Bought: Warrant long on Coinbase for €24,826 with leverage at Trade Republic with maturity January 2026 on 14.12.23. WKN: HS3PTY
Speculation / Investment Case
When Bitcoin rises, the Coinbase share usually rises more. So there is already a little leverage "built in" indirectly. So if you leverage Coinbase and speculate on a new crypto bull run at the end of 2024 / 2025, you could do this in the meantime with such long-dated warrants without a premature KO.
Sample calculation
My price target for Coinbase is $480 (currently $175) if Bitcoin breaks $100,000 in the next crypto bull market. For example, if the Coinbase share were to stand at $480 on June 1, 2025, the warrant would go up 320% from today. If it does this on 01.01.25, it would be +371% according to the warrant calculator (see image below). Downside risk is limited as there is no obligation to make additional contributions. The chance of profit is many times higher. My stake of just under €25,000 would therefore turn into an estimated €125,000 or €150,000.
Hint
These HSBC warrants are apparently not available in the Trade Republic app on weekends / public holidays and outside trading hours. So it is best to check Wednesday morning at the start of trading.
Risks
If Coinbase shares were to fall below $320 in January 2026, this would be a total loss.
Coinbase could:
a) go bankrupt,
b) be hacked or
c) become too heavily regulated.
d) Another risk is of course the Bitcoin price. It is not certain whether the next bull run will take place in the time frame until early 2026. And even if the bull run happens, new all-time highs are not guaranteed, but are also just speculation.
e) It is therefore not guaranteed that this crypto cycle will be similar to the last cycles, as it needs a loose central bank policy so that money flows back into high-risk assets such as BTC. In German: Jerome and Christine's money printers need to make *brrrrr brrrr* again 🖨💵🖨💶
f) You bet against the bank (HSBC).
g) If this bank goes bust, you may lose your money. It is different from shares or share ETFs. Issuer risk.
h) The last time I put so much money into an individual position, it was Wirecard. The result was -90%. A brilliant performance.
i) Coinbase has risen 364% this year. A lot is priced in.
>> So there are a lot of risks. Please note and do not bet too much money on this speculation. Your potential losses are not my losses and therefore not my problem. For me, €25,000 is 7% of my total portfolio.
Outlook / Sale / Exit
I plan to sell the warrant (even before the expiry in 01/26) if the Bitcoin price breaks $100,000. It would also be possible to switch to another OS with better conditions beforehand. BTC currently stands at 44,000$. I therefore expect it to almost double.
The Coinbase share is currently at 175$. I expect it to almost triple to $480 when Bitcoin breaks $100,000. Coinbase all-time high was $320 (€300) in November 2021 when Bitcoin also had its all-time high at $69,000.
30€ 52-week low Coinbase
162€ 52-week high on 22.12.23
159€ Current price
450€ (480$) my price target until the beginning of 2026
Alternatives
Of course, you could also buy real cryptos directly and benefit from the tax exemption on crypto profits after a holding period of one year in Germany. But I have already done that. Due to the leverage in the warrant, I think that the BTC price could be outperformed despite the tax. Altcoins could of course also achieve this, but are again more speculative in my opinion. I already own enough altcoins. Coinbase is already relatively heavily regulated, which could provide security.
Further (planned) purchases
In addition to two Coinbase warrants (HS16XW, HS3PTY), I bought two other warrants, a leverage certificate and three cryptos. I have invested a total of €51,000 in the last seven weeks. As a patron, you can find out immediately in my Telegram group which ones these were (only later on social media) and when I sell, switch or buy how much. All my purchases and sales are announced and explained there. The monthly price is very fair and extremely affordable. Thank you for your support. Link: https://www.patreon.com/Techaktien (Advertising).
In the portfolio
First Coinbase warrant (OS) has quadrupled in less than seven weeks. Soon a fivefold increase, God willing. WKN: HS16XW. I will probably let the first warrant run until the Coinbase share has reached around $250 (currently $175), as the leverage decreases more and more the further you move away from the $200 strike. Then I may switch to a new, better bill with higher leverage. I hold the second bill. WKN: HS3PTY.
I have not taken any leverage certificates / knock-outs, as cryptos, like crypto shares, are very volatile and a premature KO / total loss is likely with leverage. This risk is avoided with the long term of the OS.
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