:00

• US: Fed Governor Barr (voting on FOMC), speech at Peterson Institute on cryptocurrencies.

22:05

• UK: MSCI, quarterly index review.

ex-dividend individual stocks

Novartis 3.20 CHF

Quarterly figures / corporate dates USA / Asia

22:05 Oracle quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / company dates Europe

07:00 Deutsche Post | SMA Solar | LEG Immobilien

07:00 Siltronic | Adva | Deutsche Pfandbriefbank

07:00 Klöckner & Co annual results

07:30 Drägerwerk | Hannover Re | Hugo Boss

07:30 Manz | MLP Annual Results

Without time information:

- Dassault | Leonardo | Autogrill | Prada Annual figures

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