2Yr·

Question for the $VNA (-1.01%) investors here:

Are there currently fundamental reasons to buy beyond "prices are low"?

How many are blinded by the insider buying from the Finance Committee?

https://www.finanzen.net/insidertrades/vonovia

Anyone who feels vindicated in their own investment because of the insider purchases should always bear in mind that Markus Braun also bought into $WDI before the thing went to pieces.

https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/aktien/wirecard-insider-alarm-jetzt-kauft-ceo-braun-20201887.html

Personally, I've been out of Vonovia since last year because I think the political risk is currently too high, I don't like the interest rate environment, and Vonovia is sitting on too many properties in need of energy-efficient renovation in the current market situation, which will cost a lot of money for the time being.

Inflation, which I believe will continue for a while, has also reduced the opportunity for significant rent increases to compensate for the investments.

www.finanzen.netVONOVIA AKTIE Insidertrades | Directors Dealings | Insiderhandel | A1ML7J

17 Comments

Jasiek@JasiekStocks

2Yr

What speaks for me in favor of Vonovia? 1) The current stock of a market value of about € 61 billion against about € 40 billion liabilities. 2) The liabilities are secured in the long term until 2030 so currently no excessive burden by the current interest rate environment 3) The state would never manage to ensure the housing for people and maintain. The state needs Vonovia. 4) Due to inflation and Habeck's plans I see less property in private hands in the future but more potential tenants. The current policy destroys the private house as a pension. 5) The apartments of Vonovia are energetically above the national average -> No above-average burden by the plans of the EU 6) Vonovia holds shares in many smaller housing companies. 7) Cash balance of about € 6 billion. Is it possible to swallow stumbling competitors in the foreseeable future? 8) The volume of trades is very high and that although there is nothing new from Vonovia which was not already priced in 4 weeks ago -> panic selling from my point of view. What speaks for me against Vonovia? 1) The reputation is far worse than what they are. The question is how far will certain groups go here -> expropriation? Even then, the market value is paid. 2) A possible KE. But here I have confidence in the management that they would rather stop the dividend than pay and then do a KE. Now of course there is the point of contention is the fair value of Vonovia properties well estimated ? Can one simply take fair value- liabilities = earnings > market capitalization ? I trust Vonovia here in the point of fair value estimation and think that a buffer of 33% to the liabilities is sufficient. For me personally a clear buy. But of course everyone must know for themselves. I do not understand the Gebashe and the panic around it. May be 2023 / 24 red stand but in the long term, this is for me a Risenchance that offers itself there.

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Dilyar@Dilyar

1Yr

@JasiekStocks Point 1 was also one of the reasons why I joined.

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Pascal@Finanzios

2Yr

I keep my distance from it. I don't really understand the hype at the moment either 🥴.

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Dennis@GordonGekko83

2Yr

@Finanzios Where do you see a hype! For me, the prices rise with a hype, or am I wrong?! Tomorrow it will be exciting in the real estate sector again and it rattles on, if that was not already priced in today?! Aroundtown discloses its figures and will probably cancel its dividend. Could again put pressure on the entire sector. Nonetheless, I think the bottom is not far off. Historically, the sector is exciting now if you catch the stocks that don't go bust. There will be bankruptcies, I am almost certain!

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Pascal@Finanzios

2Yr

@GordonGekko83 I get the hype from various social media channels. There are a few people who are currently getting on board, but I agree with you about the rest.

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Dennis@GordonGekko83

2Yr

@Finanzios oh you mean in the sense that much is written?! There are more sellers than buyers! You can tell by the fact that the price is falling!;-)

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Pascal@Finanzios

2Yr

@GordonGekko83 thanks for your great explanation 😄👍

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