I had described here https://getqu.in/wtMaho/ described an investment reserve that can generate an excess return with similar or lower volatility than the overall market.

Very abbreviated:

We hold 20% in cash bonds and gold and start buying in reset, parameterized with increasing leverage.

What has changed since the last post?

1. all US bonds and US dollar cash have been removed from the portfolio, the uncertainties surrounding the Mar-a-Lago Accord are simply too great in relation to the opportunity to take a few percentage points in currency gains.

2. as it was (rightly) pointed out that the strategy is somewhat fragmented, I decided to make a few small adjustments.

The inflation-linked government bonds have left the portfolio. On reflection, money market funds and long-dated bonds are completely sufficient to compensate for inflation. (thanks for the comment @SchlaubiSchlumpf )

The investment reserve therefore looks like this:

-------------------------------------------

EURO

30.0% Money Market $CSH2 (+0.04%)

30.0% German Gov. Bonds 7+Y $X03G (+0.32%)

-------------------------------------30%

Swiss Franc

20.0% Swiss Gov.Bonds 7-10Y $CH0440081393 (-0.15%)

-------------------------------------20%

Swiss Gold

20.0% Gold $EWG2 (+2.8%)

-------------------------------------20%

==========100%==========

3. on the way south, the portfolio has already been rebalanced twice.

In concrete terms, this means that bonds have been sold and the $VWCE (-2.89%) bought so that the 80/20 ratio is maintained.

The $ACWI in USD broke through the threshold of 10% to its all-time high today, whereby the first still leveraged position was built up.

Purchased were:

2.5% MSCI World Ex USA $EXUS (-1.69%)

1.0% MSCI USA 2x $CL2 (-7.41%)

This means that the first 17.5% of our investment reserve is now invested.

The next purchase will be made when the $ACWI 20% away from the ATH, which would then be around $100.00

Just for your information, the All Countys World Index $ACWI (in USD) is up 1% YTD,

and in Euro 3% down. (07 March 2025 11:45 - UTC:+1:00)

So if anyone thinks this is a crash, then the portfolio is probably too concentrated.

By the way, on March 3 and 4 the Dow Jones fell by more than 1000 points, @DonaldTrump. 😁

Foreword:

An investment reserve can be a great thing, it smoothes out volatility and in extreme phases you have the opportunity to implement something meaningful in your portfolio, which has a very calming effect psychologically.

Unfortunately, the expected additional return from buy the dip often fails to materialize, as the opportunity costs eat everything up again.

Very nicely described here by Gerd Kommer:

https://gerd-kommer.de/buy-the-dip/

But what if we turn a few screws, don't hold our investment reserves in cash and buy leveraged?

I have thought too much about this topic and built a model for a war chest, which I am also implementing myself.

Building up the reserve:

Investment Reserve

-------------------------------------------

EURO

10.0% Money Market / 0-1y Bonds EUR $CSH2 (+0.04%)

10.0% Inflation linked Gov. Bonds $IBCI (+0.43%)

10.0% German Gov. Bonds 7+Y $X03G (+0.32%)

-------------------------------------30%

US Dollar

10.0% Money Market / 0-1y Bonds USD $XFFE (-0.46%)

10.0% Inflation linked Gov. Bonds $XTIP (-0.38%)

10.0% US Gov. Bonds 7-10Y $US7 (-0.25%)

-------------------------------------30%

Swiss Franc

20.0% Swiss Gov.Bonds 7-10Y $CH0440081393 (-0.15%)

-------------------------------------20%

Swiss Gold

20.0% Gold $EWG2 (+2.8%)

-------------------------------------20%

==========100%==========

The reserve must be structured in such a way that it is not torn apart in a crisis. In the best-case scenario, parts of the reserve should even rise during crises.

This is why part of it consists of government bonds; in economic crises, interest rates are generally lowered, which is why long-term bonds should rise. Currency crises are also conceivable, which is why we diversify across currencies. (EUR / USD and CHF)

As inflationary phases can certainly occur, I have decided to include inflation-indexed government bonds and gold.

The total of 4% in money market funds exists in order to have a volatility-free position.

This reserve is not a standalone, it should be seen as part of a global portfolio and can make up between 10% and 30% of the total portfolio.

It is not intended to generate returns, but merely to compensate for inflation and to remain stable in value during crises.

The strategy:

As an anchor point we use the all-time high of the $ACWI (USD) from -10% we invest step by step. We try to buy the ACWI with increasing leverage. As there is no 2x ACWI, FTSE All-World, MSCI World or similar, we have to build our own as best we can. I don't want to use certificates because they have a counterparty risk. That's why I only use ETFs and ETCs.

