Hello Community,

August is over and it's time for the transparent monthly review. The portfolio has reached a new high of € 36,188. It was a month of contrasts, in which the strength of some satellites offset the weakness in the tech sector.

1. the performance: 🚀

Beating the market 📈

With a monthly performance of +0,94% I am very satisfied. As the chart shows, my portfolio clearly outperformed the broad market (FTSE All-World: -0.31%) and the major US indices (S&P 500: -1.11%, NASDAQ100: -2.23%). The result proves the strength of diversification: while my tech stocks corrected, other sectors carried the performance.

2. my buys & sells: 🛒

None ❌

In August, I deliberately kept my feet still and did not make any individual purchases or sales. My focus was on waiting for the important quarterly reports and preparing my tactical purchases for September.

3. my savings plans & purchases in September: Tactical allocation 💸

As you know, I take a flexible approach to my individual shares and adjust my purchases on a monthly basis. Only my ETF savings plans run consistently. My allocation for the start of September looks like this:

➡️ $ACWI
$WSML (+0.8%) (150 €): As always, the foundation is being consistently strengthened.

➡️ $MELI (-3.51%) (€150) & Datadog (€75): Here I continue to build on my core conviction positions.

➡️ $TEM (+1.97%) (125 €): This is my tactical pick for the month. I am opening a position in a highly potent and diversifying bet on the AI medical revolution.

➡️ $DDOG (+0.21%) (75 €): A core position in my cl infrastructure cluster. Digital transformation and the need for cloud monitoring and security are unwavering megatrends for me.

➡️ $NOVO B (+1.06%) (3 €): This is not an active allocation, but the automatic reinvestment of dividends received to maximize the compound interest effect for this quality position.

4. tops & flops: A reflection of the rotation 📉📈

Top mover: 🟢

The list was topped this month by the spectacular performance of $IREN (+7.51%) (+60.69%), which is benefiting from the continuing demand for energy for AI data centers. My speculative bet on American Lithium (+20.00%) also showed strength. The recovery in $BABA (-0.87%) (+10.21%) following good news on the cloud division and AI chip development.

Flop mover: 🔴

As expected, my tech stocks were hit here. $CRWD (-1.45%) (-11.16%) and $DDOG (+0.21%) (-5.45%) suffered and the weak market environment for growth stocks, although the quarterly figures were fundamentally good. Also $1211 (-2.74%) (-8.22%) also suffered after disappointing figures; the situation here remains tense.

Conclusion:

August was perfect proof of why broad diversification across different sectors and themes is so crucial. Weakness in one area (US tech) was more than compensated for by strength in others (energy, China recovery). My flexible approach to monthly purchases allows me to react specifically to such market phases.

How did your August❓ go?

Which shares did you buy tactically ❓

I look forward to the exchange in the comments!

Hello community,

I would like to present my revised portfolio strategy to you today and am looking forward to your opinions and constructive feedback. I am pursuing a core-satellite approach.

The core (approx. 40%):

My foundation for long-term and stable asset accumulation. Here I rely on the MSCI World and the Nasdaq 100 in order to participate in global economic growth in a broadly diversified manner. Simple, cost-effective and proven.

The satellites (approx. 60%):

Here I pursue clear, thesis-based investments in individual stocks. These can be divided into six thematic clusters:

1. the AI infrastructure (cloud, data & security):

My biggest bet. I believe that the real winners of the AI revolution are the companies that provide the foundation.

Positions:

Cloudflare, CrowdStrike, Snowflake, Datadog.

2. the fintech revolution in emerging markets:

The disruption of traditional banking in populous and digitally savvy regions.

Positions:

MercadoLibre, Nu Holdings.

3. global champions & turnarounds:

Here I bundle global market leaders that I consider undervalued or that are on the verge of a comeback.

Positions:

Alibaba, BYD. For me, these are not speculative gambles, but counter-cyclical bets on dominance in their respective markets.

4. industrial excellence & luxury brands:

A bet on undisputed market leaders in highly profitable niches with strong moats - from armor to high-tech automation to luxury sports cars and one of the best investors of all time.

