What is the basis for your assumption that BAE's growth is over?
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I would also be very interested in this, especially against the background of the possible Taiwan conflict and also another attempt at Russian "territorial expansion" towards the end of this decade - according to current speculation
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@Iwanowitsch I think that things will soon calm down in Ukraine and that the share price will therefore tend to move sideways. Fantasy is gone...
@Der_Geldsammler I see it a little differently! I think Russia will be more cautious next time. And nothing will happen to Taiwan. China is also aware of what is happening in Ukraine...
But as always, nobody knows how it will turn out in the end! 😅
@Der_Geldsammler I see it a little differently! I think Russia will be more cautious next time. And nothing will happen to Taiwan. China is also aware of what is happening in Ukraine...
But as always, nobody knows how it will turn out in the end! 😅
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•I go along with your idea regarding Ukraine, there will be an (interim) solution here, whether it will be sustainable - who knows. That Russia will act more cautiously afterwards; why should this happen? I would be interested to hear your reasoning here. Personally, I tend to think that the impact on life there is calculated and that the effects of the sanctions will cause profound shortages. Historically, the population is "used" to suffering, military training in schools is being expanded and Russia is more or less independent in terms of resources; if a deficit does arise, China and India are still available. China: 2027 is the centenary "anniversary" of the People's Liberation Army, by then Taiwan should have been conquered for a united China, Xi's indirect statement. The only thing no one can predict is whether it will happen in 2026 or 2027 and if so, what the outcome will be. Basically, China will have seen from Ukraine what an unplanned process can look like. There are many scenarios, progression models etc. - But I can't imagine that nothing will happen. This may be interesting to read: https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2023/december/war-2026-phase-iii-scenario
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@Der_Geldsammler Interesting topic. I think the share price development in the defense sector will slow down. But I believe that BAE Systems and, for example, $LDO Leonardo or $HO Thales are broadly positioned. They will also be interesting for aerospace, drones and security technology.
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@Der_Geldsammler more cautious because Russia could not afford such a war again. They are already planning to spend 32% of their 2025 budget on defense. War slows down growth and I think they know that by now. Hence my assumption.
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This could of course lead to a termination for the time being.
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