Mode 1 ACWI -10% - Lev. 1.25x - Correction

5.00% MSCI USA 2X Lev. $CL2 (-7.41%)

11.0% World ex USA $EXUS (-1.69%)

4.0% Emerging Markets $EIMI (-2.44%)

-------------------------------------20%

Mode 2 ACWI -20% - 1.82x Lev - Crisis

12.0% MSCI USA 2X Lev. $CL2 (-7.41%)

6.8% Euro Stoxx 50 2X Lev. $LVE (-3.11%)

1.7% FTSE 100 2X Lev. $LUK2

4.5% Japan $PRAJ (-2.02%)

-------------------------------------25%

Mode 3 ACWI -30% - 2.35x Lev - Escalation I

12.0% MSCI USA 2X Lev. $CL2 (-7.41%)

4.8% Euro Stoxx 50 2X Lev. $LVE (-3.11%)

1.2% FTSE 100 2X Lev. $LUK2

9.5% Total World 3X Lev.$3VTE

-------------------------------------27,5%

Mode 4 ACWI- 40% - 3x Lev. - Escalation II

27.5% Total World 3X Lev. $3VTE

-------------------------------------27,5%

==========100%==========

Rebalancing

After the crash is before the crash, the investment reserve must be replenished.

After the price has recovered a distance of approx. 60% from the low to the top (ACWI), I would recommend selling all Total World 3X Lev. positions and thus filling the reserve.

The rest of the reserve can then be filled with your savings rates and partial sales of the 2x positions.

Since we do not put the return from this "trade" completely back into the bond, but keep a part of the "Do-It-Yourself-Leveraged-Getto-ACWI", we build up a small leverage over time, at favorable conditions.

Problems and risks:

Especially if it goes down further than 50%, things can get ugly.

In the 2019 financial crisis, for example, we would have made -58%. As a result, the recovery would have taken 1 year longer than if we had bought a normal ACWI. However, in all other corrections (including Corona), we would have come out of the crisis better with this strategy and would have generated an annual outperformance of 1-2% p.a. after tax (varies depending on the period).

In long bull markets, without significant corrections, this strategy underperforms. In sideways markets, we should outperform a 100% equity portfolio due to the interest income.

It is not entirely clear which part of the investment reserve will be sold first and which last. Depending on the nature of the crisis, some shares may rise and others may fall.

If it is a debt crisis, for example, it may not be wise to sell your gold right at the beginning. If it is an economic crisis, long-dated bonds are king, although inflation-linked bonds will probably suffer somewhat.

If you don't want to be caught on the wrong foot here, you can always sell 50% of the best-performing asset and 50% of the worst-performing asset at the same time.

Which wouldn't be a good thing if we had two cycles in quick succession before we had the opportunity to rebalance.

Colorful pictures:

I have recreated the period from 01.01.2018 to 01.01.2025 in ExtraETF.

Unfortunately, you can't currently share the portfolio there, which is why I've used a few screenshots here.

I chose this period because I am familiar with it and it had both negative and positive interest rates. In addition, there were a total of 3 drops of more than 10% and a bond crash.

Note during the negative interest rate phase, the portfolio held no bonds (except the inflation-indexed ones) and instead held negative interest cash.

Here you can see a

100% FTSE-All World $VWCE (-2.89%) vs

80% FTSE-All World + 20% investment reserve.

Maximum Drawdown VS FTSE-All World

Although we buy leveraged products, the maximum drawdown is lower, at least as long as it does not go lower than approx. 35%.

The meme for Sunday (even if it's not Sunday):

I have created an 80% FTSE All-World + 20% Reserve portfolio starting 01.01.2025 and will continue to maintain this, so everyone can see the real performance of this module. And of course I will update you when we are down 10%.

What do you think of the pyramized investment reserve and the Do-It-Yourself-Leveraged-Getto-ACWI?

Hello everyone,

briefly about me:

I completed my training as a real estate agent two years ago and started my own business a year ago. Since then, I have set up a property management company and a real estate agency. I currently hold a slightly higher proportion of cash in order to be able to make investments in the company.

My aim is to make passive provisions for retirement with ETFs on the one hand and to buy individual stocks that I like or that have recently experienced a price slide on the other. In this way, I want to benefit from the recovery in the short term and take a few profits on the side.

This is how I am currently investing in my ETFs:

• S&P 500: 60%
• Euro Stoxx 600: 40%

I have deliberately decided against a $ACWI as I prefer to determine the weighting between America and Europe myself. I also don't invest in emerging market ETFs such as $XMME (-2.67%) as I find them too risky.

My crypto allocation is currently very high due to the recent price increases. I will also be selling Doge and XRP soon or taking profits.

I would be interested to know what you think of this strategy, whether you would do anything differently or which buys/sells you would consider.

Hello lovelies,

I would like to share my portfolio with you. With the sale of $MC (-1.04%) and a small profit, I'm getting closer to my goal - just the $IWDA (-2.93%) , $BTC (-1.16%) and gold - ever closer.

To be honest, I am very happy that these "old burdens" are gradually giving way to my portfolio. With $DHL (-0.98%) and $DG (+1.27%) I am still waiting for the sale until it is more or less sustainable for me. $FYB (-1.89%) will then also be sold with a plus.

And when I see that other people also want to go this way, I'm very happy :)

P.S. The $ACWI I'm saving for my little son

The fund has the msci world as a benchmark and aims to outperform it over 5 years, it also performs better in the long term (see pictures) than $ACWI and $HMWO (-2.97%) but also performs quite similarly... if you compare it to a pure tech etf it performed better than the Rothschild (msci world 30% tech, Rothschild 40%)

I'm actually more of a fan of etfs than funds, this is an experiment, let's see what comes out of it, but I'd be interested to know what you think of the Edmond de Rothschild fund house and what you think of the fund

happy new year

I would like to tell you about my little project that has kept me busy over the last month :)

I'm a fan of sentiment indicators and I'm sure everyone here is familiar with the CNN Fear and Greed Index(1)

This index uses various indicators to determine how fearful or greedy market participants currently are.

However, there is not really any data going back very far, which is why I have created my own Fear and Greed Index. Firstly, it goes back to 2000 and secondly, it consists of more indicators that can be weighted manually.

This is my favorite weighting:

Which indicators are used?

The CNN Index uses the following:

(All "companies" always refer to S&P 500 $SPY (-3.88%) companies)

• S&P500 Momentum (S&P500 $SPY (-3.88%) Index against its 125 EMA)
• Stock Price Strength (companies at 52-week high vs 52-week low)
• Stock Price Breadth (volume of companies with price gains vs price losses)
• Put-call ratio (number of put vs. call options)
• Market Volatility (VIX $VIX vs 50 day EMA)
• Safe Haven Demand (Price Gains vs Bond Yields (10Y))
• Junk Bond Demand (Spread between Junk Bonds vs Treasury Yields)

I also use these indicators, including the following additional ones:

• University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment (consumer sentiment survey)
• AAII Investor Sentiment (investor sentiment survey)
• Margin Debt Ratio (measures investment purchases on credit (leveraged positions))
• Insider Transactions (insider buying vs insider selling)
• 10Y Treasury Yield (coupon of the 10-year US bond)
• YieldCurve (Coupon of the 10Y - Coupon of the 2Y US bond)

the following indicators signal greed (higher values => greed):

• S&P500 $SPY (-3.88%) well above 125 EMA
• Stock Price Strength (many companies at annual high vs. annual low)
• Stock Price Breadth (high volume on price gains)
• Safe Haven Demand (high price gains vs bond yields)
• Consumer Sentiment (good consumer sentiment)
• AAII Investor Sentiment (bullish investor sentiment)
• Margin Debt Ratio (high and highly leveraged positions)
• 10Y Treasury Yield (can also indicate a weak current situation in a recession, but I opted for the long-term positive outlook, which is indicated by a high yield)

the following indicators signal Fear (higher values => Fear):

• Put-call ratio (more bets on falling prices)
• Market Volatility (more volatility expresses nervousness)
• Junk bond demand (higher risk premium for junk bonds)
• Insider Transactions (higher BUYs as a signal of fear, as smart money is considered here. The highest buy/sell ratios were seen during recessions)
• YieldCurve (higher spread than a signal from Fear, often in recessions when short-term prospects are extremely poor, but in general I didn't find the indicator very good, which is why I no longer have it in the final version)

There is data that is available daily, while I only have access to others after 2 months, which is why my index generally lags behind CNN's Fear and Greed (CNN in BLUE, mine in GREEN):

(here I find CNN's index way too low in the 2021 tech boom period)

Currently, there is also a big divergence. While the CNN index has plummeted to 30 from 67, my index is still at 75 from 94.

