Why it´s not important for porsche what tesla is doing
(updated english version)
(i was asked to translate some of my posts, the original u can find here: https://app.getquin.com/activity/DmPHromeFO , i will update some things because there was an important political change)
Thanks to @leveragegrinding for giving me the idea for the post and for @Staatsmann & @mariechristines to motivate me to translate and update the post.
please be aware that english is not my native language and i am trying to translate this post fast, so there could be some errors ☹ and i write with a german autocorrector so it migth change some words i didnt see
Structure:
1. Future of the electric cars, two ways
2. Problem of way two
3. Why way one is also good for Porsche
4. Why Tesla cant hurt porsche wery badly
5. Why tesla isnt intered in stepping up
6. personal conclusion
7.
important political change
1. Future of the electric cars, two ways
To be direct: we need a change away from the oil based engine to a climate nutreal possibility to travel. We are already abled to see that public transports are not the only way to go, we are to comfort with the individuel traveling and thze car industtrie has a very strong lobby.
In my mind, there are two possible ways to go: we go all elecrtic (papa #elon would love this) but this isnt the best way in extrem situations like snowy mountains or citys like dubai, i dont think i have to explain that. But we are talking about the worldwide market.
The second way is a little bit less dramatic… efuels….
This system would have some pros, but also a realy big contra point: we have many gas stations, these doesnt even have to change to work with efuels (efuels are already mixed into normal fuel), for the daily user ist cost effecive, u dont have to buy a high priced electric car, the planet wouldnt be destoyed that mutch because we need less lithium, high power engines like for le mans (or for example for a traktor to carry a tank) or for ships and airplains are usable, if u are refilling u dont have o weait long to recharge,also liquid is easier to transport than lecrtic power (over long distances). But efuels have one big contra point: elecric cars are at this moment way more efficient, but hat could change and thats the point where #porsche appears:
2. Problem of way two:
Current, #efuels are not realy a part of the oil market. Porsche and #siemens are building the current biggest efuels-factory in Chile supported with money by the german government. But why Chile? Chile is has a good possibility to use wind energie to prouce the efuel. But a directly change to efuels rigth now is not possible: until 2024 the worldwide Efuels production will be as big as 1.2% of the fuel use in germany 2019. But why will Porsche profit exponentially from the use of Efuels? The price tag to go into this marcet is way higher than te price tag o produce Electric cars, and a this moment the market is neary a monopol if we look in the near future.
3. why path 1 is also good for Porsche
Now we finally come to the point I came across because of Moritz: why Porsche also benefits when there are only e cars, even if #tesla as an example (whether you think this is realistic is up to you, but I think rather not) has a market share of 23.2% (because I have seen several Apple comparisons times the market share of q4 2021). Why Porsche will continue to have a market share comes later. In the article that Moritz has linked it was about the fact that if we would replace 10 million cars in Germany by electric cars, that we then just can not drive climate neutral. But why now the whole thing: If we would change to 10 million E vehicles, we would totally overload a grid that consists only of renewable. We would have to fall back on nuclear power, gas or coal in order to be able to provide the required electricity at night (and don't give me that I charge at home during the day, no, on average we charge overnight), because we simply lack storage options for a fluctuating amount of electricity (wind and solar). Here Porsche comes around the corner with two solutions: on the one hand, electricity can be used to produce efuel, which is comparatively easy to store. That's why it doesn't really matter if efuels are used for private cars, they will be needed anyway (whoever wants to can find out about the other possible uses of efuels). On the other hand, Porsche comes up with the possibility of using the car as a mobile power bank ( being able to discharge it again). At least in research, they are the market leader here. Also, as the Taycan together with its group brother Audi etron was the first to introduce the 800 volt technology, should we have to fall back on the "mobile powerbank" we need ways to quickly discharge a lot of electricity, otherwise we quickly have a blackout. As an advantage over VW, for example, Porsche has its own battery production. Porsche plans to convert to 80% electric cars by 2030.
4.
Why Porsche is safe
When I talk about security here, it can be interpreted in several ways: what Musk has just done with Twitter could be perceived as a threat, as could holding Porsche's market share.
First, the impossible takeover:
Porsche cannot be taken over by Musk so quickly:
Porsche itself is currently owned by Volkwagen, even at IPO 75% will remain in Vw hands. VW only has a free float of 42%, anchor investors such as the state of Lower Saxony, etc., but the majority of the ordinary shares are owned by Porsche SE, which does have ordinary shares, but these are all in the hands of the Porsche/Piech families. A hostile takeover is therefore impossible.
Musk cannot simply buy Porsche and flatten it.
But why Porsche also has certain market shares secure:
Anyone who buys a Rolex buys it at a higher price than just the quality represents. This also has little to do with the production costs. Who buys a Rolex wants a certain image, a certain brand, simply a certain promise. It is similar with Porsche: certainly there may be some who want to have the fastest electric car, whether this is a Tesla or not is irrelevant here, but Porsche is not only about speed: Porsche has a certain kind of luxury, Tesla is more like the standard car in comparison. With Porsche it is connected that you have achieved something, you buy quality according to the image, you buy a driving experience, some would even call it a way of life to drive Porsche. Those who want to drive a Porsche are not only tempted by the manufacturer's specifications (which, by the way, are sometimes very difficult to compare, especially when it comes to Tesla vs Porsche). Porsche simply has certain customers that Tesla can not reach. (the same with Ferrari, by the way). So Porsche will not lack customers in the long run.
What makes Porsche special compared to all other automakers when you look at individual company numbers is profitability: they are the most profitable automaker in the world, ahead of Tesla, ahead of Ferrari, ahead of everyone. This should also help against inflation.
5. why Tesla is not interested in catching up.
Elon Musk is sticking strictly to the vision of electric cars and has been resisting statements for years that efuels or hydrogen would be alternatives, so a change of course is not really to be expected in this topic.
Why Tesla, however, renounces the discharge option of the Teslas, is not quite clear, but since an announcement in 2019 has come to this field only unofficially to news, and here not exactly to positive:
According to an internal, it is no longer intended to use the Tesla as a mobile storage. And if it were still intended, this would have been announced by Musk a long time ago, Elon Musk is not exactly known for omitting announcements (whether he keeps them or not).
6 Personal conclusion:
The Porsche IPO will be exciting for me not only as a Zuffenhausener, also by
a fair valuation the stock will be a sure thing... I will look at the valuation at the IPO, and get in depending on the price, but in the long run the Porsche Ag position should become one of the Larger single stocks in my portfolio. (no investment advice)
8. Important political change
the eu commission has decided to ban the production of the internal combustion engine from 2035, which would lead to a not long future for efuels in terms of cars, but i will now explain why this is irrelevant for the investment of money:
on the one hand, it is currently up in the air whether the ban will be overturned, on the other hand, according to industry experts, it is already foreseeable that certain things such as aircraft, the chemical industry or similar will have a huge demand for efuels, since further use is probably only possible with a combustible material such as gasoline. accordingly, siemens and porsche will be able to sell the efuel they produce in any case.
I know the topic of Tesla is a very controversial one, I still ask for a civilized discussion of the topic i the comments.
the sources can be found in the original post