Positions: Rheinmetall, Ferrari, Berkshire Hathaway, Keyence.

5. future technologies & energy:

The thesis here is clear: more AI and more data centers require massively more energy.

Positions:

The Uranium ETF, Iris Energy, American Lithium.

6. megatrends: health & sustainability:

Investments in global market leaders that benefit from two unstoppable social developments: demographic change and the need for a circular economy.

PositionsNovo Nordisk, Tomra Systems.

My question to the Getquin community:

What is your opinion on this strategy and allocation?

#DepotCheck #PortfolioReview #Feedback #CoreSatellite #Strategy

$NET (-4.03%)
$CRWD (-1.45%)
$NOVO B (+1.06%)
$1211 (-2.74%)
$BABA (-0.87%)
$IREN (+7.51%)
$NLR (-0.65%)
$ACWI
$WSML (+0.8%)
$RACE (-0.79%)
$BRK.B (+0.46%)
$RHM (-0.35%)
$6861 (+1.69%)
$DDOG (+0.21%)
$MELI (-3.51%)
$SNOW (-2.55%)
$NU (+0.34%)
$TOM (-2.45%)

Hello everyone,

I have a problem with TradeRepublic that I don't quite understand and I hope you can help me.

Last week I sold the $ACWI with a profit of about 604€ and switched to the $SPYI (+0.12%) and switched to the GetQuin shows me this profit correctly, but TradeRepublic does not, although TR shows both the (weighted) buy-in and the sales price correctly, see the attached pictures. However, how they can show a loss with a €0.97 higher sales price compared to the purchase price is beyond me.

I received the following reply to my query to support:

"Sales in a position that has been built up through multiple purchases are treated on a first-in-first-out basis. This means that the basis for calculating your sale is the entry price of the shares purchased first."

That can't really be the case, can it?

The profit that I have actually made is not taxed.

I had described here https://getqu.in/wtMaho/ described an investment reserve that can generate an excess return with similar or lower volatility than the overall market.

Very abbreviated:

We hold 20% in cash bonds and gold and start buying in reset, pyranized with increasing leverage.

What has changed since the last post?

1. all US bonds and US dollar cash have been removed from the portfolio, the uncertainties surrounding the Mar-a-Lago Accord are simply too great in relation to the opportunity to take a few percentage points in currency gains.

2. as it was (rightly) pointed out that the strategy is somewhat fragmented, I decided to make a few small adjustments.

The inflation-linked government bonds have left the portfolio. On reflection, money market funds and long-dated bonds are completely sufficient to compensate for inflation. (thanks for the comment @SchlaubiSchlumpf )

The investment reserve therefore looks like this:

-------------------------------------------

EURO

30.0% Money Market $CSH2 (-0%)

30.0% German Gov. Bonds 7+Y $X03G (-0.08%)

-------------------------------------60%

Swiss Franc

20.0% Swiss Gov.Bonds 7-10Y $CH0440081393 (+0.17%)

-------------------------------------20%

Swiss Gold

20.0% Gold $EWG2 (+0.8%)

-------------------------------------20%

==========100%==========

3. on the way south, the portfolio has already been rebalanced twice.

In concrete terms, this means that bonds have been sold and the $VWCE (+0%) bought so that the 80/20 ratio is maintained.

The $ACWI in USD broke through the threshold of 10% to its all-time high today, whereby the first still leveraged position was built up.

Purchased were:

2.5% MSCI World Ex USA $EXUS (+0.58%)

1.0% MSCI USA 2x $CL2 (-0.81%)

This means that the first 17.5% of our investment reserve is now invested.

The next purchase will be made when the $ACWI 20% away from the ATH, which would then be around $100.00

Just for your information, the All Countys World Index $ACWI (in USD) is up 1% YTD,

and in Euro 3% down. (07 March 2025 11:45 - UTC:+1:00)

So if anyone thinks this is a crash, then the portfolio is probably too concentrated.