I've been thinking about training an AI model that calculates a good investment strategy for me and optimizes the return or the Sharpe ratio (risk-adjusted return), for example. Here you could train on different ETFs. However, this will probably lead to overfitting (the model learns exact values from the past and not general strategies). Overfitting could perhaps be reduced somewhat by training on a random index, so the model has to find a strategy that can cope with a random ETF.

In general, it should be noted that the Fear and Greed Index only covers the US market. It probably works best on US indices $SPY (-3.88%)
$CSNDX (-4.87%) but global strategies should also work well, as the US share is usually over 60% $IWDA (-2.93%)
$ACWI . Europe or EM probably have a slightly lower correlation $EXSA (-1.36%)
$EIMI (-2.44%)

Nevertheless, the US dominates the world and therefore a US sentiment index should also be a global sentiment index.

Maybe I'll make the index publicly available, we'll see.

Now it's your turn:

What would interest you in connection with this index?

What could be done differently, added, etc.?

I wish you all a Merry Christmas🌟🎄🌟

1) https://edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed

I have now sold my small position $MNST (-1.26%) now sold.

I bought the position back on 23.03.2022 as it was included in various analyses and almost all analysts saw a buy in the share. As a result, I actually bought it quite naively. Simply to get back into the stock market after buying a house.

True to the motto: there can't be more than 0!

In the meantime, I no longer take such a naïve view and the current figures and forecasts for the coming years, as well as the situation surrounding $CELH and the general situation in the energy drinks sector have finally persuaded me to sell this position.

I will use the amount to increase the $ACWI again soon.

Hello everyone,

I want to set up a small share portfolio for my mother-in-law for her pension.

The investment horizon is around 15 years.

She plans to pay in €250 per month.

As soon as the subsidized equity pension option is available (2026), this will also be used.

Now I'm wavering between several options "70-30" method from $IWDA (-2.93%) and $XMME (-2.67%) or a $ACWI .

I could also imagine adding a $XDWT (-5.76%) to add.

Do you have any suggestions or impressions?

Thank you for your ideas!

#aktienrente
#etfs
#rente

So, after my lukewarm stumble onto the stage of the community recently, now for real:

Hello everyone (friendly nods to all),

I've been a mostly silent reader for a while now, but I'd like to introduce myself - even if I don't know what I'm up to - in keeping with local custom:

I am 55 & a civil servant in the Federal Civil Service, which puts me in the fortunate position (I hope) of not having to rely on additional income from investments for a materially bearable retirement (in twelve years' time, I would just about reach retirement without deductions after 40 years in the civil service). Investment is therefore essentially a consumption alternative, a safety cushion and - later - intended for my sons (living with their mother, 17 & 13 years old; each with their own portfolios / savings plans). My investment horizon is therefore open ended (or determined biologically or by the legitimate major needs of the offspring).

My investment history - still perceptible in the portfolio presented here - begins in 1996/1997 with the first (and later unfortunately also the second) placement of the $DTE (+0.41%) T-share and the IPO of $PSM (+0.33%) ProSieben (which has since more than made up for its initial investment through dividends, good boy). At some point, he inherited the current e.on position from his grandparents $EOAN (+1.73%) e.on position and a position in $VOW3 (-1.32%) Volkswagen, which I sold several years later on the advice of my savings bank at the time (bygones).

Then nothing for a long time (studies/traineeship, career start - I was "investing in my current account" and couldn't even manage to process my business trip expenses on time, tststs).

With a wife and children came the need to make provisions (the little guys simply cost a tidy sum through the cycle), which I initially did through sporadic ad hoc investments:

In particular hubris, at the beginning of the subprime crisis I trusted the investment banks to have everything under control and bought shares in $DBK (-2.02%) Deutsche Bank (close to ATH), Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch (the relics can be found as a minus at $BAC (-3.12%) Bank of America for Bear Stearns and - invisibly - a tax loss carryforward to offset the now quite respectable $JPM (-3.14%) J.P. Morgan position for Merrill Lynch), $DBK (-2.02%) with additional purchases slowly creeping back into a "perhaps at some point back to zero" zone.

Otherwise, a number of active funds ($n/a LU0557858130, $n/a LU1143163779, $n/a IE00BG7PHW03, $n/a (+1.29%) LU1496713741, $n/a (+0.07%) DE0008474750, $n/a GB0030932676, $n/a (-1.53%) LU1864952335 and predecessors), of which only $n/a (-1.14%) Pictet Water had actually performed noticeably positively on a time-weighted basis.

