Hi, does anyone have information why some ARK Etfs, e.g. the $ARKK (+1.03%) can be sold at Scalable but not bought? Thanks for info

1. economic fundamentals

As shown in Chart 2 the nominale US-Bruttoinlandsprodukt has risen by around 50% in the last five years, from around USD 20 trillion to USD 30 trillion. This increase was largely driven by expansive fiscal policy measures, strong consumption and inflationary effects. However, current indications suggest that political demands for lower inflation and reduced government spending could weaken this "boom". An end to the pace of nominal growth could limit long-term peaks in government bond yields, the US dollar and speculative asset classes.

Government spending and budget structure (Chart 11 & Table 1)

Chart 11 shows that cumulative US federal spending over the last twelve months amounted to USD 7.1 trillion. Compared to European countries, it is noticeable that the US invests a significantly lower proportion of its budget in education (4%), while spending on healthcare (27%) and debt servicing (13%) is prioritized. European countries such as Germany and France, on the other hand, dedicate larger budget shares to social areas such as education (13% and 11% respectively) and pensions (24% and 25% respectively).

2. technical market signals

Simultaneous decline in bond yields and equities (Chart 3)

Chart 3 illustrates the current pattern of parallel declines in 10-year US government bond yields and equities. $NDAQ (+0.66%) . Such down-in-yields/down-in-stocks phases have historically occurred in crisis years such as 2000, 2002 and 2008. A key indicator for observation is the XBD-Broker-Dealer-IndexAs broker dealers are closely linked to the financial markets, the index is an important indicator of the health of the fin sector and general market sentiment.

Correction of speculative "Bro Bubble" stocks (Chart 4)

Like Chart 4 shows, one particular group, including$NVDA (+1.02%) , $TSLA (+2.64%)
$META (+1.11%)
$ARKK (+1.03%) , has fallen by around 25% since January 20, 2024. These stocks had previously gained 55% between the US election and the inauguration in January. The current decline indicates a reduction in risk, i.e. a switch to defensive sectors.

Capital flows and buy-the-dip mentality (Chart 14)

Despite the market volatility, Bank of America retail clients recorded the third-largest weekly inflows into equities in March 2024 since records began (Chart 14). This shows that many investors continue to focus on short-term recoveries.

3. sentiment and position indicators

Mixed sentiment in the Bull & Bear indicator (Chart 25 & 26)

An aggregated sentiment indicator (Chart 25 & 26), which takes into account factors such as hedge fund positioning, credit market techniques and capital flows, is currently in neutral territory (5.2 out of 10). A fall in the indicator to 2.0 would historically trigger a buy signal.

Cash allocation and high-yield bond spreads

The average cash allocation in portfolios recently rose to 4%, which is close to the threshold of 4.1% (Chart 25). At the same time, the risk premiums for US high-yield bonds (HY-Spreads) are at 340 basis points. A rise to 400 basis points could mark a low point. HY spreads measure the difference between the yields on high-yield bonds (junk bonds) and the yields on safe government bonds (US Treasuries). Narrower spreads (lower values) indicate a higher risk appetite on the part of investors, while wider spreads (higher values) indicate increased risk aversion. If the cash allocation rises above 4.1%, this could signal that the correction has bottomed out and a recovery is imminent.

4. historical comparisons and scenarios

Political uncertainty and real yields (Chart 5 & 13)

The Chart 5 (NFIB-Unsicherheitsindex) shows that small US companies are increasingly expressing concerns about tax and regulatory policy. The NFIB Uncertainty Index measures the uncertainty of small and medium-sized companies in the USA with regard to economic and political factors. A rise in the index indicates that companies are increasingly concerned about future developments. At the same time Chart 13 illustrates the inverse correlation between US real yields (10-year) and gold prices, which positions gold as a hedge against falling real interest rates. When real yields fall (due to lower nominal yields or higher inflation), gold becomes more attractive. When real yields fall, gold prices tend to rise as investors look for safe investments.

Summary:

The current market correction shows characteristics of a typical technical correction, but is not yet complete. Decisive signals for an end would be

An increase in the cash allocation to over 4.1% (Chart 25),

HY spreads of 400 basis points (Chart 3),

A stabilization of the XBD broker-dealer index above 750 points (Chart 4).

Historical comparisons suggest that the $SPY (+0.97%) reaches a potential support zone at around 5,300 points. Political decisions, particularly on monetary and fiscal policy, remain a critical factor

$ARKK (+1.03%)
$ZM (+0.15%)

04.12.2024

ARKK beats Nasdaq + China strikes back: Exports of some rare earths to the USA banned + Salesforce still somewhat more confident about the full year + Vow ASA on the verge of a breakthrough in the cruise sector + Northern Data Group plans to build a data center in the USA + JPMorgan raises target for Rheinmetall to 800 euros - 'Overweight'

ARKK $ARKK (+1.03%)beats Nasdaq - investor bets on five shares

• Ark Invest's flagship fund has recently risen five times faster than the tech index.
• Nevertheless, Cathie Wood is restructuring her portfolio and focusing on one sector in particular.
• https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/anlagestrategie/trends/cathie-wood-arkk-schlaegt-nasdaq-investorin-setzt-auf-fuenf-aktien/100092080.html

China strikes back: exports of some rare earths to the USA banned

• The trade dispute between the USA and China is intensifying.
• Following the new restrictions imposed by the USA on Monday, a response was issued immediately.
• This is aimed at raw materials that are essential for the semiconductor industry and for which China has a considerable quantity.
• https://www.computerbase.de/news/wirtschaft/china-schlaegt-zurueck-exporte-von-einigen-seltenen-erden-in-die-usa-untersagt.90529/

Salesforce $CRM (-0.11%)is even more confident about the year as a whole

• SAP's industry colleague Salesforce is somewhat more confident following growth in the third quarter.
• The software specialist for customer relationship management is forecasting revenue of USD 37.8 to 38.0 billion (up to EUR 36.2 billion) for the 2024/25 financial year, which runs until the end of January.
• The operating profit margin adjusted for special effects is also expected to reach 32.9%, as the company announced on Tuesday after the close of the US stock exchange.
• This means that the lower end of the revenue range is now slightly higher than before; the margin target was raised by 0.1 percentage points.
• The shares rose by almost four percent in US after-hours trading.