By the way, on March 3 and 4 the Dow Jones fell by more than 1000 points, @DonaldTrump. 😁

Foreword:

An investment reserve can be a great thing, it smoothes out volatility and in extreme phases you have the opportunity to implement something meaningful in your portfolio, which has a very calming effect psychologically.

Unfortunately, the expected additional return from buy the dip often fails to materialize, as the opportunity costs eat everything up again.

Very nicely described here by Gerd Kommer:

https://gerd-kommer.de/buy-the-dip/

But what if we turn a few screws, don't hold our investment reserves in cash and buy leveraged?

I have thought too much about this topic and built a model for a war chest, which I am also implementing myself.

Building up the reserve:

Investment Reserve

-------------------------------------------

EURO

30.0% Money Market / 0-1y Bonds EUR $CSH2 (-0%)

30.0% German Gov. Bonds 7+Y $X03G (-0.08%)

-------------------------------------30%

Swiss Franc

20.0% Swiss Gov.Bonds 7-10Y $CH0440081393 (+0.17%)

-------------------------------------20%

Swiss Gold

20.0% Gold $EWG2 (+0.8%)

-------------------------------------20%

==========100%==========

The reserve must be structured in such a way that it is not torn apart in a crisis. In the best-case scenario, parts of the reserve should even rise during crises.

This is why part of it consists of government bonds; in economic crises, interest rates are generally lowered, which is why long-term bonds should rise.

As inflationary phases may well occur, I have decided to include gold, especially as gold has a low correlation with equities.

The total of 30% in money market funds exists in order to have a volatility-free position.

This reserve is not a standalone, it should be seen as part of a global portfolio and can make up between 10% and 30% of the total portfolio.

It is not intended to generate returns, but merely to compensate for inflation and to remain stable in value during crises.

The strategy:

As an anchor point we use the all-time high of the $ACWI (USD) from -10% we invest step by step. We try to buy the ACWI with increasing leverage. As there is no 2x ACWI, FTSE All-World, MSCI World or similar, we have to build our own as best we can. I only try to use ETFs and ETCs as long as this is practical, as they have no counterparty risk.

Mode 1 ACWI -10% - Lev. 1.28x - Correction

5.0% MSCI USA 2X Lev. $CL2 (-0.81%)

12.5% World ex USA $EXUS (+0.58%)

-------------------------------------17,5%

Mode 2 ACWI -20% - 1.55x Lev - Crisis

5.0% MSCI USA 2X Lev. $CL2 (-0.81%)

4.5% Euro Stoxx 50 2X Lev. $LVE (+0%)

1.5% FTSE 100 2X Lev. $LUK2

3.0% Japan $PRAJ (+1.76%)

6.0% Emerging markets $EIMI (+0.29%)

-------------------------------------20,0%

Mode 3 ACWI -30% - 1.68x Lev - Escalation I

12.5% MSCI USA 2X Lev. $CL2 (-0.81%)

6.0% Euro Stoxx 50 2X Lev. $LVE (+0%)

2.0% FTSE 100 2X Lev. $LUK2

4.0% Japan $PRAJ (+1.76%)

5.5% Emerging markets $EIMI (+0.29%)

-------------------------------------30,0%

Mode 4 ACWI- 40% - 3x Lev. - Escalation II

32.5% MSCI ACWI 2x Lev. $null (+1.56%)

-------------------------------------32,5%

==========100%==========

Rebalancing

After the crash is before the crash, the investment reserve must be replenished.

After the price has recovered a distance of approx. 60% from the low to the top (ACWI), I would recommend selling all MSCI ACWI 2X Lev. positions and thus filling the reserve.

You can then fill the rest of the reserve with your savings rates and partial sales of the 2x positions.

Since we do not put the return from this "trade" completely back into the bond, but keep a part of the "Do-It-Yourself-Leveraged-Getto-ACWI", we build up a small leverage over time, at favorable conditions.

Problems and risks:

Especially if it goes down further than 50%, things can get ugly.