From around 2015, I then gradually started to populate the current portfolio with various equity and ETF savings plans at ING ($GOOG (-3.57%) Alphabet C, $AAPL (-5.38%) Apple, $KO (-1.11%) Coca-Cola, $NESN (+0.49%) Nestlé, $BAYN (+0.18%) Bayer (ouch!), $SIE (-0.65%) Siemens, $DIS (-4.27%) Walt Disney, $PFE (-2.76%) Pfizer, $PR1J (-2.08%), $FLXC (-2.87%), $FLXK (-2.14%), $EXS1 (-0.91%), $LCUK (-1.52%), $C060, $XMUS (-3.6%), $DBXW (-3.05%), mostly at 50 euros/month), supplemented by a few nicely timed individual purchases in $AAPL (-5.38%) , when it was still trading at around 80 euros before the 3:1 stock split, as well as $MT (-1.86%) AcelorMittal and $BHP (-2.58%) (mini position, but with a nice dividend yield since then).

With supply chain problems and inflation emerging at the end of corona/beginning of Ukraine, I then started to invest in another portfolio, the actually far too expensive $SPAG (+1.55%) iShares Agribusiness and $EXV6 (-1.58%) iShares STOXX Europe 600 Basic Resources as a hedge against the rising cost of living that had gone wrong (had bet on more pronounced sectoral greed-flation).

Since I have since followed the recommendations of $VWCE (-2.89%) resp. $ACWI (Glashaus!) in the meantime, the aggregated lump and the $AAPL (-5.38%) and $GOOG (-3.57%) was getting a bit scary, but I didn't want to touch the corresponding equity savings plans (more on this in a moment), I put my basic trust in the long-term out-performance of the US equity market into practice by investing in two "equal weight" index funds, namely with $WEBA (-2.81%) on the NASDAQ100 (also with a savings plan) and $XDEW (-2.82%) on the S&P500 (one-off investment only).

Some of this, especially the earlier investment history, is foreign to my Getquin portfolio history, as I only entered this after a portfolio reorganization in early 2023.

Over the years, my employer has steadily introduced stricter regulations for private financial transactions, which currently makes it practically impossible for me to invest in individual names or funds with certain predominant industry shares. However, in an exemplary manner under the rule of law, previously existing savings plans were protected in the respective iterations of the tightening, so that I jealously continue the remaining share savings plans (see above lump at $GOOG (-3.57%) and in particular $AAPL (-5.38%)).

I currently save monthly as follows (savings rate): Grandfathering: $GOOG (-3.57%) (100), $AAPL (-5.38%) (50), $DIS (-4.27%) (50), $PFE (-2.76%) (50), $KO (-1.11%) (50); "regular": $VWCE (-2.89%) (currently 520 with annual 4% dynamic), $SPAG (+1.55%) (100), $WEBA (-2.81%) (100), $EXV6 (-1.58%) (100), $10AJ (-0.51%) (100) and - before first-time execution - (100). $SDIP (-1.6%) (100).

In addition, I have reflected certain market assessments at the respective point in time through individual purchases in country ETFs (long-term catch-up potential of the emerging markets through $HMEF (-2.46%), $FLXC (-2.87%), $FLXK (-2.14%) - $FLXI (-1.15%) was now too expensive for me and the Indian economy was not sufficiently represented by companies listed there; the sleeping innovation giant Japan through $PR1J (-2.08%), "luxury always works" even in times of inflation through $DX2G (-1.3%)Europe - especially CH and UK - as a general counterweight to the US through $VEUR (-1.33%) and the sensible Nordics by $XNZN (-1.77%)), so that there is now a colorful bouquet of ETFs. However, I am not fundamentally dissatisfied with this, especially as far as these are distributing & savings plan-capable in my ING portfolio, so that their distributions (from 75 euros) are automatically reinvested ($VEUR (-1.33%) - is so large that this could work for each of the quarterly distributions, $DX2G (-1.3%), $PR1J (-2.08%)).

I think that as long as I am still subject to my employer's investment restrictions, I will only make marginal changes to this. For a "fire and forget" portfolio, however, I could imagine switching to a 70/20/10 portfolio in the medium term. $WEBG (-2.96%), $HMEF (-2.46%), $SDIP (-1.6%) (@ING: please $SDIP (-1.6%) savings plan, thank you!). Let's see what the end of PFOF brings on the cost side, especially for savings plans.

So, that's it; thanks for your patience and perseverance. You're welcome to give me tips, but as I said, my hands are largely tied (and I don't think much of the crypto tulip bulbs until they become an actual means of payment, not just for buying sinister services on the dark web)...

Here's to a successful investment community (&thanks for having me)!