Vow ASA $VOW (-0.85%)before the breakthrough in the cruise sector

• The Norwegian company Vow ASA is on the verge of a major breakthrough in the cruise sector.
• The subsidiary Scanship has agreed the main terms and conditions with a European shipyard for the delivery of advanced equipment to several cruise ships.
• The expected order value is around 500 million Norwegian kroner, with the aim of signing the final contract before the end of the year.
• This development underlines Vow's position as the market leader in wastewater treatment and waste recycling in the cruise industry.

Northern Data Group $NB2 (-1.24%)plans to build a data center in the USA

• Portfolio expansion to meet demand for AI and high-performance computing solutions
• Planned output of 120 MW with the possibility of expanding capacity up to 180 MW
• Data center will create up to 100 new jobs and strengthen the local economy

JPMorgan raises target for Rheinmetall $RHM (-2.74%)to 800 euros - 'Overweight'

• The US bank JPMorgan has raised its target price for Rheinmetall from 680 to 800 euros and left its rating at "Overweight".
• This was written by analyst David Perry on Wednesday after a closer look at Europe's fastest growing defense group. Following the latest Capital Markets Day, he raised his earnings estimates by up to 17 percent until 2027.
• Other experts had recently already raised their price targets to 820 euros.

Wednesday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

• ex-dividend of individual stocks

Schlumberger USD 0.28

The Cigna Group USD 1.40

Proximus EUR 0.50

ageas EUR 1.50

• Quarterly figures / Company dates USA / Asia

Untimed: Foot Locker quarterly figures

• Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

09:30 VW: Works meeting at the main plant (Wolfsburg) with CEO Oliver Blume and Labor Minister Hubertus Heil

Untimed: Siemens Annual Report

• Economic data

09:45 IT: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing November FORECAST: 51.5 previous: 52.4

09:50 FR: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing (2nd release) November PROGNOSE: 45.7 1st release: 45.7 PREV: 49.2 Total Purchasing Managers' Index (2nd release) PROGNOSE: 44.8 1st release: 44.8 PREV: 48.1

09:55 DE: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing (2nd release) November FORECAST: 49.4 1st release: 49.4 PREV: 51.6 Total Purchasing Managers' Index (2nd release) FORECAST: 47.3 1st release: 47.3 PREV: 48.6

10:00 EU: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing euro area (2nd release) November PROGNOSE: 49.2 1st release: 49.2 previous: 51.6 Total Purchasing Managers' Index (2nd release) PROGNOSE: 48.1 1st release: 48.1 previous: 50.0

10:30 UK: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI non-manufacturing (2nd release) November PROGNOSIS: n.a. 1st release: 50.0 previous: 52.0

11:00 EU: Producer Prices October Eurozone FORECAST: +0.4% yoy/-3.2% yoy previous: -0.6% yoy/-3.4% yoy

14:15 US: ADP labor market report November private sector employment PROGNOSE: +163,000 jobs previous: +233,000 jobs

15:45 US: Purchasing Managers' Index/PMI Services (2nd release) November PROGNOSIS: 57.0 1st release: 57.0 previous: 55.0

16:00 US: Industrial New Orders October PROGNOSE: +0.2% yoy previous: -0.5% yoy

16:00 US: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index November FORECAST: 55.6 points previous: 56.0 points

19:40 US: Fed Chairman Powell to participate in discussion at New York Times Deal Book Summit

20:00 US: Fed, Beige Book

22:05 DE: Decision on possible changes in the indices of the DAX family of Deutsche Börse

Cathie Wood from Ark Investment Management ($ARKK (+1.03%) ) has reportedly acquired a stake in Elon Musk's
AI startup
xAI acquired. This investment accounts for approx. 2% of the holdings of the Ark Venture Fund of the Ark Venture Fund. xAI has recently raised 6 billion US dollars in a Series B financing round raising a valuation of 24 billion US dollars achieved.

Previously, Ark had invested in OpenAI which accounted for approx. 4% and in Anthropicwhich accounts for approx. 5% of its asset allocation.

Cathie Wood from Ark Invest ($ARKK (+1.03%) )
has today 235k
Tesla ($TSLA (+2.64%) ) shares today. Only last week it bought around 79k shares.

Cathie Wood from Ark Invest ($ARKK (+1.03%) ) has sold 79k shares of Tesla ($TSLA (+2.64%) ) shares in Tesla.

I hardly believe it - Cathie Woods Ark Innovation ETF made 5% plus today 📈

According to classic chart analysis, the breakout and retest has been successful. And it looks like a double bottom formation with a high volume candle in May, indicating significant buying pressure (not from retailers, but from institutions)....

Do you think Bottom is in or is this just a fake out? 👀

Take that, Cathie!!!