In the 2019 financial crisis, for example, we would have made -58%. As a result, the recovery would have taken 1 year longer than if we had bought a normal ACWI. However, in all other corrections (including Corona), we would have come out of the crisis better with this strategy and would have generated an annual outperformance of 1-2% p.a. after tax (varies depending on the period).

In long bull markets, without significant corrections, this strategy underperforms. In sideways markets, we should outperform a 100% equity portfolio due to the interest income.

It is not entirely clear which part of the investment reserve will be sold first and which last. Depending on the nature of the crisis, some shares may rise and others may fall.

If it is a debt crisis, for example, it may not be wise to sell your gold right at the beginning. If it is an economic crisis, long-dated bonds are king, although inflation-linked bonds will probably suffer somewhat.

If you don't want to be caught on the wrong foot here, you can always sell 50% of the best-performing asset and 50% of the worst-performing asset at the same time.

Which wouldn't be a good thing if we had two cycles in quick succession before we had the opportunity to rebalance.

Colorful pictures:

I have recreated the period from 01.01.2018 to 01.01.2025 in ExtraETF.

Unfortunately, you can't currently share the portfolio there, which is why I've used a few screenshots here.

I chose this period because I am familiar with it and it had both negative and positive interest rates. In addition, there were a total of 3 drops of more than 10% and a bond crash.

Note during the negative interest rate phase, the portfolio held no bonds (except the inflation-indexed ones) and instead held negative interest cash.

Here you can see a

100% FTSE-All World $VWCE (+0%) vs

80% FTSE-All World + 20% investment reserve.

Maximum Drawdown VS FTSE-All World

Although we buy leveraged products, the maximum drawdown is lower, at least as long as it does not go lower than approx. 35%.

The meme for Sunday (even if it's not Sunday):

I have created an 80% FTSE All-World + 20% Reserve portfolio starting 01.01.2025 and will continue to maintain this, so everyone can see the real performance of this module. And of course I will update you when we are down 10%.

What do you think of the pyramized investment reserve and the Do-It-Yourself-Leveraged-Getto-ACWI?

Hello everyone,

briefly about me:

I completed my training as a real estate agent two years ago and started my own business a year ago. Since then, I have set up a property management company and a real estate agency. I currently hold a slightly higher proportion of cash in order to be able to make investments in the company.

My aim is to make passive provisions for retirement with ETFs on the one hand and to buy individual stocks that I like or that have recently experienced a price slide on the other. In this way, I want to benefit from the recovery in the short term and take a few profits on the side.

This is how I am currently investing in my ETFs:

• S&P 500: 60%
• Euro Stoxx 600: 40%

I have deliberately decided against a $ACWI as I prefer to determine the weighting between America and Europe myself. I also don't invest in emerging market ETFs such as $XMME (+0.16%) as I find them too risky.

My crypto allocation is currently very high due to the recent price increases. I will also be selling Doge and XRP soon or taking profits.

I would be interested to know what you think of this strategy, whether you would do anything differently or which buys/sells you would consider.

Hello lovelies,

I would like to share my portfolio with you. With the sale of $MC (+1.65%) and a small profit, I'm getting closer to my goal - just the $IWDA (-0.04%) , $BTC (+1.59%) and gold - ever closer.

To be honest, I am very happy that these "old burdens" are gradually giving way to my portfolio. With $DHL (+0.32%) and $DG (+0.42%) I am still waiting for the sale until it is more or less sustainable for me. $FYB (-4.08%) will then also be sold with a plus.

And when I see that other people also want to go this way, I'm very happy :)

P.S. The $ACWI I'm saving for my little son

The fund has the msci world as a benchmark and aims to outperform it over 5 years, it also performs better in the long term (see pictures) than $ACWI and $HMWO (+0.05%) but also performs quite similarly... if you compare it to a pure tech etf it performed better than the Rothschild (msci world 30% tech, Rothschild 40%)

I'm actually more of a fan of etfs than funds, this is an experiment, let's see what comes out of it, but I'd be interested to know what you think of the Edmond de Rothschild fund house and what you think of the fund

happy new year

I would like to tell you about my little project that has kept me busy over the last month :)

I'm a fan of sentiment indicators and I'm sure everyone here is familiar with the CNN Fear and Greed Index(1)

This index uses various indicators to determine how fearful or greedy market participants currently are.

However, there is not really any data going back very far, which is why I have created my own Fear and Greed Index. Firstly, it goes back to 2000 and secondly, it consists of more indicators that can be weighted manually.

This is my favorite weighting:

Which indicators are used?

The CNN Index uses the following:

(All "companies" always refer to S&P 500 $SPY (-0.16%) companies)

• S&P500 Momentum (S&P500 $SPY (-0.16%) Index against its 125 EMA)
• Stock Price Strength (companies at 52-week high vs 52-week low)
• Stock Price Breadth (volume of companies with price gains vs price losses)
• Put-call ratio (number of put vs. call options)
• Market Volatility (VIX $VIX vs 50 day EMA)
• Safe Haven Demand (Price Gains vs Bond Yields (10Y))
• Junk Bond Demand (Spread between Junk Bonds vs Treasury Yields)

I also use these indicators, including the following additional ones:

• University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment (consumer sentiment survey)
• AAII Investor Sentiment (investor sentiment survey)
• Margin Debt Ratio (measures investment purchases on credit (leveraged positions))
• Insider Transactions (insider buying vs insider selling)
• 10Y Treasury Yield (coupon of the 10-year US bond)
• YieldCurve (Coupon of the 10Y - Coupon of the 2Y US bond)

the following indicators signal greed (higher values => greed):

• S&P500 $SPY (-0.16%) well above 125 EMA
• Stock Price Strength (many companies at annual high vs. annual low)
• Stock Price Breadth (high volume on price gains)
• Safe Haven Demand (high price gains vs bond yields)
• Consumer Sentiment (good consumer sentiment)
• AAII Investor Sentiment (bullish investor sentiment)
• Margin Debt Ratio (high and highly leveraged positions)
• 10Y Treasury Yield (can also indicate a weak current situation in a recession, but I opted for the long-term positive outlook, which is indicated by a high yield)

the following indicators signal Fear (higher values => Fear):

• Put-call ratio (more bets on falling prices)
• Market Volatility (more volatility expresses nervousness)
• Junk bond demand (higher risk premium for junk bonds)
• Insider Transactions (higher BUYs as a signal of fear, as smart money is considered here. The highest buy/sell ratios were seen during recessions)
• YieldCurve (higher spread than a signal from Fear, often in recessions when short-term prospects are extremely poor, but in general I didn't find the indicator very good, which is why I no longer have it in the final version)

There is data that is available daily, while I only have access to others after 2 months, which is why my index generally lags behind CNN's Fear and Greed (CNN in BLUE, mine in GREEN):

(here I find CNN's index way too low in the 2021 tech boom period)

Currently, there is also a big divergence. While the CNN index has plummeted to 30 from 67, my index is still at 75 from 94.

I've been thinking about training an AI model that calculates a good investment strategy for me and optimizes the return or the Sharpe ratio (risk-adjusted return), for example. Here you could train on different ETFs. However, this will probably lead to overfitting (the model learns exact values from the past and not general strategies). Overfitting could perhaps be reduced somewhat by training on a random index, so the model has to find a strategy that can cope with a random ETF.

In general, it should be noted that the Fear and Greed Index only covers the US market. It probably works best on US indices $SPY (-0.16%)
$CSNDX (-0.67%) but global strategies should also work well, as the US share is usually over 60% $IWDA (-0.04%)
$ACWI . Europe or EM probably have a slightly lower correlation $EXSA (+0.37%)
$EIMI (+0.29%)

Nevertheless, the US dominates the world and therefore a US sentiment index should also be a global sentiment index.

Maybe I'll make the index publicly available, we'll see.

Now it's your turn:

What would interest you in connection with this index?

What could be done differently, added, etc.?

I wish you all a Merry Christmas🌟🎄🌟

1) https://edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed